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Author Topic: this month's stats --- better than expected  (Read 2596 times)

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« on: August 20, 2021, 14:24 »
0
Last month was below expected; this month above... Go figure.


« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2021, 15:51 »
0
even with a lot of .01 and .02 sales I still doubled my month compared to last year's July thus happy...

« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2021, 16:52 »
0
From $400 last period to $280 this period. Fluctuates a lot from month to month.

« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2021, 21:48 »
+1
From $400 last period to $280 this period. Fluctuates a lot from month to month.

right that's why it's silly to extrapolate from 12 or2 months for most of us - it's a Poisson distribution and a running average (3-6 mo_) is a better indicator. individual months typically graph as a sawtooth range, not a smooth curve

with a small portfolio, the effects are magnified

« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2021, 00:19 »
0
Last month BME, this month one of the worst months, probably top 3 of the worst months.

« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2021, 07:46 »
0
WME

ShadySue

  • There is a crack in everything
« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2021, 07:49 »
0
Last month my worst month since July 07.
This month much better, but not in any other sense 'good'.
 ::)

« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2021, 07:58 »
+2
From $400 last period to $280 this period. Fluctuates a lot from month to month.

right that's why it's silly to extrapolate from 12 or2 months for most of us - it's a Poisson distribution and a running average (3-6 mo_) is a better indicator. individual months typically graph as a sawtooth range, not a smooth curve

with a small portfolio, the effects are magnified
Indeed. It's sawtooth (poisson) all the time.  There is, for me, typically a $50 to $150 delta from month to month. Looking at CY 2020, sales were lower but to your point:

Average: $242
Median: $238
Range: $170-$329 (Here's my $150 delta)

« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2021, 09:08 »
0
From $400 last period to $280 this period. Fluctuates a lot from month to month.

right that's why it's silly to extrapolate from 12 or2 months for most of us - it's a Poisson distribution and a running average (3-6 mo_) is a better indicator. individual months typically graph as a sawtooth range, not a smooth curve

with a small portfolio, the effects are magnified
Indeed. It's sawtooth (poisson) all the time.  There is, for me, typically a $50 to $150 delta from month to month. Looking at CY 2020, sales were lower but to your point:

Average: $242
Median: $238
Range: $170-$329 (Here's my $150 delta)

Good info thanks!


 

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