Personally I think that the new referral system is a disaster. Complicated, probably voluntary to avoid paying people. Not reliable and financially not interesting. Doing all this work for 20$ doesn't interest me (especially knowing that there is no guarantee that system works).
Before September 2010 I sent many buyers, without using the ridiculous 10$ referral system, simply because I liked IS. Now our relationship is strictly financial so if I can earn one more dollar by sending buyers to another site I'll do it. I'm still exclusive but I don't think there is no future for IS and throwing the crown is only question of time.
I'm curious if you continue to put IS links on yours websites. Do you use IS referral system?
I voted last option.

As Independent and beginner , with or without referrals, I want buyers to any agency. Perhaps one day I can afford to buy a war with a specific agency... not now.

Never - and never have done and never will.
I always suggest Shutterstock or Dreamstime. If a customer or client asks about IS I simply email them a link to the forums where members are legitimately raising concerns and are getting berated and locked out of discussions. Always seems to do the trick. They never usually mention IS again.
Most of them do speak highly of SS quality and easy to navigate website when they are referred there which is good.

No way. For an independent it doesn't make any sense whatsover - it is UNSUSTAINABLE.
They should raise my commissions significantly and I will reconsider.

....and that's why IStock's traffic is plummeting so fast.
I hope eventually, when IStock has gone from No.1 to second tier, the other sites sit up and pay attention.
None of them are too big to be brought down by their contributors, who made them.

Some truth in that. Im not sure about your contributor theory but one thing is for sure, nobody is too big or important for anybody.

We used to use Istock a lot, especially for their interior home shots.  But now we use SS as primary and DT secondarily.

Like most other independents, I no longer send people to Istock, and as of Sept. 2010 began to actively encourage the designers I know to shop elsewhere.  For my own images, I send them to my site, and for other images I recommend DT first, and SS second.

Nope.  I only refer folks to places willing to share a fair slice of the pie with their contributing partners.  IS isn't on that list.

It seems that iStock don't actually want people to refer buyers to them - certainly not if it means they have to pay a $20 referral fee (so why make a song and dance about the new referral scheme?)
http://www.istockphoto.com/forum_messages.php?threadid=336131&page=17#post6527371

the forum moderators at istock are especially snarky.  been thinking of starting with shutterstock or one of the others because istock is just so unpleasant, you really don't want to ask a question about anything.   they also have a lot of cheer leaders inside the forums bragging about their great sales & how much they're making etc.  I find it amazing how they take & process all those pix yet still want to spend time writing forum comments!

The only forum at IS, worth something is the photography-forum,  the rest is just depressing, really depressing!  and you can tell people are afraid to even touch sensitive subjects, watching their words really carefully before posting.
This is just the beginning, wait untill after the migration,  be like the cold-war.