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Author Topic: What will a rotten economy do to the stock market(this one)?  (Read 9021 times)

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« on: September 26, 2008, 17:30 »
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I am surprised this isn't being discussed at all. Hopefully things will straighten out and we will only have a mild recession. But what if the doomsayers are right and we are going into another great depression? Or even just a severe recession? Any predictions on what that would do to our sales? Can we forget about making any serious money with this if a real depression comes?


« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2008, 18:44 »
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I'd have to think that picture sales tend to get depressed along with the economy. I'm sure that's what's at the root of a lot of complaints on lack and diminishing sales here. You don't need a lot of advertising when you're living out of your Buick.

« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2008, 19:23 »
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Wal-Mart stock is at a 52 week high.  Are things really that bad?

5 dollar/gallon heating oil this winter is gonna hurt though.    Buy gold. 



vonkara

« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2008, 19:35 »
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Buying microstock images is too inexpensive. Just start shooting people in a without money situation LOL. At least I think??

« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2008, 20:17 »
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There could be a market there  ;D

Just find your local skid row and ask the homeless if you can shoot them.
Of course offer a couple of bucks for them to sign a release.... cheap models yes?

Maybe some financial institution can use it in an advertisement for their next round of predatory sub prime lending.

« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2008, 21:40 »
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I am surprised this isn't being discussed at all. Hopefully things will straighten out and we will only have a mild recession. But what if the doomsayers are right and we are going into another great depression? Or even just a severe recession? Any predictions on what that would do to our sales? Can we forget about making any serious money with this if a real depression comes?

It will be a severe recession that will end in 2-4 years.  Do no expect during that time to earn as much as you do now.

« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2008, 00:27 »
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When I have to sell my camera to buy food, then I will worry, but not before.  ;) ;D

« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2008, 00:36 »
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No depression.  Not happening.  Not yet.  Relax.  Buy gold.   http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=pmu

« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2008, 01:42 »
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An idea I have seen expressed on microstock forums is that a deep recession could increase sales, because publishers and designers will be looking for ways to save money, and will cut back on hiring photographers or going to Getty and will look for bargains.

It should also be kept in mind that a recession or even depression in the US may not have a deeply negative effect worldwide. Germany for example is a large market for microstock and the German economy need not suffer just because the US is hurting. The euro could benefit from an ever-weakening dollar.

« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2008, 03:16 »
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I am surprised this isn't being discussed at all. Hopefully things will straighten out and we will only have a mild recession. But what if the doomsayers are right and we are going into another great depression? Or even just a severe recession? Any predictions on what that would do to our sales? Can we forget about making any serious money with this if a real depression comes?

It will be a severe recession that will end in 2-4 years.  Do no expect during that time to earn as much as you do now.

That's a bold statement and is something you can't possibly know for sure.  Reminds me of a quote, "Prediction is very hard, especially when it's about the future."

Even if you are right, some sectors will not experience a big downturn.  Perhaps microstock will be one of them?  Magazines and newspapers might make cut backs but they might switch from traditional agencies.  The internet might grow enough to counter negative economic effects.  The only prediction I am sure about is none of us know for sure what is going to happen.

« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2008, 04:15 »
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Maybe slowdown a bit, but after will reach old direction...

« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2008, 18:46 »
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An idea I have seen expressed on microstock forums is that a deep recession could increase sales, because publishers and designers will be looking for ways to save money, and will cut back on hiring photographers or going to Getty and will look for bargains.

It should also be kept in mind that a recession or even depression in the US may not have a deeply negative effect worldwide. Germany for example is a large market for microstock and the German economy need not suffer just because the US is hurting. The euro could benefit from an ever-weakening dollar.

I don't buy this argument because the total market for traditional stock, in terms of the volume of images licensed, is a minute fraction of the microstock market. It would be about like all the customers going from Featurpics and Canstock to the other agencies and noticeably increasing the sales volume at Shutterstock and IStock. As you know, the relatively rare sales at those two sites would not have a noticeable impact on the high volume microstock sites. Same with traditional stock where the sales are few and far between and the only reason they make money is on price per image licensed.

« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2008, 03:49 »
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An idea I have seen expressed on microstock forums is that a deep recession could increase sales, because publishers and designers will be looking for ways to save money, and will cut back on hiring photographers or going to Getty and will look for bargains.

It should also be kept in mind that a recession or even depression in the US may not have a deeply negative effect worldwide. Germany for example is a large market for microstock and the German economy need not suffer just because the US is hurting. The euro could benefit from an ever-weakening dollar.

I don't buy this argument because the total market for traditional stock, in terms of the volume of images licensed, is a minute fraction of the microstock market. It would be about like all the customers going from Featurpics and Canstock to the other agencies and noticeably increasing the sales volume at Shutterstock and IStock. As you know, the relatively rare sales at those two sites would not have a noticeable impact on the high volume microstock sites. Same with traditional stock where the sales are few and far between and the only reason they make money is on price per image licensed.

I don't believe that.  The sales volume of Getty, Corbis, Jupiter etc. can't be compared to Featurpics and Canstock.  There is still a big traditional market.  I see photos from the traditional agencies in papers, magazines, books, cards, calendars etc. all the time.  Obviously they won't sell as many licenses as shutterstock but if the buyers switch over, they are likely to download a lot more.

grp_photo

« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2008, 06:03 »
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I don't believe that.  The sales volume of Getty, Corbis, Jupiter etc. can't be compared to Featurpics and Canstock.  There is still a big traditional market.  I see photos from the traditional agencies in papers, magazines, books, cards, calendars etc. all the time.  Obviously they won't sell as many licenses as shutterstock but if the buyers switch over, they are likely to download a lot more.
No! They won't download more why should they? I worked as photoeditor at a magazine a while ago and you simply don't work like that. Also for magazines agencies like Getty or Corbis are not so expensive if you buy right-managed. I also agree with Marcopolo that the sales-volume of the traditional agencies is generally overestimated by Microstock-contributors.

CofkoCof

« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2008, 16:19 »
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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2008, 17:20 »
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It should also be kept in mind that a recession or even depression in the US may not have a deeply negative effect worldwide. Germany for example is a large market for microstock and the German economy need not suffer just because the US is hurting. The euro could benefit from an ever-weakening dollar.

So far from true it's not funny. The US dollar went up today! The fact is that the world bought 10x the junk mortgage backed securities than are on the books in the US. 2 large banks in Europe failed just yesterday.

The truism that when the US sneezes the rest of the world catches a cold is just as true today as it was in the past. Germany is actually worst off than a lot of european countries because of their huge dependency on exports.

Just look at the Fortis firm this past weekend that was bailed out.
Bradford & Bingley in England.
Hypo Real Estate in Germany.

If you live in Europe and don't think it's effecting you, then just wait a few months. It's coming.

« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2008, 18:25 »
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It's growing worse and worse everyday:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/09/29/us.congress.bailout.deal/index.html


Maybe soon the topic needs to be changed to "What is a rotten economy doing...." instead of "What will...."


« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2008, 18:39 »
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Subscription sales might increase, as buyers want more bang for their buck.

« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2008, 19:20 »
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I was thinking this may be in part why subscription sales are becoming more popular. A slowdown in sales causes the agencies to cut each others throats looking for more sales, and the buyers want the best bargain possible.

« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2008, 19:24 »
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It's growing worse and worse everyday:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/BUSINESS/09/29/us.congress.bailout.deal/index.html


Maybe soon the topic needs to be changed to "What is a rotten economy doing...." instead of "What will...."

But how much worse will it get before it gets better? During the Great Depression 1929 wasn't the worst year of it, in fact I think in 1929 they were barely in recession, but the damage had been done and they were overlooking an abyss they were about to fall into.

« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2008, 19:37 »
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Well, my stock income will be up 15% this month on record sales which is something I've never seen in at least 2 years when my port was smaller. So keep em coming!

And my stock (market) portfolio is down another 12% just today.  Am I worried? nah. So what if we're in a depression for a few years. I know how to make a garden and my neighbor has lots of pigs and I just happen to like bacon and ham. ;) So I'm all set.

« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2008, 20:09 »
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Just wondering why my sales today are worse than ever.  Was wondering if there is a U.S. holiday today (Monday), but maybe it has something to do with the markets?

« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2008, 23:10 »
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I'm starting to worry about the credit markets, and how it might affect buyers who rely on credit to purchase credit/subscription packages instead of paying cash up front. 

If banks start lowering credit limits for buyers, and they start losing their ability to purchase photos, we will be hit by a decrease in sales.

« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2008, 05:41 »
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I dont know but $US is rising and I'm getting AU$1.21 for each US $ so I have gained over 20% pay increase in last 6 or weeks for every site :):):)

« Reply #24 on: September 30, 2008, 07:16 »
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I dont know but $US is rising and I'm getting AU$1.21 for each US $ so I have gained over 20% pay increase in last 6 or weeks for every site :):):)

Yep same here, except that because I'm traveling through countries that the A$ has fallen against I effectively loose the equivalent in that exchange rate calculation. I'm at the stage though where microstock is meeting all my travel expenses though so the A/US$ exchange rate kind of equals itself out. What's more important for me at the moment is how the US/A$ go against the Asian currencies.


 

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