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Author Topic: Cap theory: does this sound familiar?  (Read 4682 times)

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namussi

« on: February 25, 2018, 04:11 »
+2
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Availability_cascade

An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing cycle that explains the development of certain kinds of collective beliefs.

A novel idea or insight, usually one that seems to explain a complex process in a simple or straightforward manner, gains rapid currency in the popular discourse by its very simplicity and by its apparent insightfulness.

Its rising popularity triggers a chain reaction within the social network: individuals adopt the new insight because other people within the network have adopted it, and on its face it seems plausible.

The reason for this increased use and popularity of the new idea involves both the availability of the previously obscure term or idea, and the need of individuals using the term or idea to appear to be current with the stated beliefs and ideas of others, regardless of whether they in fact fully believe in the idea that they are expressing.

Their need for social acceptance, and the apparent sophistication of the new insight, overwhelm their critical thinking.


« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2018, 04:16 »
+9
We get it you don't believe in capping.... ::)

namussi

« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2018, 04:54 »
+2
We get it you don't believe in capping.... ::)

Capping may exist. But so far, no-one has supplied any evidence.

« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2018, 07:20 »
+4
We get it you don't believe in capping.... ::)

Capping may exist. But so far, no-one has supplied any evidence.

Religion vs scientific method.The dialogue of the deaf

farbled

« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2018, 10:32 »
+6
We get it you don't believe in capping.... ::)

Capping may exist. But so far, no-one has supplied any evidence.

Hasn't been a compelling reason to. You have been very clear that you don't believe it, and that the topic is extremely important to you. Convincing you means nothing to me and I am not risking my account by posting numbers or screenshoting a graph for you to dispute.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2018, 10:46 by farbled »

« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2018, 11:37 »
+1
Life outside the Earth doesn't exist, there is no such thing as mass people surveillance and people aren't responsible for global warming.

There is no proof for any of these. But if you aren't a stubborn moron, you can't deny it. #Justsayin

« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2018, 13:11 »
+2
Sammy!  he doenst believe in caps! ::)

« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2018, 13:18 »
+4
Sammy!  he doenst believe in caps! ::)

Considering he doesn't believe in it he has become almost evangelical in his zeal to
disprove our heathen beliefs and turn us to the one true path of righteousness :D

« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2018, 13:40 »
+1
Sammy!  he doenst believe in caps! ::)

Considering he doesn't believe in it he has become almost evangelical in his zeal to
disprove our heathen beliefs and turn us to the one true path of righteousness :D

 ;D yes it all has an evengelical ring to it, maybe God will listen and please lift the caps??


« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2018, 14:12 »
+2
Sammy!  he doenst believe in caps! ::)

Considering he doesn't believe in it he has become almost evangelical in his zeal to
disprove our heathen beliefs and turn us to the one true path of righteousness :D

Is it just me or it is a bit strange such commitment, such zeal, just to discredit the opinion of some people who cannot present evidence because  they fear severe consequences from the agency?

Is there anything like a Shutterstock Troll Factory?  ;D

« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2018, 15:34 »
+12
I hope there is a cap to the number of capping threads a member of this forum can submit

« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2018, 15:50 »
+1
Sammy!  he doenst believe in caps! ::)

Considering he doesn't believe in it he has become almost evangelical in his zeal to
disprove our heathen beliefs and turn us to the one true path of righteousness :D

 ;D yes it all has an evengelical ring to it, maybe God will listen and please lift the caps??

I shall doff my cap to anyone who can satisfy this craving to prove caps exist or not as the case may be  ;)

« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2018, 16:34 »
+2
I hope there is a cap to the number of capping threads a member of this forum can submit


LOL! 😀👍

namussi

« Reply #13 on: February 25, 2018, 19:22 »
+1
Life outside the Earth doesn't exist, there is no such thing as mass people surveillance and people aren't responsible for global warming.

There is no proof for any of these. But if you aren't a stubborn moron, you can't deny it. #Justsayin

Big difference: tens of thousands of people with advanced scientific and statistical knowledge have analysed data (much of it shareable) and concluded there is evidence to support the theory of man-made global warming.

They publish their findings in scientific journals so that other people can criticise their findings and reasoning.

In microstock land, there are a few talented designers and photographers, who may not have backgrounds in statistics, psychology, etc, telling us to trust them that there's a cap, even though they won't or can't share their data to support their assertions.

« Last Edit: February 25, 2018, 21:56 by namussi »

farbled

« Reply #14 on: February 25, 2018, 22:32 »
0
Sammy!  he doenst believe in caps! ::)

Considering he doesn't believe in it he has become almost evangelical in his zeal to
disprove our heathen beliefs and turn us to the one true path of righteousness :D

Is it just me or it is a bit strange such commitment, such zeal, just to discredit the opinion of some people who cannot present evidence because  they fear severe consequences from the agency?

Is there anything like a Shutterstock Troll Factory?  ;D
It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

namussi

« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2018, 23:35 »
0

It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

Clear only now?  ;D

« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2018, 01:54 »
0
Sammy!  he doenst believe in caps! ::)

Considering he doesn't believe in it he has become almost evangelical in his zeal to
disprove our heathen beliefs and turn us to the one true path of righteousness :D

 ;D yes it all has an evengelical ring to it, maybe God will listen and please lift the caps??

I shall doff my cap to anyone who can satisfy this craving to prove caps exist or not as the case may be  ;)


Knowing this crowd you just wait until this hits them month after month and sometimes a whole weeks takings where every day just differs in cents!  then we will hear a different tune. Thats the trouble these ghostbusters have no reason to believe nor understand a cap, YET!


« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2018, 06:51 »
+4
Does the "cap" mean that I can expect a massive surge in sales over the next couple of days to bring me up to my official cap level for the month?

SpaceStockFootage

  • Space, Sci-Fi and Astronomy Related Stock Footage

« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2018, 06:53 »
+1
I ain't afraid of no ghost.

SpaceStockFootage

  • Space, Sci-Fi and Astronomy Related Stock Footage

« Reply #19 on: February 26, 2018, 06:55 »
+3
Does the "cap" mean that I can expect a massive surge in sales over the next couple of days to bring me up to my official cap level for the month?

Absolutely! There's a lower cap as well... it's variable, but it just happens to be one cent less than your actual monthly earnings. The upper cap is one cent more.

farbled

« Reply #20 on: February 26, 2018, 11:13 »
0

It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

Clear only now?  ;D
Hahaha, you got me. Ok but I figured it out. I inadvertently had my monitor upside down these last ten or so years and never noticed. My graph was flat on the bottom, not the top! There is no cap. Whew!

namussi

« Reply #21 on: February 26, 2018, 19:44 »
+3

It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

Clear only now?  ;D
Hahaha, you got me. Ok but I figured it out. I inadvertently had my monitor upside down these last ten or so years and never noticed. My graph was flat on the bottom, not the top! There is no cap. Whew!

Something like this?

« Last Edit: February 26, 2018, 20:06 by namussi »

namussi

« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2018, 20:14 »
+2

It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

Clear only now?  ;D
Hahaha, you got me. Ok but I figured it out. I inadvertently had my monitor upside down these last ten or so years and never noticed. My graph was flat on the bottom, not the top! There is no cap. Whew!

The law of diminishing returns explains what's happening quite well. The phenomenon appears in all sorts of industries and markets. There's no need for a malicious capping algorithm to limit your returns. It just happens.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diminishing_returns

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lawofdiminishingmarginalreturn.asp


namussi

« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2018, 20:17 »
0
I hope there is a cap to the number of capping threads a member of this forum can submit

I've started two threads. What's my quota?

farbled

« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2018, 21:09 »
0

It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

Clear only now?  ;D
Hahaha, you got me. Ok but I figured it out. I inadvertently had my monitor upside down these last ten or so years and never noticed. My graph was flat on the bottom, not the top! There is no cap. Whew!

The law of diminishing returns explains what's happening quite well. The phenomenon appears in all sorts of industries and markets. There's no need for a malicious capping algorithm to limit your returns. It just happens.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diminishing_returns

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lawofdiminishingmarginalreturn.asp



Cool, still looks nothing like mine but OK. No cap. Happy?

namussi

« Reply #25 on: February 26, 2018, 21:19 »
0

It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

Clear only now?  ;D
Hahaha, you got me. Ok but I figured it out. I inadvertently had my monitor upside down these last ten or so years and never noticed. My graph was flat on the bottom, not the top! There is no cap. Whew!

The law of diminishing returns explains what's happening quite well. The phenomenon appears in all sorts of industries and markets. There's no need for a malicious capping algorithm to limit your returns. It just happens.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diminishing_returns

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lawofdiminishingmarginalreturn.asp



Cool, still looks nothing like mine but OK. No cap. Happy?

I'm not saying there isn't a cap. But there are plenty of well-tested explanations for what people might be experiencing that are far simpler than a malicious algorithm.

I have yet to see any robust evidence of a cap.

What does your graph look like?
« Last Edit: February 26, 2018, 21:22 by namussi »

farbled

« Reply #26 on: February 26, 2018, 21:48 »
+1
You dont see any evidence because you have a different result.


namussi

« Reply #27 on: February 26, 2018, 21:56 »
0
You dont see any evidence because you have a different result.

I'm not seeing any evidence because no-one is showing me any.

Do you think the law of diminishing returns applies to you?

farbled

« Reply #28 on: February 26, 2018, 22:01 »
+1
You dont see any evidence because you have a different result.

I'm not seeing any evidence because no-one is showing me any.

Do you think the law of diminishing returns applies to you?
And it looks like no one is going to, you haven't supplied a compelling reason for anyone to do so. For me, this was mildly interesting but now I am out.

« Reply #29 on: February 27, 2018, 00:48 »
0

It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

Clear only now?  ;D
Hahaha, you got me. Ok but I figured it out. I inadvertently had my monitor upside down these last ten or so years and never noticed. My graph was flat on the bottom, not the top! There is no cap. Whew!

Something like this?

That graph doesn't make sense. Why would the quality of work and amount of work you are creating decline the more effort you put into producing it? It's nonsense.

SpaceStockFootage

  • Space, Sci-Fi and Astronomy Related Stock Footage

« Reply #30 on: February 27, 2018, 01:39 »
0
That graph doesn't make sense. Why would the quality of work and amount of work you are creating decline the more effort you put into producing it? It's nonsense.

It kind of works, and it kind of also doesn't work... so it's only semi-nonsense! I think the wording on the axis kind of ruins it. The more work you put in and the more quality you produce, the better... I don't think anyone is doubting that. But I think the concept of diminishing returns works better when you're talking about working on just one thing.

So, say you spent 10 minutes on post processing a single image. That would be in the first third of the chart. If you spent 100 minutes, then you're firmly in the second third of the chart. Spend 1000 minutes and you're then in the last third of the chart.

Like a $250m blockbuster that rakes in $1bn at the box office. If the budget was $2.5bn instead, it's unlikely it would take $1tn. But then you could extrapolate out and say that creating and selling stock is 'one thing'... and then it doesn't really work. work more and create more... and you'll earn more. If you're creating the same quality, commercial viability and variety... then working twice as much should make you (around) twice as much. The levelling of the curve isn't due to diminishing returns though... it's more to do with increased competition, and falsely inflated percentage gains in the early years.   

So yeah, the concept of diminishing returns is a proven one, but I'm not sure it really works that well with the stock model. The curves levelling out are similar though to what you see from a lot of authors though, but that's usually due to the inability to double your portfolio every year, combined with increased competition.   
 

« Reply #31 on: February 27, 2018, 02:43 »
0

It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

Clear only now?  ;D
Hahaha, you got me. Ok but I figured it out. I inadvertently had my monitor upside down these last ten or so years and never noticed. My graph was flat on the bottom, not the top! There is no cap. Whew!

Something like this?

That graph doesn't make sense. Why would the quality of work and amount of work you are creating decline the more effort you put into producing it? It's nonsense.

Really Simon!  pop into the GI forum and speak to us house-photographers!  quality do not pay! very seldom the agency output matches the photographers input nowadays!  and this is the place where quality and work really should make a difference!

The only places left where quality/work still means something and where buyers also are prepared to pay good money are the smaller what we call boutique agencies normally associated with creative buyers working on a brief or something and thats why they are prepared to pay!
« Last Edit: February 27, 2018, 05:37 by derek »

« Reply #32 on: February 27, 2018, 03:18 »
0

It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

Clear only now?  ;D
Hahaha, you got me. Ok but I figured it out. I inadvertently had my monitor upside down these last ten or so years and never noticed. My graph was flat on the bottom, not the top! There is no cap. Whew!

Something like this?

That graph doesn't make sense. Why would the quality of work and amount of work you are creating decline the more effort you put into producing it? It's nonsense.
I think it makes sense up to the point it flattens. The quality of work increases by say 50% the year you start along with the %age increase in port. Ten years in its much harder to increase quality as you are already much better so maybe 5% similarly size of port. When you add the factor of an exponential increase in competition that would explain a downturn.

« Reply #33 on: February 27, 2018, 03:39 »
+1

It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

Clear only now?  ;D
Hahaha, you got me. Ok but I figured it out. I inadvertently had my monitor upside down these last ten or so years and never noticed. My graph was flat on the bottom, not the top! There is no cap. Whew!

Something like this?

That graph doesn't make sense. Why would the quality of work and amount of work you are creating decline the more effort you put into producing it? It's nonsense.
I think it makes sense up to the point it flattens. The quality of work increases by say 50% the year you start along with the %age increase in port. Ten years in its much harder to increase quality as you are already much better so maybe 5% similarly size of port. When you add the factor of an exponential increase in competition that would explain a downturn.

That's not what the axes say they are representing. There are certainly diminishing returns in stock but it's not got much to do with the labels put on that graph. The key factors are age of files, number of files in your port and the number of files in total ... at least, those are some of the keys, just off the top of my head.

« Reply #34 on: February 27, 2018, 04:12 »
+1
That's not what the axes say they are representing. There are certainly diminishing returns in stock but it's not got much to do with the labels put on that graph. The key factors are age of files, number of files in your port and the number of files in total ... at least, those are some of the keys, just off the top of my head.

You have to think relative change, not absolute.

Your increase in quality will decrease. And your quality relative to others may decrease, even if you're still increasing the quality in absolute terms.
« Last Edit: February 27, 2018, 05:20 by increasingdifficulty »

« Reply #35 on: February 27, 2018, 04:33 »
0

It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

Clear only now?  ;D
Hahaha, you got me. Ok but I figured it out. I inadvertently had my monitor upside down these last ten or so years and never noticed. My graph was flat on the bottom, not the top! There is no cap. Whew!

Something like this?

That graph doesn't make sense. Why would the quality of work and amount of work you are creating decline the more effort you put into producing it? It's nonsense.
I think it makes sense up to the point it flattens. The quality of work increases by say 50% the year you start along with the %age increase in port. Ten years in its much harder to increase quality as you are already much better so maybe 5% similarly size of port. When you add the factor of an exponential increase in competition that would explain a downturn.

That's not what the axes say they are representing. There are certainly diminishing returns in stock but it's not got much to do with the labels put on that graph. The key factors are age of files, number of files in your port and the number of files in total ... at least, those are some of the keys, just off the top of my head.
Yes you are right....I don't think those axes reflect properly the law as I understand it I didn't read it closely enough. The Y axis should be "Total Return" or similar.

Uncle Pete

  • Great Place by a Great Lake - My Home Port
« Reply #36 on: February 27, 2018, 09:40 »
0

Cool, still looks nothing like mine but OK. No cap. Happy?

Which agencies are capping you, I wonder which haven't? You must be on many different marketers sites. Seems like lots of video people are seeing a drop at P5 so I wonder which photo sites are capping us.


SpaceStockFootage

  • Space, Sci-Fi and Astronomy Related Stock Footage

« Reply #37 on: February 27, 2018, 20:23 »
+1
I can only assume there's been some kind of search change on Pond5, as my sales have increased quite a bit in the last couple of months. That would be less likely if there was a drop in buyers at Pond5, so I'm assuming it's a search thing... could be something else!

2017 Average: $261.26
January: $532.75
February: $671.89

Tyson Anderson

  • www.openrangestudios.com
« Reply #38 on: February 27, 2018, 22:28 »
0
Oh man, I think this threading is starting to see a diminishing return

« Reply #39 on: February 28, 2018, 02:07 »
+1
I can only assume there's been some kind of search change on Pond5, as my sales have increased quite a bit in the last couple of months. That would be less likely if there was a drop in buyers at Pond5, so I'm assuming it's a search thing... could be something else!

2017 Average: $261.26
January: $532.75
February: $671.89

So far, I'm up around 70% on my 2017 average. Can't complain. Only two months, but both better than last year's Jan/Feb.

namussi

« Reply #40 on: February 28, 2018, 03:40 »
0

It's now clear: So he "can criticise their findings and reasoning."

Clear only now?  ;D
Hahaha, you got me. Ok but I figured it out. I inadvertently had my monitor upside down these last ten or so years and never noticed. My graph was flat on the bottom, not the top! There is no cap. Whew!

Something like this?

That graph doesn't make sense. Why would the quality of work and amount of work you are creating decline the more effort you put into producing it? It's nonsense.
I think it makes sense up to the point it flattens. The quality of work increases by say 50% the year you start along with the %age increase in port. Ten years in its much harder to increase quality as you are already much better so maybe 5% similarly size of port. When you add the factor of an exponential increase in competition that would explain a downturn.

That's not what the axes say they are representing. There are certainly diminishing returns in stock but it's not got much to do with the labels put on that graph. The key factors are age of files, number of files in your port and the number of files in total ... at least, those are some of the keys, just off the top of my head.
Yes you are right....I don't think those axes reflect properly the law as I understand it I didn't read it closely enough. The Y axis should be "Total Return" or similar.

Apologies. I should have used a better graph.

niktol

« Reply #41 on: February 28, 2018, 08:41 »
+1
I should buy me a dog and call him Cap. Then there won't be a question "is there or isn't there a cap?". The question will change to "who is a good cap?".

« Reply #42 on: February 28, 2018, 09:03 »
+2
I should buy me a dog and call him Cap. Then there won't be a question "is there or isn't there a cap?". The question will change to "who is a good cap?".
Or buy a cap and embroid "Shutterstock" on it....definite proof there's a Shutterstock Cap then.

« Reply #43 on: February 28, 2018, 09:10 »
0
Or buy a cap and embroid "Shutterstock" on it....definite proof there's a Shutterstock Cap then.

Now that's the most sensible thing I've read today!  ;D

niktol

« Reply #44 on: February 28, 2018, 09:19 »
0
I should buy me a dog and call him Cap. Then there won't be a question "is there or isn't there a cap?". The question will change to "who is a good cap?".
Or buy a cap and embroid "Shutterstock" on it....definite proof there's a Shutterstock Cap then.

I am surprised SS doesn't sell any "iconic" merchandise. Or it does? I already have a t-shirt design in mind. It's gonna be called "great news from ShutterStock"

« Reply #45 on: February 28, 2018, 09:21 »
0
I should buy me a dog and call him Cap. Then there won't be a question "is there or isn't there a cap?".

Unless you get a "Schroedinger dog" who can simultaneously be alive and dead  ;)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat

namussi

« Reply #46 on: February 28, 2018, 19:41 »
0
Or buy a cap and embroid "Shutterstock" on it....definite proof there's a Shutterstock Cap then.

Now that's the most sensible thing I've read today!  ;D

I won't believe it until I see a picture (and even then I might think you used Photoshop)

:D


 

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