Historically, periods of fifty or sixty years of zero returns in stock markets are not uncommon.

Where are you getting that?  What data are you using?  Considering MODERN capital markets have only been around for at most 150 years, the quoted comment is baseless.  Perhaps in third world countries where annual growth is non-existent.  The established North American and European markets have been able to record somewhat consistent growth over long periods of time.  For example, when I was editing textbooks and doing the work, some basic research data easily shows that:  If you invested $1 in the TSX index in the 1950s you'd have more than $80 today even with massive losses some years (I'm sorry but I cannot remember the exact values)

Japan is a bad example to use due to other issues that have plagued the country.  Even still, the Japanese dont' seem to be doing so badly.

Bottom line is this: a balanced investment portfolio will be able to perform well into the future and provide a very good return

If anyone wants to give me 5 million dollars, I can demonstrate

Perhaps in third world countries where annual growth is non-existent. 

Actually, money is moving to those countries that have been showing above average growth... My own little Panama has had a growth over 10% and even Venezuela, with their madman as president, has shown big growth....

This is very unlikely.  VERY unlikely.  The US stock market is approaching a peak in a long bull market that started way back in 1906. ... In a long bull market spanning generations, people forget the true realties and live life with their heads buried in sand.

ROTFL. The second statement is applicable to the first, and the whole post in general that matter. It also shows a lack of knowledge about the US stock market. "long bull market that started way back in 1906" is a complete fallacy. The crashes of October 29, 1929 and October 19, 1987 come to mind. But beyond that there have been 23 bear markets in the US market which average about  1 year.

Please, lets stick with actual facts rather than unsubstantiated statements that border on lunacy.

Thank you for your comments Yingyang.  Just because my view differs from yours doesn't mean that I am a lunatic.  A man with your knowledge and experience should know better than that and refrain from such comments.

For your information, before moving to start a new life here in Australia, I spent twenty years working as a Fund Manager responsible for managing large sums of money in global equity markets.  As part of my work I studied the history of financial trends going back hundreds of years.  I have appeared as a guest on CNN, Bloomberg Television and BBC many times and my views and observations have been published in the world's financial press more times than I can remember.

Please don't assume that just because you disagree with my comments I lack sufficient knowledge.

hatman, I am sure you know what you are talking about but I remember reading a book about Jesse Livermore, one of the great stock traders.  He went broke once anticipating the top of the market.  None of us can say for sure that the bull market is about to end.

Thank you for your comments Yingyang.  Just because my view differs from yours doesn't mean that I am a lunatic.  A man with your knowledge and experience should know better than that and refrain from such comments.

For your information, before moving to start a new life here in Australia, I spent twenty years working as a Fund Manager responsible for managing large sums of money in global equity markets.  As part of my work I studied the history of financial trends going back hundreds of years.  I have appeared as a guest on CNN, Bloomberg Television and BBC many times and my views and observations have been published in the world's financial press more times than I can remember.

Please don't assume that just because you disagree with my comments I lack sufficient knowledge.

It wasn't a lack of knowledge, or a difference in views, that drew my comment it was the completely baseless statements, if not falsification of the facts. I'd all like to point out that calling statements crazy is different than calling a person crazy. Below I outline your claims and the facts and/or my opinions as applicable.

Hatman Claims:
1) "The US stock market is approaching a peak in a long bull market that started way back in 1906.  All the impressive numbers put out by marketing people are based on a bull market that will NOT be sustained."
2) "The cracks are already showing by the sub prime problems, which are only the tip of the iceberg."
3) "Haven't you noticed the Japanese market?  Peaked in 1990 at 39,000 and now, nearly twenty years later, it is still down at 14,000.  It is not likely to regain that 39,000 peak for at least another twenty years, perhaps longer."
4) "Financial markets can have very long periods of zero or negative returns, and people have forgotten that.  There is a rude awakening coming, and has already started."
5) "Historically, periods of fifty or sixty years of zero returns in stock markets are not uncommon."

My Responses to each claim:
1) It may be your opinion that the US market is approaching a peak, but it is a complete falsehood that there has been a bull market since 1906 and I would expect someone with 20 years experience not to make such false claims. As I said eariler, the truth is there have been 23 bear markets since 1906 (not including the current market downturn).

2) We disagree about the sub prime problems being the tip of the iceberg but this one is just a difference of opinion rather than a falsehood.

3) Yes the Japanese market peeked in 1990, and it took until 2003 to bottom. However it is disingenuous to compare the Japanese market to the US market, because you and I both know that the stagnation was caused by uniquely Japanese problems which were wholely unrelated to the current problem in the US banking system. The problems in the japanese banking system weren't fixed until 2002.

4) Yes there can be long periods of zero of negative returns, but long is relative (see the actual facts below).

5) Since the US Federal Reserve was created in 1913 (as anyone with any knowledge of economics knows, comparing to anything previous to the creation of the Fed is usless) the average bear market showed a decrease of 32.7% and lasted 1 year and 2 months.  The shortest bear market was the crash in 1987, which lasted less than two months. The longest bear market occurred between November 1938 and April 1942. 

The fact is you made a few outright false statements and may disingenuous one. To quote you "A man with your knowledge and experience should know better than that and refrain from such comments".

China is the next great bull market.

...reminds me a lot of the 1920s.

Well, we agree on something.

Back to Microstock...

.