Author Topic: August off to terrible start (Read 18225 times)

stockmarketer · « **on:** August 04, 2012, 17:07 »

And I thought July was bad.

August 1 thru 4 have been TERRIBLE.

Today, Saturday the 4th, may end up being the worst day of the year.

Looking back at my data, it does appear that the first half of August is typically pretty low, and things start picking up in the second half.

But for the first time ever, I'm tracking behind year-ago levels. My July numbers ended up about 40% better than year-ago. But for the first four days of August, I'm trailing year-ago.

Is your August terrible, too? I'm particularly interested in hearing from people who had good sales in July (compared to 2011).

cthoman · « **Reply #1 on:** August 04, 2012, 17:17 »

Way too early for me, but it seems fairly normal so far.

aeonf · « **Reply #2 on:** August 04, 2012, 17:20 »

A bit early, don't you think ?
Patience and optimism are good qualities

stockmarketer · « **Reply #3 on:** August 04, 2012, 17:56 »

Quote from: aeonf on August 04, 2012, 17:20

A bit early, don't you think ?
Patience and optimism are good qualities

I hope you're right, that I'm too quickly concluding that the sky is falling. But I've seen chunks of sky falling on my lawn for four days straight. At what number of days is it "real"?

One day of curious data can be an anomaly.

Then one or two more days of similar data can be a coincidence.

But a fourth day of similar data suggests there is an actual trend under way.

I'm seeing a definite trend, particularly when this period is compared to the same period a year ago (first Wed, Thur, Fri and Sat of Aug.)

Perry · « **Reply #4 on:** August 04, 2012, 18:42 »

July was BME for me, but August has started very slowly. Of course it's a bit early to tell, but I sure hope things will pick up soon...

oxman · « **Reply #5 on:** August 04, 2012, 18:51 »

Dude chill -- it has only been four days and one was a weekend.

sharpshot · « **Reply #6 on:** August 05, 2012, 01:46 »

August 1 thru 4? I think time periods of a few days are meaningless. I only check my total earnings at the end of each month now. Worrying about every few isn't worth it. There's so many external factors that could affect sales. I don't think many people in the UK are doing much work now, far too busy watching the Olympics. The last few weeks of August will probably make up for it.

Karimala · « **Reply #7 on:** August 05, 2012, 05:30 »

A few days means nothing. A few months? Now that's a trend worth noting! "The sky is falling" is what's happening to me at Fotolia, where my income has dropped an unprecedented 78% since the first of the year.

For almost 7 straight years, I'd been earning multiple payouts per month. The last two months, I've made one. When stuff like that starts happening, that's when you start worrying about negative trends.

Microbius · « **Reply #8 on:** August 05, 2012, 06:40 »

Quote from: sharpshot on August 05, 2012, 01:46

August 1 thru 4? I think time periods of a few days are meaningless. I only check my total earnings at the end of each month now. Worrying about every few isn't worth it. There's so many external factors that could affect sales. I don't think many people in the UK are doing much work now, far too busy watching the Olympics. The last few weeks of August will probably make up for it.

And it's got the biggest viewing figures in the US for any non US Olympics since the one in Montreal in the 70s, so bound to have an impact on sales over the weekend.
Keeping my fingers crossed for you for the rest of the month, I'm sure it will pick up.

Batman · « **Reply #9 on:** August 05, 2012, 21:03 »

Quote from: oxman on August 04, 2012, 18:51

Dude chill -- it has only been four days and one was a weekend.

+1

EmberMike · « **Reply #10 on:** August 05, 2012, 22:42 »

My August looks good so far. And what does that tell you about August? Absolutely nothing.

nicku · « **Reply #11 on:** August 06, 2012, 00:11 »

Quote from: stockmarketer on August 04, 2012, 17:07

And I thought July was bad.

August 1 thru 4 have been TERRIBLE.

Today, Saturday the 4th, may end up being the worst day of the year.

Looking back at my data, it does appear that the first half of August is typically pretty low, and things start picking up in the second half.

But for the first time ever, I'm tracking behind year-ago levels. My July numbers ended up about 40% better than year-ago. But for the first four days of August, I'm trailing year-ago.

Is your August terrible, too? I'm particularly interested in hearing from people who had good sales in July (compared to 2011).

I don't expect miracles to happen in August , considering that is the holidays month in most of the countries. A average month will be ok for me.

PinnacleAnimates · « **Reply #12 on:** August 06, 2012, 02:00 »

Yes it is slow.... may be due to Olympics or whatever be the reason. But its 5-6 days only of the month. Hope for good days ahead

ShadySue · « **Reply #13 on:** August 07, 2012, 17:11 »

I'm getting very nervous now. 0 on Sat; 0 on Sun, 1 yesterday, 0 today.
I'm trying to believe it's the Olympics, but I was out and about today and it seems to be 'business as usual'.
It's much worse than previous Augusts, so I don't think it's just that a lot of countries have their holidays now.

Freedom · « **Reply #14 on:** August 07, 2012, 19:44 »

Well, my July was terrible, but the first week of August looks good, even without any ELs.

ShadySue · « **Reply #15 on:** August 07, 2012, 20:01 »

Quote from: Freedom on August 07, 2012, 19:44

Well, my July was terrible, but the first week of August looks good, even without any ELs.

Maybe ebb and flow, then.

stockmarketer · « **Reply #16 on:** August 07, 2012, 22:43 »

Quote from: ShadySue on August 07, 2012, 17:11

I'm getting very nervous now. 0 on Sat; 0 on Sun, 1 yesterday, 0 today.
I'm trying to believe it's the Olympics, but I was out and about today and it seems to be 'business as usual'.
It's much worse than previous Augusts, so I don't think it's just that a lot of countries have their holidays now.

OK, I'm done chilling.

We're on day 7, and my comments from the first post on this thread are holding true. The trend is continuing. This is my first month of running behind year-ago levels. Maybe it's just me, and I've finally hit the wall. But I don't think so. I shouldn't have hit the wall on all the agencies at once, by such a wide and sudden margin. This July was up over last July by a healthy margin. But this August is down on last August by a significant amount.

Hopefully it's just the Olympics. Plus DT and FT were firing on all cylinders for me last year, and both made changes this past year that put me into the toilet. I think these are the two reasons. We'll find out soon.

Lagereek · « **Reply #17 on:** August 07, 2012, 23:58 »

No its not, micro is finished, all washed up, dried up, the world is going under. THE END IS NIGH! brace yourselves.

Artist · « **Reply #18 on:** August 08, 2012, 00:02 »

Quote from: Lagereek on August 07, 2012, 23:58

No its not, micro is finished, all washed up, dried up, the world is going under. THE END IS NIGH! brace yourselves.

The negative merchant

nicku · « **Reply #19 on:** August 08, 2012, 00:53 »

Quote from: ShadySue on August 07, 2012, 17:11

I'm getting very nervous now. 0 on Sat; 0 on Sun, 1 yesterday, 0 today.
I'm trying to believe it's the Olympics, but I was out and about today and it seems to be 'business as usual'.
It's much worse than previous Augusts, so I don't think it's just that a lot of countries have their holidays now.

Or maybe is just IS.... going down month by month.

XPTO · « **Reply #20 on:** August 08, 2012, 01:11 »

After 7 days I'm down 40% in my prediction for the month compared to last month (which was weak), and IS in particular is down by 70%!

Not good, even for August which statistically is generally better than July and even June to me.

ShadySue · « **Reply #21 on:** August 08, 2012, 02:26 »

Quote from: nicku on August 08, 2012, 00:53

Quote from: ShadySue on August 07, 2012, 17:11
I'm getting very nervous now. 0 on Sat; 0 on Sun, 1 yesterday, 0 today.
I'm trying to believe it's the Olympics, but I was out and about today and it seems to be 'business as usual'.
It's much worse than previous Augusts, so I don't think it's just that a lot of countries have their holidays now.

Or maybe is just IS.... going down month by month.

Clearly, that's the fear.

sharpshot · « **Reply #22 on:** August 08, 2012, 03:15 »

I had a look at my earnings in August 2008, when the last Olympics was on. It was slightly down on July and September that year but it was still a good month overall. I only have monthly data, so I'm not sure if earnings were down in the Olympics weeks and stronger the rest of the month. I'm not going to check this month until the 31st. Still don't see the point in getting concerned about a small downturn in a summer month, that happens all the time. People also get over excited when sales are good in the autumn, there will probably be lots of posts about a great start to the month then.

Difydave · « **Reply #23 on:** August 08, 2012, 05:14 »

Quote from: ShadySue on August 08, 2012, 02:26

Quote from: nicku on August 08, 2012, 00:53
Quote from: ShadySue on August 07, 2012, 17:11
I'm getting very nervous now. 0 on Sat; 0 on Sun, 1 yesterday, 0 today.
I'm trying to believe it's the Olympics, but I was out and about today and it seems to be 'business as usual'.
It's much worse than previous Augusts, so I don't think it's just that a lot of countries have their holidays now.

Or maybe is just IS.... going down month by month.
Clearly, that's the fear.

Nobody really knows though.
I had a bad July. Last week was pretty bad too, not disastrous, just below average.
This week looks back to slightly better than normal. (Ignoring the couple of ELs I've had which are making it look really good at the moment

The Summer slump looks like it's been more pronounced this year, and I don't like the seeming lack of stability with results going up and down in a seemingly random way day to day.

Mantis · « **Reply #24 on:** August 08, 2012, 07:23 »

Well 8 days in and the trend for me is as the OP stated. SS especially.

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Author Topic: August off to terrible start (Read 18225 times)

stockmarketer

cthoman

aeonf

stockmarketer

Perry

oxman

sharpshot

Karimala

Microbius

Batman

EmberMike

nicku

PinnacleAnimates

ShadySue

Freedom

ShadySue

stockmarketer

Lagereek

Artist

nicku

XPTO

ShadySue

sharpshot

Difydave

Mantis

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