Author Topic: The Sky is Falling! (Read 6906 times)

Uncle Pete · « **on:** November 07, 2013, 20:30 »

Oh alright, just a small man made piece of it. Predicted in the next couple of days. But they say "don't worry"

"While most of the satellite will disintegrate in the atmosphere, Some smaller parts are expected to reach Earth’s surface. When and where these parts might land cannot yet be predicted, but the affected area will be narrowed down closer to the time of reentry. "

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/GOCE/GOCE_completes_its_mission

And more: A One-ton satellite is falling toward Earth's surface. Experts estimate that the European satellite will break into 25 to 45 pieces that will crash to Earth Sunday or Monday, Nov. 10-11.

For those without a calculator handy that's roughly 35 pieces that will weight 65 pounds each. They say - Don't Worry. Sure a ton of little parts are breaking up and falling from the sky and we're told. "Don't Worry"?

Then when they get the ocean data, we'll be told about doom and gloom and climate and then we should worry?

Fine, a car is coming at you with no brakes and you can't see it. Don't worry. The planet might warm up or cool down (hey folks it's called weather) when your Great Great Grand-children's, children, are 80 years old, we don't know yet, maybe we should be worried?

Mu answer for the next couple days. If you hear whistling sounds in the air on Sunday or Monday, duck and cover.

ruxpriencdiam · « **Reply #1 on:** November 07, 2013, 22:50 »

Oh come on now!☺

PeterChigmaroff · « **Reply #2 on:** November 07, 2013, 23:44 »

You stand a better chance of getting rich selling stock photos than getting hit by satellite debris.

Beppe Grillo · « **Reply #3 on:** November 08, 2013, 01:25 »

Quote from: Uncle Pete on November 07, 2013, 20:30

Mu answer for the next couple days. If you hear whistling sounds in the air on Sunday or Monday, duck and cover.

Hmm, they say that we never listen the one falling on our head…

ACS · « **Reply #4 on:** November 08, 2013, 04:02 »

I remember the day Skylab came down to the Earth.

The lucky place was Western Australia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Skylabfragment.JPG

ruxpriencdiam · « **Reply #5 on:** November 08, 2013, 07:44 »

And the real question is!

If this stuff is floating around in space where there is no gravity how does it fall into the earths atmosphere and to the ground?

Why doesn't it just float away?

Something that makes you think!

Ron · « **Reply #6 on:** November 08, 2013, 07:54 »

Its not floating, it has movement. There is no resistance in space, so any push it gets, will be eternal. And at some point it enter the earths gravity and then gets pulled down and falls to the earth. Its not rocket science... ow wait.

BaldricksTrousers · « **Reply #7 on:** November 08, 2013, 08:10 »

It's already in the grip of the Earth's gravitational field, that's why it's been orbiting following a circular course, instead of heading off in one direction. Orbiting bodies lose energy and so get pulled in closer and closer to the object they are orbiting, once a satellite starts to encounter drag from whisps of atmosphere its orbit will decay more rapidly, putting it deeper inside the atmosphere and slowing it still more, causing it to tumble out of orbit.

Ron · « **Reply #8 on:** November 08, 2013, 08:40 »

^^ Thats what I wanted to say, but you said it a million times better.

Copidosoma · « **Reply #9 on:** November 08, 2013, 09:49 »

Quote from: ruxpriencdiam on November 08, 2013, 07:44

And the real question is!

If this stuff is floating around in space where there is no gravity how does it fall into the earths atmosphere and to the ground?

Why doesn't it just float away?

Something that makes you think!

Ummm, Barry, there is pretty much gravity everywhere. How the heck do you think planets orbit stars?

Uncle Pete · « **Reply #10 on:** November 09, 2013, 18:33 »

Quote from: ruxpriencdiam on November 07, 2013, 22:50

Oh come on now!☺

Yes at least some people understand humor. Thanks!

I believe there's some math about winning the lottery is the same as being struck by lighting while you are being eaten by a shark... at the same time. LOL

ruxpriencdiam · « **Reply #11 on:** November 10, 2013, 08:51 »

They just put up some info.

Anything under 200 miles high will eventually fall back into the earths atmosphere and anything above that will just drift away.

They said it will be some 200lb piece that will make it into the atmosphere and the odds of being hit are like 1 in 3000.

Supposed to be tonight / tomorrow morning when someone may see it.

But now I have forgotten how many thousands of satellites they say are orbiting the earth?

pancaketom · « **Reply #12 on:** November 10, 2013, 14:10 »

No way the individual odds of being hit are 1 in 3000, with a population of 7B that would mean some 2 million people getting hit. Maybe those are the odds for someone getting hit.

Anyway, I have better things to worry about, like will this be my second 0 download day at SS in the last 3 or 4 years.

Uncle Pete · « **Reply #13 on:** November 10, 2013, 23:16 »

OK since I started the joke, I'm responsible for keeing it clean.

So what's the chance that you, reader, will be struck by some piece of former space flotsam in your lifetime?

According to Mark Matney, a scientist in the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston, the odds that any of the 7 billion people on Earth will be struck by a piece of the soon-to-fall satellite is 1 in 3,200. "The odds that you will be hit … are 1 in several trillion," Matney said. "So, quite low for any particular person."

That was for the research satellite that weighed tons.

Here's the bottom line answer:

In the course of a 75-year lifetime... the odds of getting injured by space junk would be a little less than one in 1 billion.

My answer would be one in a billion in ones lifetime. (winning the lottery, in your lifetime, is easier it's only in the millions)

I really don't expect to have either happen personally.

BaldricksTrousers · « **Reply #14 on:** November 11, 2013, 04:04 »

You're still a bit off there, I think. If the odds are one in a billion in a lifetime, then seven people will be hit by space junk over a 70 year span, which is one every 10 years. So far, the tally is zero and even though the chances of a hit are growing with the growing populations of people and of space junk, I think you are being overly pessimistic.

Imagenomad · « **Reply #15 on:** November 13, 2013, 06:52 »

Quote from: BaldricksTrousers on November 11, 2013, 04:04

So far, the tally is zero...

As far as we know.

*does the Twilight Zone theme tune*

Uncle Pete · « **Reply #16 on:** November 17, 2013, 19:48 »

Those are not MY numbers, they are from the space agency. The idea was to explain that much lower number which was being misunderstood.

I'll give you their address and location and you can continue with the source. LOL

NASA Johnson Space Center

Here's a nice page about it.

http://www.space.com/13034-falling-satellite-space-debris-injury-risk-uars.html

The ods that someone might get hit, 1 in 3200, "The odds that you will be hit … are 1 in several trillion,"

Quote from: BaldricksTrousers on November 11, 2013, 04:04

You're still a bit off there, I think. If the odds are one in a billion in a lifetime, then seven people will be hit by space junk over a 70 year span, which is one every 10 years. So far, the tally is zero and even though the chances of a hit are growing with the growing populations of people and of space junk, I think you are being overly pessimistic.

BaldricksTrousers · « **Reply #17 on:** November 18, 2013, 02:04 »

Pete, I think you've misunderstood what the ESA said (though their paragraph is badly worded and rather obscure, so I'm not entirely certain). What I take it to mean is that the chance of anybody anywhere being hit over the course of 75 years is bit more than 1 in a billion.

The paragraph concerned states: "The European Space Agency, on the other hand, feels more comfortable pinning down the odds: "The annual risk of a single person to be severely injured by a re-entering piece of space debris is about 1 in 100,000,000,000" — one in 100 billion, said Heiner Klinkrad, head of the ESA's Orbital Debris Office. In the course of a 75-year lifetime, then, the odds of getting injured by space junk would be a little less than one in 1 billion."

Look at what NASA said: that the chance of this bit of junk hitting anybody on earth was 1 in 3,200. To bring that down to one person being hit every 10 years you would have to have 3,200 similar-sized objects falling in a 10 year period, or about one per day. That clearly isn't the case.

So I still think suggesting a one in a billion chance of being hit is being extremely alarmist!

Quote from: Uncle Pete on November 17, 2013, 19:48

Those are not MY numbers, they are from the space agency. The idea was to explain that much lower number which was being misunderstood.

I'll give you their address and location and you can continue with the source. LOL NASA Johnson Space Center

Here's a nice page about it.

http://www.space.com/13034-falling-satellite-space-debris-injury-risk-uars.html

The ods that someone might get hit, 1 in 3200, "The odds that you will be hit … are 1 in several trillion,"

Quote from: BaldricksTrousers on November 11, 2013, 04:04
You're still a bit off there, I think. If the odds are one in a billion in a lifetime, then seven people will be hit by space junk over a 70 year span, which is one every 10 years. So far, the tally is zero and even though the chances of a hit are growing with the growing populations of people and of space junk, I think you are being overly pessimistic.

Uncle Pete · « **Reply #18 on:** November 18, 2013, 15:35 »

Yes, I assumed we agree and it's just some quibbling over 1 trillion or 1 billion and in the next 75 years.

Keep in mind this is off topic and if there was an off topic, it's inane humor, that would have made it better placed.

I'm not worried about Yellowstone blowing up, California falling into the ocean, the Mayan calendar predictions, Y2K apocalypse, being hit by space junk, or abducted by aliens. (and many more) I do buy a small lottery ticket, even thought the math says, "Ain't Going to happen Bud!" Hmm, and wasn't there something about that way at the top?

Billion or Trillion, it could happen, but we don't need tinfoil hats and space debris shields, to help protect us.

"...the latest numbers have found more than 20,000 objects larger than ten centimetres (four inches) being tracked, and an estimated 500,000 objects larger than one centimetre (0.4 inches), not to mention over 100 million objects smaller than one centimetre (0.4 inches)." - See more at: http://www.spaceanswers.com/solar-system/3467/how-much-junk-is-there-in-space/#sthash.85b6AxmH.dpuf

ps didn't this topic fall, last weekend. I didn't see anything.

Quote from: BaldricksTrousers on November 18, 2013, 02:04

Pete, I think you've misunderstood what the ESA said (though their paragraph is badly worded and rather obscure, so I'm not entirely certain). What I take it to mean is that the chance of anybody anywhere being hit over the course of 75 years is bit more than 1 in a billion.

The paragraph concerned states: "The European Space Agency, on the other hand, feels more comfortable pinning down the odds: "The annual risk of a single person to be severely injured by a re-entering piece of space debris is about 1 in 100,000,000,000" — one in 100 billion, said Heiner Klinkrad, head of the ESA's Orbital Debris Office. In the course of a 75-year lifetime, then, the odds of getting injured by space junk would be a little less than one in 1 billion."

Look at what NASA said: that the chance of this bit of junk hitting anybody on earth was 1 in 3,200. To bring that down to one person being hit every 10 years you would have to have 3,200 similar-sized objects falling in a 10 year period, or about one per day. That clearly isn't the case.

So I still think suggesting a one in a billion chance of being hit is being extremely alarmist!

Quote from: Uncle Pete on November 17, 2013, 19:48
Those are not MY numbers, they are from the space agency. The idea was to explain that much lower number which was being misunderstood.

I'll give you their address and location and you can continue with the source. LOL NASA Johnson Space Center

Here's a nice page about it.

http://www.space.com/13034-falling-satellite-space-debris-injury-risk-uars.html

The ods that someone might get hit, 1 in 3200, "The odds that you will be hit … are 1 in several trillion,"

Quote from: BaldricksTrousers on November 11, 2013, 04:04
You're still a bit off there, I think. If the odds are one in a billion in a lifetime, then seven people will be hit by space junk over a 70 year span, which is one every 10 years. So far, the tally is zero and even though the chances of a hit are growing with the growing populations of people and of space junk, I think you are being overly pessimistic.

ruxpriencdiam · « **Reply #19 on:** November 18, 2013, 22:41 »

no it aint so!

You mean no ocean front property in Arizona?

No aliens in area 51?

Ancient Aliens, Nostradamus?

Global warming?

But you buy a lottery ticket?

Hows bout a better chance at winning in the NFL challenge perhaps?

Quote from: Uncle Pete on November 18, 2013, 15:35

Yes, I assumed we agree and it's just some quibbling over 1 trillion or 1 billion and in the next 75 years.

Keep in mind this is off topic and if there was an off topic, it's inane humor, that would have made it better placed.

I'm not worried about Yellowstone blowing up, California falling into the ocean, the Mayan calendar predictions, Y2K apocalypse, being hit by space junk, or abducted by aliens. (and many more) I do buy a small lottery ticket, even thought the math says, "Ain't Going to happen Bud!" Hmm, and wasn't there something about that way at the top?

Billion or Trillion, it could happen, but we don't need tinfoil hats and space debris shields, to help protect us.

"...the latest numbers have found more than 20,000 objects larger than ten centimetres (four inches) being tracked, and an estimated 500,000 objects larger than one centimetre (0.4 inches), not to mention over 100 million objects smaller than one centimetre (0.4 inches)." - See more at: http://www.spaceanswers.com/solar-system/3467/how-much-junk-is-there-in-space/#sthash.85b6AxmH.dpuf

ps didn't this topic fall, last weekend. I didn't see anything.

Quote from: BaldricksTrousers on November 18, 2013, 02:04
Pete, I think you've misunderstood what the ESA said (though their paragraph is badly worded and rather obscure, so I'm not entirely certain). What I take it to mean is that the chance of anybody anywhere being hit over the course of 75 years is bit more than 1 in a billion.

The paragraph concerned states: "The European Space Agency, on the other hand, feels more comfortable pinning down the odds: "The annual risk of a single person to be severely injured by a re-entering piece of space debris is about 1 in 100,000,000,000" — one in 100 billion, said Heiner Klinkrad, head of the ESA's Orbital Debris Office. In the course of a 75-year lifetime, then, the odds of getting injured by space junk would be a little less than one in 1 billion."

Look at what NASA said: that the chance of this bit of junk hitting anybody on earth was 1 in 3,200. To bring that down to one person being hit every 10 years you would have to have 3,200 similar-sized objects falling in a 10 year period, or about one per day. That clearly isn't the case.

So I still think suggesting a one in a billion chance of being hit is being extremely alarmist!

Quote from: Uncle Pete on November 17, 2013, 19:48
Those are not MY numbers, they are from the space agency. The idea was to explain that much lower number which was being misunderstood.

I'll give you their address and location and you can continue with the source. LOL NASA Johnson Space Center

Here's a nice page about it.

http://www.space.com/13034-falling-satellite-space-debris-injury-risk-uars.html

The ods that someone might get hit, 1 in 3200, "The odds that you will be hit … are 1 in several trillion,"

Quote from: BaldricksTrousers on November 11, 2013, 04:04
You're still a bit off there, I think. If the odds are one in a billion in a lifetime, then seven people will be hit by space junk over a 70 year span, which is one every 10 years. So far, the tally is zero and even though the chances of a hit are growing with the growing populations of people and of space junk, I think you are being overly pessimistic.

Uncle Pete · « **Reply #20 on:** November 19, 2013, 21:58 »

Just whistling past the graveyard. My Tarot cards say I'm fine.

Pete Knows Football. (which for people not playing along, I'm in last place in the fantasy league and last I looked, Barry is in first.)

I suppose if there's one for the playoffs I could post a link here and get beat by even more people? But it's free, so last place is still a win for me over an office pool.

Quote from: ruxpriencdiam on November 18, 2013, 22:41

no it aint so!

You mean no ocean front property in Arizona?

No aliens in area 51?

Ancient Aliens, Nostradamus?

Global warming?

But you buy a lottery ticket?

Hows bout a better chance at winning in the NFL challenge perhaps?

Mantis · « **Reply #21 on:** November 19, 2013, 22:05 »

A pigeon once sh&it on my head, does that count???

Uncle Pete · « **Reply #22 on:** November 19, 2013, 22:11 »

There are more pigeons than there is space junk. Sorry.

But if the pigeon was trained by BF Skinner you may be a very special target. His could play ping pong, guide missiles and I believe play tic tac toe? Or is that a chicken joke?

Quote from: Mantis on November 19, 2013, 22:05

A pigeon once sh&it on my head, does that count???

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Author Topic: The Sky is Falling! (Read 6906 times)

Uncle Pete

ruxpriencdiam

PeterChigmaroff

Beppe Grillo

ACS

ruxpriencdiam

Ron

BaldricksTrousers

Ron

Copidosoma

Uncle Pete

ruxpriencdiam

pancaketom

Uncle Pete

BaldricksTrousers

Imagenomad

Uncle Pete

BaldricksTrousers

Uncle Pete

ruxpriencdiam

Uncle Pete

Mantis

Uncle Pete

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