Earnings projection for the end of the month

borg

« on: January 11, 2009, 05:43 »

#link

What is your earnings projection for the end of the month!?

Formula is :

(earnings monthly till now/today's date*31/earnings last month)-1

Result *100 for value in percentage...


« Last Edit: January 13, 2009, 05:38 by borg »	Ignore \| Logged

Adeptris

« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2009, 06:52 »

#link

I see a lot of these type of threads and they are not good formula's as there are to many variables that could distort the values, last month had less trading days in some contries due to the christmas break, the number of EL's, then there are buyers seasonal trends, and even the number of good trading days vary, a 31 day month starting on a monday will have 23 (weekdays) strong trading days, yet if the month starting day was on a Saturday only 21 (weekdays) strong trading days, then there is February to think about, and the number of images online.

I work in accounting software and a lot of our retail customers in the UK use what is know as 4-4-5 accounting with good reason and most compare periods this year to last year rather than period to period, so you would compare 4 or 5 trading weeks in 2009 to the same 4 or 5 trading weeks in 2008, this would show any growth or shrinkage trends, and you would also need to factor in the number of images you had or have online at the time for a better measure.

4-4-5 accounting works by ignoring the standard calendar, so your trading year and all period types will always start on a Monday and end on a Friday and have the same number of strong trading days in each, 52 weeks, 12 periods (set as 28 days, 28 days and 35 days), then 4 even 13 week (91 day) quarters and a 364 day year.

Bottom line is the only real value that matters is your yearly net profit, Sales - Costs which will also change as the cost of keeping up year on year differs.

What I would be interested in as being fairly new to stock, is the difference in revenue per image year on year from a few longer term contributors.

But as a bit of fun Huh

David


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dbajurin

« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2009, 07:18 »

#link

97%

* Adeptris do you know what the "fun" word means or you always take everything serious?


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borg

« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2009, 08:34 »

#link

I know that this is not the perfect formula with all the circumstances...
But some kind of assessment can be drawn from that...

Especially to compare percentages between contributors...

My percentage for now is -6,93 %...

This mean that January is still worse month for me than December...


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dbajurin

« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2009, 08:49 »

#link

Forgot to multiply with 31 Grin

so it is:
-22%


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bittersweet

« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2009, 09:25 »

#link

Since I didn't start getting normal sales again until the end of last week, I don't think my projection would be at all accurate.


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Adeptris

« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2009, 11:16 »

#link

Quote from: dbajurin on January 11, 2009, 07:18

97%

* Adeptris do you know what the "fun" word means or you always take everything serious?

Sorry it is just the day job kicking in! Shocked

If I took everything serious I would not be shooting stock, because if I added the kit cost, utility costs and paid myself the minimum wage for each hour I spent on my images I would be calling in the receivers Grin

But I would like to add in a slight adjustment, there were more like 17 working days in December 2008, and as at today 6 working days in January, with 15 days to come this month making 21, so how would you project from that base?

Having been stuck on the M25 for 2 hours my brain is not back fully with me yet, but lets kick off with this!

((January Sales / 6 - December Sales / 17) / January Sales / 6)*100

Test Calculation with a good January Start
January Sales 360 / 6 = 60
December Sales 510 / 17 = 30

60 - 30 / 60 * 100 = 50% Gross Increase

As of today sales would be 50% up on a December base, "I can but dream"

David Roll Eyes


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madelaide

Premium Member

« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2009, 11:42 »

#link

-6%, but I think it's going to revert to positive, as these first 11 days meant only 5 or 6 real working days.

Regards,
Adelaide


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borg

« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2009, 12:40 »

#link

Quote from: madelaide on January 11, 2009, 11:42

-6%, but I think it's going to revert to positive, as these first 11 days meant only 5 or 6 real working days.

Regards,
Adelaide

Of course,more days mean more accurate assessment...

David,this is the FORECAST from the available data,may and may not be correct...
Or, as in the economy or weather forecast,will be better with more past patterns...
You can expand the formula, add ponder on the season, part of the year, the age data etc.

Regards


« Last Edit: January 11, 2009, 12:56 by borg »	Ignore \| Logged

PixelsAway

« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2009, 12:43 »

#link

-19%

only SS is showing a growing trend in comparison to December so far (+11%)


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gostwyck

« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2009, 04:59 »

#link

It's pretty grim out there to be honest.

I reckon if you simply add up what you've earned by the first 12 days of this month (i.e. up until yesterday) and then multiply that figure by 3 then you won't be far out from the month's total.

My projections suggest that I'm only going to earn about the same this month as Dec (which itself is disastrous) and, even worse, about the same as Jan 08. Considering that I've added about 800 images in the last year and, up until this month, had usually been earning about 50% more than the same month on the previous year, that's extremely disappointing.

Maybe the 'credit crunch' is finally hitting our business?


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borg

« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2009, 05:36 »

#link

We have synergy stroke of a many circumstances, will be better...

+1,24 % projection till now


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RacePhoto

« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2009, 13:10 »

#link

Quote from: borg on January 11, 2009, 05:43

What is your earnings projection for the end of the month!?

Please ask again on the 31st. Grin

I'll take what I get and be happy.


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epixx

« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2009, 07:00 »

#link

You can't compare December with January that way. December ends with a low, while January starts with a low. The only thing that makes sense is to compare with January last year. In my case, I'm around 20% ahead so far, but there are some surprising developments.


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Perrush

« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2009, 10:25 »

#link

I think I'll come out at +20% compared to Dec and even with Nov. But I have to say I started uploading again halfway Dec from an absance of more than 1 year, so I have some new iamges being DL'ed