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Author Topic: Coronavirus ?  (Read 7104 times)

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« Reply #25 on: March 11, 2020, 01:38 »
+3
My friends in Italy have been in lockdown for three weeks already. They have not been hit themselves, but describe dramatic situations.

It is not just the deaths, 15% need to be treated in the icu and need machines to help them to breathe.

It has completly overwhelmed the medical system and more and more doctors and nurses are falling ill.

They have a pharmacy, so they are used to all kinds of flu or other seasonal illnesses. Corona is absolutely nothing like it.

So people really should do everything to cut social transmission.

Here is someone reporting from Italy:

https://www.facebook.com/cristina.higgins.7/posts/10157623212885189

« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 03:38 by cobalt »


« Reply #26 on: March 11, 2020, 02:06 »
+2

Perhaps if we can be taught a money-bringing lesson from coronavirous as contributors it may be this:

we either will continue to shoot and add another batch of "people wearing surgical masks" to some thousand approved ones in all libraries and wait for those $0,20

either we will research buy and learn 3D software and be capable on how to create a virus or a futuristic virus scene.

(stock)dead simple ain't it?
 ::)

« Reply #27 on: March 11, 2020, 09:21 »
+7
Many people still argue that flu and other diseases kill more and we shouldn't worry about Covid-19. I DISAGREE TOTALLY. You have to understand, Covid-19 is just started... and it is only 3-4 months old... other diseases have been there since a long time ago, and many are not contagious. Even with the panic and fear throughout the world, the virus is still peaking its way. Imagine if nobody care and scare, how much more will the virus infects? This is no joke. Being fearful (not panic) is the only way to contain the virus. People simply have to stop going to the crowd, vacation, party, gym, wash their hands 30 times a day, and start working at home for 2 months straight. Economy will be down, but this seems to be the only way.

« Reply #28 on: March 11, 2020, 09:59 »
0

The flu has been around for thousands of years and has spread to every corner of the world... this strain of Coronavirus hasn't. Yet. It's estimate that 700m to 1.4bn people got infected with swine flu in 2009. If the same amount of people get infected with Covid-19, and the mortality rate is 3.4%, then that means 24m to 48m are going to die before this is over... and it's still in the millions if it is 1%. Although panic isn't the best approach, I think it's a good idea to be concerned.

We have done a small research with my students and created a chart in Excel comparing infections, deaths and mortality rate of bird flu, MERS, SARS, COVID-19 and swine flu. COVID-19 is (so far) absolutely nothing special and nicely fits to mathematical and statistical properties of these diseases. Higher the mortality rate, smaller the number of infections and total deaths. But the number of deaths is increasing with the decreasing the mortality rate (the number of infections is rising faster than the mortality is decreasing - if the mortality is 1000x smaller, the number of infections can be for example 100000x higher totally causing more deaths - swine flu was a very mild one which killed hundreds of thousands people whereas bird flu was almost sentence of death but it has totally killed less than 500 people). COVID-19 is one of the less severe diseases.

In the terms of revenue at microstock, I can see mild drop at AS, brutal at 123RF. Otherwise, it is pretty stable.

« Reply #29 on: March 11, 2020, 10:26 »
+1
One item they have found to be true about this virus. China's rate of smokers is four to one over western countries. Italy has a high rate of smokers in that country. Korea and Japan also has a much higher population of smokers than America. No tobacco dose not cause this virus but it may have a huge effect on the population recovering from the virus. 

« Reply #30 on: March 11, 2020, 11:36 »
+1
One item they have found to be true about this virus. China's rate of smokers is four to one over western countries. Italy has a high rate of smokers in that country. Korea and Japan also has a much higher population of smokers than America. No tobacco dose not cause this virus but it may have a huge effect on the population recovering from the virus.

Conversely, there is a lot lower obesity (another high risk factor) in those countries, whereas western countries it is at epidemic proportions in ageing populations.

« Reply #31 on: March 11, 2020, 12:01 »
+3
The travel industry is spiraling into economic depression.  I believe that will deeply impact sales of travel oriented material.  Most of my portfolio is travel related.  So, I'm lowering my lowered expectations even lower...

« Reply #32 on: March 11, 2020, 12:24 »
0
shuttersubs....adobe down practically 95% from last week.this is the end:)...time to sell equipment before every contributor do the same and market is flooded by tons of camera :)

« Reply #33 on: March 11, 2020, 13:02 »
+4
This is so crazy, now I can't tell you the future but as of now you stand a better chance of dying of heart disease, car accident, weather related injuries, cancer and the list goes on. This is still a very minor virus at this point, you still have more to fear from the flu!!

minor virus?

7% mortality...is minor? good luck

What's your source for that figure?


"What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?
It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organizations director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.
Deaths are highest in the elderly, with very low rates among younger people, although medical staff who treat patients and get exposed to a lot of virus are thought to be more at risk. But even among the over-80s, 90% will recover."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/coronavirus-facts-mortality-rate-is-there-cure

also see: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743
and https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312

the current death rate is 6%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

obviously - The rate is going down over time, but it is still very high.  Mostly for elderly or otherwise sick people.  The reason we need to help stop the spread of the virus is so that more elderly, or people with diabetes etc. don't get it.  Also it's important to slow down the spread of the virus so the hospitals don't get overloaded.   it's better if the 100.000 people that are seriously infected in your country go to the hospital over a years time as apposed to all next week.

« Reply #34 on: March 11, 2020, 18:08 »
+3
This is so crazy, now I can't tell you the future but as of now you stand a better chance of dying of heart disease, car accident, weather related injuries, cancer and the list goes on. This is still a very minor virus at this point, you still have more to fear from the flu!!

minor virus?

7% mortality...is minor? good luck

What's your source for that figure?


"What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?
It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organizations director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.
Deaths are highest in the elderly, with very low rates among younger people, although medical staff who treat patients and get exposed to a lot of virus are thought to be more at risk. But even among the over-80s, 90% will recover."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/coronavirus-facts-mortality-rate-is-there-cure

also see: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51674743
and https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312

the current death rate is 6%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

obviously - The rate is going down over time, but it is still very high.  Mostly for elderly or otherwise sick people.  The reason we need to help stop the spread of the virus is so that more elderly, or people with diabetes etc. don't get it.  Also it's important to slow down the spread of the virus so the hospitals don't get overloaded.   it's better if the 100.000 people that are seriously infected in your country go to the hospital over a years time as apposed to all next week.

Around 1 out of every 6 people who gets COVID-19 becomes seriously ill and develops difficulty breathing. Older people, and those with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, are more likely to develop serious illness
https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

SpaceStockFootage

  • Space, Sci-Fi and Astronomy Related Stock Footage

« Reply #35 on: March 11, 2020, 21:47 »
+3
It is 6% on closed cases, but the mortality rate is calculated on open and closed cases, so it's 3.66% currently. If they just calculated it using closed cases, and only one person had died but nobody had yet recovered... the mortality rate would be 100%.

« Reply #36 on: March 11, 2020, 22:11 »
+4
Mortality can also go way higher if the thing spreads more cause hospitals will lack materials starting from respirators which are saving a lot of harder cases.

Some countries lacking respirators are desperately trying to order them and demand is way higher than production rate a richer countries have already forbidden export.

There is also a fact that people are dying indirectly, an Italian doctor said today that in some hospitals they are not even looking at people that come with heart attacks, not performing any surgeries  at all cause operation rooms have been turned into isolated patients rooms because lack of space. If it spreads more people with not even get basic help for any issue anymore and it that case mortality can go waaay up then now while they still got resources in material and medical staff which is already started to be short.

And we are talking about richest Italian region with one of the better health-care systems in Europe. Some less rich countries have less than 200 respirators in whole country.

   

Brasilnut

  • Author Brutally Honest Guide to Microstock & Blog

« Reply #37 on: March 12, 2020, 03:51 »
+2

« Reply #38 on: March 12, 2020, 03:58 »
0
Hi, just some useful info about this virus and stats:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca [nofollow]

Although we dont have so manny cases yet in my country (Portugal) we are already starting mitigation phase. Last 24h there was rush in some supermarkets ending with shelves completely empty. There is no need for that since is a panic behaviour and not lack of food but people will start to do it.

Some simple steps like wash hands frequently, avoid close contact and gatherings will help to fight the spread. This is what was told by our DGS (general health directorate). 

« Reply #39 on: March 12, 2020, 05:49 »
+1
Yes at "this point" in Global terms its minor. The way exponential growth in infections works though we can be pretty sure sitting back and doing nothing will ensure it wouldn't be minor pretty soon.

Noedelhap

  • www.colincramm.com

« Reply #40 on: March 12, 2020, 08:36 »
+4
On the other hand since people can leave and still have work they will buy stock instead of shooting their own. Could be a boon for us.

No way, the entire global economy will be affected. Projects will be canceled in almost every industry, budgets will be cut, companies will lose business, employees will work fewer hours...I think stock sales will suffer badly because production goes down across the globe.

And this is only the beginning. Even though governments worldwide are doing everything they can to contain or at the least slow down the spreading of the virus, the economy will hit a recession regardless.

« Reply #41 on: March 12, 2020, 08:59 »
+6
I think the scale of the effect on a modern global economy is just beginning to dawn on people. Just in Time supply chains and the reliance on many economies on Tourism are going to cause enormous issues.


« Reply #42 on: March 12, 2020, 09:23 »
+3
Too early to know the medium/long term effect.  China are now getting essential workers back just over 100 days after the first case.  No knowing if they will have a second wave of infections as predicted by some or they could return to normal in another 100 days.  Then again if it's true that there are more than one strain and it mutates freely it could run around the world a number of times.

Would it be a good idea to get it early while they still have some respirators available?  Looks like they are going for a cull in the UK.

« Reply #43 on: March 13, 2020, 15:07 »
+7
It's wonderful how everyone from lawyer to photographer is now an expert epidemiologist. I have no idea what the best strategy for virus containment/herd immunity/healthcare impact spread is but I know if travel bookings are collapsing, airlines and booking companies are going to be advertising more and will buy pictures. What should we learn? All those companies who said their workers could not work from home now have employees working at home, which means the disabled people they didn't want to hire could also have been working from home. Oh, and public healthcare is maybe quite important, USA?

ShadySue

  • There is a crack in everything
« Reply #44 on: March 13, 2020, 18:55 »
0
This doctor is a friend of a former pupil who is now a surgical consultant in a different sphere; she endorses all he says. Jump ahead to about 0.30 for the start of the serious stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_Vau7NDjQw

« Reply #45 on: March 14, 2020, 03:12 »
+1
It's wonderful how everyone from lawyer to photographer is now an expert epidemiologist. I have no idea what the best strategy for virus containment/herd immunity/healthcare impact spread is but I know if travel bookings are collapsing, airlines and booking companies are going to be advertising more and will buy pictures. What should we learn? All those companies who said their workers could not work from home now have employees working at home, which means the disabled people they didn't want to hire could also have been working from home. Oh, and public healthcare is maybe quite important, USA?
  Where are airlines and travel companies going get this money to advertise non existent flights and holidays from? I expect some major company failures and in the short term 2-3 years a contraction in travel. I have a cruise booked. The company have just ordered their ships to come home till 24 April. They are a small player, they bought two new ships only last year I would guess on borrowed money. I wouldn't bet on them ever sailing again. Hope I'm wrong.

« Reply #46 on: March 14, 2020, 11:44 »
+3
Politics, economy, markets, is for later. The sooner you understand the sooner you think about not putting the person in front at risk. Now, nothing else matters but stopping the contagion. In a few days, what you know, your routine will disappear, your life will not be the same. It will be seen if there are cruises and sales when the epidemic expires, but now, don't infect anyone is the goal, not infect anyone. Do it for others. Each must be responsible for not infecting the rest.


Tenebroso
From Spain.






Edited to wish everyone luck. Lots, lots, lots of luck.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 11:53 by Tenebroso »

« Reply #47 on: March 14, 2020, 12:09 »
0
Politics, economy, markets, is for later. The sooner you understand the sooner you think about not putting the person in front at risk. Now, nothing else matters but stopping the contagion. In a few days, what you know, your routine will disappear, your life will not be the same. It will be seen if there are cruises and sales when the epidemic expires, but now, don't infect anyone is the goal, not infect anyone. Do it for others. Each must be responsible for not infecting the rest.


Tenebroso
From Spain.






Edited to wish everyone luck. Lots, lots, lots of luck.

If only that was true for all of us, here we are expected to acquire immunity by catching it. I don't understand why the rest of the world had not isolated us yet.

Good luck to you also,

Objowl
UK

« Reply #48 on: March 14, 2020, 17:00 »
0
Also in lockdown in Spain, it's bonkers how serious it's suddenly got. No going out unless completely necessary.
Just got to sit it out and try to slow it down as much as poss for the health services to be able to cope. And put up with a bored teenager in house ::)
I hope UK closes schools etc down soon. In the beginning I thought they were right about waiting but now I think they need to and quickly.

ShadySue

  • There is a crack in everything
« Reply #49 on: March 14, 2020, 17:19 »
+2
Also in lockdown in Spain, it's bonkers how serious it's suddenly got. No going out unless completely necessary.
Just got to sit it out and try to slow it down as much as poss for the health services to be able to cope. And put up with a bored teenager in house ::)
I hope UK closes schools etc down soon. In the beginning I thought they were right about waiting but now I think they need to and quickly.
I don't have the option of staying in, I share the care of my chairbound mother with my sister. I live c40 miles away (two trains and a bus in each direction), she lives c25 miles away. Although she has carers going in four times a day, we are really worried about what will happen if there's a lockdown - the carers don't do e.g. food shopping, washing (of which there is a full load, almost every day), emptying bins etc.
Of course, we don't want to catch the disease and spread it to her, or anyone else, during the incubation period, . Footbumps, no hugs, and blown kisses.

If they close down schools etc, who will look after the children of health / care workers? Some may live near family who are able and willing to help, some may not. So do they stay off their vital work to look after their kids, or informally make arrangements for them to be looked after in groups?
I'm glad I'm not making these decisions. I think there is a case for the concept of 'herd immunity' to prevent a major re-infection next winter, and for slowing down the virus so that the health services can cope with the most vulnerable. But there are so many factors to consider, and the scientists are still learning how this virus behaves. And I am not a scientist.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 18:12 by ShadySue »


 

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