Author Topic: this month's stats --- better than expected (Read 5484 times)

The Mighty Jungle · « **on:** August 20, 2021, 14:24 »

Last month was below expected; this month above... Go figure.

For Real · « **Reply #1 on:** August 20, 2021, 15:51 »

even with a lot of .01 and .02 sales I still doubled my month compared to last year's July thus happy...

Mantis · « **Reply #2 on:** August 20, 2021, 16:52 »

From $400 last period to $280 this period. Fluctuates a lot from month to month.

cascoly · « **Reply #3 on:** August 20, 2021, 21:48 »

Quote from: Mantis on August 20, 2021, 16:52

From $400 last period to $280 this period. Fluctuates a lot from month to month.

right that's why it's silly to extrapolate from 12 or2 months for most of us - it's a Poisson distribution and a running average (3-6 mo_) is a better indicator. individual months typically graph as a sawtooth range, not a smooth curve

with a small portfolio, the effects are magnified

Dumc · « **Reply #4 on:** August 21, 2021, 00:19 »

Last month BME, this month one of the worst months, probably top 3 of the worst months.

tätarätä · « **Reply #5 on:** August 21, 2021, 07:46 »

ShadySue · « **Reply #6 on:** August 21, 2021, 07:49 »

Last month my worst month since July 07.
This month much better, but not in any other sense 'good'.

Mantis · « **Reply #7 on:** August 21, 2021, 07:58 »

Quote from: cascoly on August 20, 2021, 21:48

Quote from: Mantis on August 20, 2021, 16:52
From $400 last period to $280 this period. Fluctuates a lot from month to month.

right that's why it's silly to extrapolate from 12 or2 months for most of us - it's a Poisson distribution and a running average (3-6 mo_) is a better indicator. individual months typically graph as a sawtooth range, not a smooth curve

with a small portfolio, the effects are magnified

Indeed. It's sawtooth (poisson) all the time. There is, for me, typically a $50 to $150 delta from month to month. Looking at CY 2020, sales were lower but to your point:

Average: $242
Median: $238
Range: $170-$329 (Here's my $150 delta)

For Real · « **Reply #8 on:** August 21, 2021, 09:08 »

Quote from: Mantis on August 21, 2021, 07:58

Quote from: cascoly on August 20, 2021, 21:48
Quote from: Mantis on August 20, 2021, 16:52
From $400 last period to $280 this period. Fluctuates a lot from month to month.

right that's why it's silly to extrapolate from 12 or2 months for most of us - it's a Poisson distribution and a running average (3-6 mo_) is a better indicator. individual months typically graph as a sawtooth range, not a smooth curve

with a small portfolio, the effects are magnified
Indeed. It's sawtooth (poisson) all the time. There is, for me, typically a $50 to $150 delta from month to month. Looking at CY 2020, sales were lower but to your point:

Average: $242
Median: $238
Range: $170-$329 (Here's my $150 delta)

Good info thanks!

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Author Topic: this month's stats --- better than expected (Read 5484 times)

The Mighty Jungle

For Real

Mantis

cascoly

Dumc

tätarätä

ShadySue

Mantis

For Real

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