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Author Topic: Getty profits decline on poor istock performance  (Read 24567 times)

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« Reply #25 on: February 26, 2015, 15:49 »
+8
I think this situation looks bad for Getty.  The bond market is suggesting insolvency, possibly bankruptcy in the years ahead.  The 7% bonds trade at 63c giving an interest yield of 11.3%.  That's junk status and implies 'very high risk of losing your money'.

It's okay at the moment.  But crunch the numbers.  There's $2.6 billion of debt, all of which needs refinancing during the next five years.  If all of that has to be refinanced at junk levels of 11.3%, that would produce an annual interest payments liability of $293 million.  Getty's 4th quarter EBITDA was $67 million.  That annualises at $268 million.  Potential debt liability is greater than annualised EBITDA.  And remember what KK said - 50% of sales are made in the last quarter of the year, so that annualised revenue figure might be optimistic.

They have to sell some assets to reduce debt at some point in the next couple of years.  OR, they will have to renegotiate current debt.  OR default.  If they cannot renegotiate they might opt for Chapter 11 to protect themselves from creditors while they restructure the business.

None of this will happen now, but the bond market is pricing in the likelihood of it happening in the years ahead.  It seems to me that the bonds are massively overpriced even at 63c.

As suppliers we can only hope that they manage to reduce the debt and get the business back onto a growth track.  I suspect that in order to achieve that, the current owners will ask the CEO to fall on his sword, and they'll bring in a turnaround or restructuring specialist.


« Reply #26 on: February 26, 2015, 16:09 »
-1
They have to sell some assets to reduce debt at some point in the next couple of years.

Jim Pickerell says that there is a rumour that they may sell editorial.

« Reply #27 on: February 26, 2015, 16:16 »
+3
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-26/getty-images-outlook-blurs-as-photo-rivalry-triggers-price-war

Another story about Getty's difficulties. This glosses over how much of this has been an own goal on Getty's part, IMO. Certainly Shutterstock deserves some credit (and no one would even be mentioning Fotolia if Adobe hadn't purchased them), but they have benefitted hugely from Getty's eff-ups and crappy treatment of contributors across their various segments.


It's interesting that they are claiming only 8 million exclusive images. As SS has 40 million it would work out at only equivalent to one extra for every 5 at SS - but, of course, the crazy uploading system and low returns must mean that SS is getting content that people no longer bother to send to IS, so it will have its own quasi-exclusive stuff. Overall, iStock seems to be claiming 20.6 million images (I assume that's what the bizarre landing page reference to "LifesizeImages" means), so SS is double its size.

« Reply #28 on: February 26, 2015, 17:20 »
0
as i see it, the entire creative world is going to crumble due to the Internet and Digital and Globalization.
it will take 10-15 more years to create a new balance and a "new order" but the golden days will never ever come back.
You mean US and UK creative world, not the entire creative world? Because, for some of us the golden days have just started, thanks to globalization.
Thinking your golden days have just started in this business, is... kind of naive.   It's like those people reporting a 100% growing just because they sold two more images than the previous month  :-\
Or are you telling us that you have recently started to make thousands of dollars a month?

Dook

« Reply #29 on: February 26, 2015, 18:23 »
0
The latter.

« Reply #30 on: February 26, 2015, 18:55 »
0
I think the bonds look overpriced considering the debt to equity level.  I don't know how the Carlyle group will make a profit from their expensive purchase at 3.3B in 2012.

The company isn't going away as there are always bottom feeders that could shop the company for 2B or less and continue on.  The situation doesn't look good for contributors long term as a company in dire straights will cut even more to stay afloat.    Who will be the new owners? I don't think a spin off IPO will work in this market.

w7lwi

  • Those that don't stand up to evil enable evil.
« Reply #31 on: February 26, 2015, 19:28 »
+3
If Getty declared chapter 11 and contributors lost their royalties, how many would pull their portfolios, assuming they could?  That would leave Getty with only their wholly owned collections.  Hardly enough to interest potential buyers, except to buy off individual collections piecemeal, or realize sustainable sales levels.  What would happen to iStock is problematic.  It's possible they could be sold off as a standalone agency, but given their present situation that could also be an issue.  Would contributors also start to bail from them as well?

Any way you slice it, it's not a healthy situation.

ShadySue

  • There is a crack in everything
« Reply #32 on: February 26, 2015, 19:52 »
0
If Getty declared chapter 11
For those who haven't a clue what that means, according to Wikipedia:
"Chapter 11 is a chapter of Title 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, which permits reorganization under the bankruptcy laws of the United States. Chapter 11 bankruptcy is available to every business, whether organized as a corporation, partnership or sole proprietorship, and to individuals, although it is most prominently used by corporate entities.
In contrast, Chapter 7 governs the process of a liquidation bankruptcy (although liquidation can go under this chapter), while Chapter 13 provides a reorganization process for the majority of private individuals."

Hobostocker

    This user is banned.
« Reply #33 on: February 27, 2015, 01:24 »
-1
relax guys, in the worst case scenario they will split the company or sell iStock and Getty Reportage.

« Reply #34 on: February 27, 2015, 01:47 »
+7
Here's a longer write-up on Getty's situation. 

http://photobusinessforum.blogspot.no/2015/02/getty-images-downward-spiral-approaches.html

Conclusion - it doesn't look good (for Getty)

« Reply #35 on: February 27, 2015, 05:18 »
+6
I wonder if Yuri is reading his get out clause  :)

ShadySue

  • There is a crack in everything
« Reply #36 on: February 27, 2015, 05:25 »
+5
I wonder if Yuri is reading his get out clause  :)
Filed with Messrs Stuffem & Runn

Hobostocker

    This user is banned.
« Reply #37 on: February 27, 2015, 05:54 »
+1
Hobostocker, all good points here, I agree. 
I just wanted to share with all of you here that I'm happy because I'm doing well in microstock world. I know that it won't last forever and I know that for many photographers this microstock thing is just not working. I helped many fellow photographers get into this business and most of them have already given up.
If you ever decide to move to Serbia drop me a PM, I would be happy to show you around and help you.

i stayed in Beograd a few weeks in 2004 everything was great and it was still not much touristic, i also made very nice photos in downtown but i also explored the suburbs including a few rough areas where they filmed some movied by Dragojevic (at the time i was a bit of a movie freak) hahaha no big deal just keep a low profile ... i remember also people swimming in the Sava there was a beach on an island ... it's crazy thinking at the time there were just 2-3 guesthouses in downtown and now there are dozens, things changed quickly ! i will certainly PM if i stop in Beograd ! :)

as for living costs : well, what's * the living costs across Europe is the sky-high rental prices in the major cities but apart that i can say the cost of food is now on par with east asia and south east asia in many ways, electronics is almost on par, clothes are cheaper in asia unless you want quality stuff, gas/petrol is cheaper here but not by a big margin apart in Indonesia (half dollar for a litre !) so all in all we'll see but i'm getting tired of the asian "format" as ultimately now that the Euro is in free fall i'm getting less bang for my bucks that i would in eastern europe and maybe also south america.

i don't think eatern europe is going to suffer from another boom/bust economic cycle, i'm looking at the prices in Czech republic for instance and they're still affordable no matter if they're bordering Germany and Austria.

other options : Greece ? Portugal ?

Dook

« Reply #38 on: February 27, 2015, 06:14 »
+1
Dragojevic is still filming, I like his movies  :D. Serbia is still cheaper for living than Czech Republic, Slovakia, Croatia, but not much. Greece, Portugal, Spain are wonderful if you like living on seaside.

Hobostocker

    This user is banned.
« Reply #39 on: February 27, 2015, 06:27 »
0
Here's a longer write-up on Getty's situation. 

http://photobusinessforum.blogspot.no/2015/02/getty-images-downward-spiral-approaches.html

Conclusion - it doesn't look good (for Getty)


interesting.
his theory is that Getty scre-wed photographers so much (especially News photogs) that if Getty disappears the newspapers and wire services will be forced to pay higher fees for both stock and assignments.

well this COULD happen but where the money is coming from considering the publishing/news industry is under fire and struggling to survive ?

while there's still a lot of money in TV i don't see the same scenario on printed magazines apart those specialized in gossip and celebrities.

by the way, for news photographers it won't be a big deal as they're already making a pittance with Getty & friends, until you make the frontpage of the NYT you can barely pay your bills with that job and i know guys scrapping the bottom even if they live in cheap places like cambodia or indonesia, i'm not talking about London or NYC where you need 500$ a WEEK to rent a sh-it room.


« Reply #40 on: February 27, 2015, 06:46 »
+8
That is a good article leaf, thank you for sharing.

I am still surprised that nobody on wallstreet saw through the getty smoke screen for so many years, it was such an obviously badly run place by people who have no clue how to grow a business themselves organically. Which is why they kept trying to buy places run by people more clever than they were, but unfortunatly then brought them down to their own level instead of learning from them. They even had to be taken off the stock market years ago, inspite of all the amazing opportunities the internet gave them.

Contributors have been accurately predicting what will happen for years now, which made fotolia and SS stronger because we didnt wait until the getty house burned down. We just follow the money and work in a logical way.


This Titanic is crashing into an iceberg that has been painted red and yellow,has strong signal lights blinking madly and signal horns in all directions. And they have been moving straight ahead into it, right into the biggest source of pain they can find.

The only thing left to wonder about for 2015: what kind of mad, suicidal "exciting" new business plan and abrupt changes do they have coming this year,preferably in September, the main buying season? What kind of new dramatic drama are they planning to throw on their poor customers and contributors??

They love the drama and they love the pain. I guess somewhere, someone is making money will the ship burns.

My sympathies for the employees and hard working artists that are still tied to them. Going indie is really not easy, but at least you will have peace of mind and you will see growth again if you work hard.

« Reply #41 on: February 27, 2015, 07:05 »
+9
It's quite amusing to go back less than 18 months and see Bunhill and Tickstock telling me that the evidence I cited of falling iStock sales was completely meaningless and I was reaching absurd conclusions:
http://www.microstockgroup.com/istockphoto-com/the-%27new%27-is/msg351483/#msg351483

« Reply #42 on: February 27, 2015, 07:09 »
+5
The downside for iStock contributors is that we now get paid on a monthly basis instead of the option to cash out weekly. This means when Getty files for bankruptcy protection, and perhaps can't pay out to its contributors anymore, that we stand to lose a month's income rather than only a week's income. But most likely the one thing they would do in a Chapter 11 filing would be to continue to pay their contributors at least. If they can't at least do that then all contributors would pull their images and the doors would be closed completely. So most likely that won't happen. Or if they get bought out and taken over by another investment group then that group would most likely pick up paying off the contributors. The most dangerous thing that could happen would be for them to lose their only tangible assets, which are our photos. So perhaps we are not at such risk of not being paid. Time will tell I guess. If one month your PayPal account stops going Ka-Ching, then you know it's time to fasten your seat belts cause Kansas is going bye-bye.

« Reply #43 on: February 27, 2015, 07:23 »
+7
This is what I was looking for:

http://www.microstockgroup.com/istockphoto-com/hf-presses-on-with-$4-billion-getty-images-sale/msg267660/#msg267660

Quote from: BaldricksTrousers on August 15, 2012, 08:03

    It's incredible the way they pile more and more debt onto it and proclaim it's worth more and more. It reminds me of the famous Dutch tulip price bubble.

Reply from Gostwyck:

I don't get it either. It's not even as if the business is growing in any significant way. The markets into which Getty sells are getting more competitive and/or are in decline in the case of newspapers and magazines. Since H&F bought Getty they appear to have added little value, stripped it of cash and piled it with debt. I guess you have to admire them for having pulled the sale off.

And, also from me:  didn't Getty pay HF before it had the first lot of debt piled onto it? With this new deal it has to repay the original debt, the new debt and then produce an additional billion for Carlyle to get their cash back. Is it then going to get passed on to someone else for $5b with $4b of that coming from bank loans, while Carlyle gloat over their profits? Is it some sort of create-money-from-debt perpetual motion machine?

I suppose if it becomes impossible to repay, the debt will be split up into tiny sums bundled into a "sub prime" package and sold on at twice its value to unsuspecting private punters, leaving the investment funds and bankers laughing. Or am I being too cynical?
Modify message
Last Edit: August 15, 2012, 09:06 by BaldricksTrousers


The question is, if a couple of ordinary guys could see where this was going two and a half years ago, how could Carlyle with all their fancy experts and access to the books fail to notice it?


« Reply #44 on: February 27, 2015, 08:02 »
+1


The question is, if a couple of ordinary guys could see where this was going two and a half years ago, how could Carlyle with all their fancy experts and access to the books fail to notice it?

They were probably just assessing if the story is believable enough for the average naive investor. If SS and Fotolia werent this successful, nobody would notice.

Or Jonathan Klein is one hell of a salesman who can turn fog into gold and diamonds and they fell for it. A sale between buddies and all that...

H2O

    This user is banned.
« Reply #45 on: February 27, 2015, 09:08 »
+4
If Getty go into bankruptcy the game is over for iStock all the contributors and buyers would leave, but on the upside the other Agencies would be the winners.

« Reply #46 on: February 27, 2015, 09:11 »
-4
It's quite amusing to go back less than 18 months and see Bunhill and Tickstock telling me that the evidence I cited of falling iStock sales was completely meaningless and I was reaching absurd conclusions:
http://www.microstockgroup.com/istockphoto-com/the-%27new%27-is/msg351483/#msg351483


Where have I said that you were reaching "absurd conclusions" ? If I have said that then I apologise unconditionally - not for being wrong, but for being rude. I am happy to be wrong in a guessing game but I am not here to be rude or impolite to people. The point I think I was making was that the data is incomplete. I still believe that the data was and is incomplete - and without context.

I am very curious about the motivations of the anonymous sources behind all of this reporting. I am struggling to understand why anyone on the inside of those meetings would be motivated to blab. The motivation for the leaking must surely be part of the story. Who benefits ?
« Last Edit: February 27, 2015, 09:13 by bunhill »

« Reply #47 on: February 27, 2015, 10:07 »
+9
I don't think that story relied on inside information - the numbers are all out there, they just collated them and spun them into a story.  And the result was very obvious and easily predicted in many threads here.  I liked this quote, "There is a strong distaste amongst contributors about the constant decline in the contributors share of licensing revenues, so a short-term shift further of even worse percentages would create a long term problem from which Getty would never recover."  It looks to me like they are probably already in a situation from which they will never recover.  If expenses are greater than income and they can't borrow more then bankruptcy will be the only option.  The only questions are when and whether it will be Chapter 11 or Chapter 7.  My guess is the latter, unfortunately.

It looks like iS may have almost done Sean L a favor when they booted him off - gave him time to diversify before the crash.  I wonder what Mr. Arcurs thinks now about dealing with professionals?  (although I'm sure he will land on his feet regardless)

« Reply #48 on: February 27, 2015, 10:09 »
+3

« Reply #49 on: February 27, 2015, 10:33 »
0

Where have I said that you were reaching "absurd conclusions" ?

You didn't, not as such, but I felt it was the general tenor of the discussion.


 

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