How would a recession affect microstock photography?

Whiz

« on: October 18, 2007, 11:48 »

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I know that in most cases a recession would be a negative thing, but since microstock photography is so cheap then maybe a recession wouldn't do very much damage. In fact, maybe it would actually help the microstock photography model(not that I want a recession). Companies would probably be less inclined to purchase expensive photographs from Getty, and would instead switch to iStockphoto or another similar microstock agency. And microstock photography is a world wide market, so we don't have to worry as much about a single country going into a recession. Even if it is the United States. Am I right?


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PaulieWalnuts

« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2007, 12:33 »

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Good question. I was just thinking about this same thing. I would think that existing customers would buy less due to their customers shelving marketing projects to conserve money. But like you said, some customers from macros may move to micro. Not sure if anyone really knows how this shift would increase/decrease micro sales. Seems a recession would definitely tank macro sales.


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hatman12

« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2007, 12:44 »

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There won't be a recession until the year 2012. Between 2012 and 2018 there will be a very deep recession, nearing depression levels. Interest rates will go up to much higher levels than at present. Property values will fall 50%, and indeed property values have peaked almost everywhere except Asia.

Stock photography is part of media, marketing and advertising. These areas are a 'leading indicator' and will start to slow down well in advance of the problems to be experienced in 2012 and beyond. Expenditure on marketing should start to slow modestly from 2010.

I expect demand for stock photographs to fall by up to 50% during the period 2012 to 2018 after which sales should return to peak levels.

Yes, the inexpensive prices of microstock will help protect sales during the problem period, but they will not be immune - if you like, the problem period will be akin to a summer slowdown except it will last for six years.

Sorry, but that's the way it is.


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digiology

« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2007, 13:00 »

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Holy doom and gloom Hatman! Interesting perspective though...


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Pixart

« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2007, 13:28 »

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Sheesh, Hatman. Are you one of those Zweig Wall Street Underground subscribers?


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Kngkyle

« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2007, 14:09 »

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A recession would turn more buyers to microstock from macrostock.


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grp_photo

« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2007, 14:10 »

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A recession hit all people hard but even more people which are working in design professions. The first thing people save costs when its getting harder is always design art etc.. A recession would hit microstock as hard as traditional stock maybe some buyers of traditional stock would buy micro instead but a lot of buyers wouldn't buy at all because it's not really necessary.
The volume of traditional stock is also completely overestimated by most micropeople, the volume (picturewise not moneywise) of microstock is already much, much higher than the volume of traditional stock so even if all traditional buyers would switch and buy microstock right now instead than there still would be not much more volume in microstock.


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hatman12

« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2007, 15:01 »

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Inflation is coming. It is already bubbling away under the surface. Prices of hard and soft commodities are rising at a rapid rate. In the early stages of inflation, manufacturers try to contain price rises to remain competitive. But eventually they have to give way. Wheat is up 50% in the last year. All base and precious metals prices are being driven upwards. Inflation is coming.

It will appear 'all of a sudden' and interest rates will rise rapidly to try to solve to inflationary problem.

But the instability of the financial system as shown by the 'sudden appearance' of the sub-prime problems a couple of months ago will still be there. The combination of inflation and high interest rates, coupled with too much debt (and sub-prime debt in particular) will result in a period of hardship.

The impact will be felt globally because of the global nature of money and risk diversification.

Bad times are coming. They will start in March or July 2012 and last six years.


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Read_My_Rights

« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2007, 15:01 »

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exactly my sentiment grp_photo


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sharpshot

« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2007, 15:18 »

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Quote from: hatman12 on October 18, 2007, 12:44

Sorry, that is just your opinion, not the way it is. I have seen so many economic predictions go wrong, I no longer believe that anyone can give an accurate forecast. There could be a recession, there could be a boom, nobody knows and it is a waste of time guessing.


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hatman12

« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2007, 15:49 »

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Quite right sharpshot - it's just my view.

Of course anything can and will happen.


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gbcimages

« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2007, 16:20 »

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it's going to happen one of these days.


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cameraB

« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2007, 16:23 »

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Quote from: hatman12 on October 18, 2007, 12:44

There won't be a recession until the year 2012.... Between 2012 and 2018 there will be a very deep recession... I expect demand for stock photographs to fall by up to 50% during the period 2012 to 2018 after which sales should return to peak levels....

If such a prediction were to take place even if the years or the magnitude were off by X amount... one more factor is the ongoing growth of total customers (and their total dollars) who are purchasing stock images.

There are millions of people in the Oct 2007 world who have NO internet access now, but in 2012 will be purchasing stock images and other e-commerce.

What volume compared to today or compared to the "first year" or middle of a global recession I won't venture to guess. :-)


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Pixart

« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2007, 16:30 »

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The only thing I can comment on for fact is that wheat has indeed jumped in price, but it is due to several factors; mainly a worldwide shortage: drought in Australia, fires and North American farmers abandoning wheat crops to plant corn and canola for the purpose of converting to ethanol. This has a wider impact because more and more crops that were produced for cattle feed or fertilizer is being used for another purpose - which impacts the price of meat, dairy, and other crops.

And what camerab said is right, this industry is still in its infancy and somewhat unknown to office workers making powerpoints or church bulletins. However, what happens to our collective database when the JPEG technology becomes obsolete?


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hatman12

« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2007, 18:55 »

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Quite right cameraB. By my estimation we have four more years of 'good times' and the microstock market will continue to grow in that period.

Although I expect bad times between those years 2012 to 2018, the 'drop' in activity for microstock might indeed be from much higher levels than we presently enjoy.


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cameraB

« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2007, 22:26 »

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There's another interesting question Pixart - what will happen when JPEG images are eclipsed by their replacement format?

I guess there will be an overlap of formats, not an overnight change, but it's really not something we can do anything about now other than recognizing that today's high-quality hi-res images won't always be perceived that way. The millions of JPG stock images will need to be re-shot (subject matter yes, but image format too).

I wonder how soon the day will arrive when a JPG image actually becomes as inaccessible as a WordPerfect 5.1 file, diskette, Zip disk, 8-track cartridge, vinyl LP, or for that matter a B/W negative strip.

Even .BMP files, not so long ago a common format for 8 bit images, I don't think today's web browsers can display the image they contain.

Sorry for the thread tangent, nothing to do with recession.


« Last Edit: October 18, 2007, 23:44 by cameraB »	Ignore \| Logged

ozbandit

« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2007, 00:29 »

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I disagree hatman, I think it will happen in January 2012 Roll Eyes


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snem

« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2007, 05:24 »

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Maybe in 2012 I would get a broadband connection... and 2012 will be my BOOM year! Grin


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epixx

« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2007, 21:42 »

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Quote from: cameraB on October 18, 2007, 22:26

Jpeg seems to be a survivor, just like the fax, which has been obsolete technology almost since it was conceived.

The problem with any replacement for jpeg is that there will be economic interests involved. Since jpeg is good enough for most uses, there isn't really much incentive to replace it. Not being dependent on any particular hardware, like most technologies that become obsolete, there isn't any reason for anyone to throw it out.

The exception is obviously companies like Microsoft, but when they launch a new format, it's to make a profit, and users know that, so they are not buying.

What happened with the FAT standard (hard-disk formating) was a lesson for everyone. MS waited until all card and camera manufacturers had implemented the standard until they made them aware of the fact that they were entitled to a license fee. Every time you take a photo, it say "pling" in the cash registers in Seattle Undecided


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cameraB

« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2007, 15:55 »

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Quote from: epixx on October 27, 2007, 21:42

Jpeg seems to be a survivor, just like the fax, which has been obsolete technology almost since it was conceived.

Speaking of fax, I'm very tempted to eliminate ours (the phone line, the machine, everything) within the next few months. 98% of our fax traffic is "fax spam." But in a few occasions we need it to transfer an analog sheet of paper or signature etc. Sigh.

Microsoft's new JPG replacement proposal - I do have to admin I'm VERY skeptical - Microsoft has almost NO intersection whatsoever with the concept of truly OPEN standards. I agree, if history is any indicator, they're doing it for money and strategic control, not because they care about next generation open standards.


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Phil

« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2007, 19:38 »

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The irony I have, is last year I bought a lot of gear from the the US and payed about US$1 = AU $1.35 (still cheaper than buying here), this year when I not buying much, but I am receiving $US dollars US$1 = AU $1.07 and dropping Sad

. so it seems this will get worse too?

<snip>
Bad times are coming. They will start in March or July 2012 and last six years.
<end>

You wouldn't happen to have a lot of brothers and a very colourful coat would you?? Grin

if we take a historical view, perhaps we should put aside images for the next 5-6 years to see us through the following 6 years??? Grin

(this is only a joke, please take in that context)


« Last Edit: October 28, 2007, 20:38 by rustyphil »	Ignore \| Logged

null

« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2007, 00:58 »

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Quote from: hatman12 on October 18, 2007, 12:44

Great! I like your crystal ball. Could you advise me also what stock to buy now? ;-)

On a lighter note, I'm more worried about the bad USD-EUR exchange rate. I leave all on Paypal in USD now, in the vain hope the USD would soar against the EUR.


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null

« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2007, 01:05 »

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Quote from: sharpshot on October 18, 2007, 15:18

I have seen so many economic predictions go wrong, I no longer believe that anyone can give an accurate forecast.

I beg to disagree. I can make very sound predictions about the USD-EUR rate for instance.
1 - It will go up.
2 - It will go down.
3 - It will stay the same.

Grin


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