Author Topic: The Biden recession is coming. Brace yourselves. (Read 42397 times)

Justanotherphotographer · « **Reply #100 on:** July 21, 2022, 04:14 »

Quote from: Big Toe on July 21, 2022, 03:59

Looking back, there can be little doubt that it was a mistake that Germany shut down the nuclear power generation so quickly.

100% agree. Nuclear has to be part of the solution in the short/ medium term.

But Germany also has a much larger manufacturing sector than France so this is also part of the explanation. All of Western Europe is guilty of bragging about low emissions while outsourcing most of their manufacturing to China or other countries. It is VERY disingenuous and misleading. I am glad the younger generation seems to be able to see through this better than us old folks.

UPLOAD-UPLOAD-UPLOAD · « **Reply #101 on:** July 21, 2022, 04:48 »

Quote from: Wilm on July 21, 2022, 03:10

Joe,

And unfortunately, as you yourself have written, we are still waiting in vain for a breakthrough in nuclear fusion and other new technological advances.

Here ist the truth:
Perhaps the greatest stupidity of mankind - to give an allegorical example - is that it still thinks it can drive a V12 pickup truck with over 700 hp, weighing 2.5 tons and consuming over 20 liters per 100 km, to the bakery 500 meters away to get bread rolls.

Hahahahaha! I like that pickup truck. Have not seen one like this but it sounds like fun.
Germany has a massive problem producing electricity. That is why they are powering up coal powered plants.
The other problem is fuel. Fuel for cars and trucks is not that much of the equation. Fuel use for cargo ships is enormous.
About 60,000 gallons of marine fuel per day! Add in the airplanes and the military use and pretty soon you are talking big numbers.
Yeah, a lot of people all over the world are stupid crazy in their use of automobiles and trucks. But that is a tiny number compared to the industrial uses.
I myself right now drive a GMC Terrain. I get about 20 mpg give or take. I'm waiting for my new Ford Transit Connect cargo van so I can travel more and camp out. Because it's 10 years newer than my Terrain it does get slightly better mileage. About 24 mpg in city.
I have waited on that van for 6 months now and have only 6 more months to go. World wide chip shortage they tell me.
The blame game won't solve anything. Wishing won't solve anything. The truth is we are about 30 years from converting from current
energy production into carbon free energy production. There is nothing politicians, activists or loony tunes can do to speed this up.
Most of the goodies like converting CO2 into gasoline or other fuels is decades away. Most methods in the lab don't make it into reality because of cost or whatever. Those that do are decades from lab to mass production.
America is doing a super job in the green energy field. We have different states like California and Texas who have a totally different approach to name just a few. Once something becomes profitable to do you can bet the evil energy companies will jump on it.
For now the entire planet is on a fossil fuel diet because fossil fuels are cheap.
Me? I'm not going to worry about it. I'm 77 years old, so I'm not buying solar panels for my house. I will never get the money back.
I have 4 air conditioners in my home. Sometimes I use all four on full turbo blast. This week temperatures have been in triple digits every day. BUT the electricity I use comes from a nuclear power plant with natural gas plants to kick in when electric use spikes.
Coal fired plants in America are being converted to natural gas. It's a slow process. People seem to think a politician can just snap his or her fingers and cure the problem. Good luck with that.

Milleflore · « **Reply #102 on:** July 21, 2022, 05:54 »

Quote from: UPLOAD-UPLOAD-UPLOAD on July 21, 2022, 04:48

America is doing a super job in the green energy field. We have different states like California and Texas who have a totally different approach to name just a few. Once something becomes profitable to do you can bet the evil energy companies will jump on it.
For now the entire planet is on a fossil fuel diet because fossil fuels are cheap.
Me? I'm not going to worry about it. I'm 77 years old, so I'm not buying solar panels for my house. I will never get the money back.
I have 4 air conditioners in my home. Sometimes I use all four on full turbo blast. This week temperatures have been in triple digits every day. BUT the electricity I use comes from a nuclear power plant with natural gas plants to kick in when electric use spikes.
Coal fired plants in America are being converted to natural gas. It's a slow process. People seem to think a politician can just snap his or her fingers and cure the problem. Good luck with that.

You make it sound like the USA is right on track for environmental issues, Joe, but I doubt whether this is true. A lot of damage was done by your former administration in particular.

The Trump administration rolled back 98 environmental rules and regulations, pulled out of the Paris Accord (the only nation that was not part of that agreement), supported gas and oil drilling in national forests and near national monuments and parks, signed executive orders to approve two controversial oil pipelines, announced plans to allow drilling in nearly all U.S. waters, the largest expansion of offshore oil and gas leasing ever proposed, he avoided environmental discussions at both the 44th G7 summit held in Canada and the 45th G7 summit, repealed the Clean Water Rule and rewrote the EPA's pollution-control policies—including policies on chemicals known to be serious health risks, and in 2019, the Administration completed plans for opening the entire coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling.

During his 2016 campaign, Trump often described global warming as a "hoax"; and sometimes attributed the "hoax" to the Chinese government as a plot to sabotage American manufacturing, but later claimed that had been a joke.

The Biden administration is reviewing all of these Trump policies for possible reversal, and rejoined the Paris Accord. However, the Supreme Court curbed "the Environmental Protection Agency's ability to broadly regulate carbon emissions from existing power plants, a major defeat for the Biden administration's attempts to slash emissions at a moment when scientists are sounding alarms about the accelerating pace of global warming". (June 30, 22)

There's still of work to be done, especially if your Congress is taken over by Republican majority in your November elections this year.

On a side note. We put in a full solar panel system with additional battery storage, in our home about 3 years ago, and its paid for itself. But of course, it depends on what the system costs, what government subsidies you get, if any, and what the cost of electricity is for you.

Wilm · « **Reply #103 on:** July 21, 2022, 07:46 »

"That is incorrect. Renewable energy sources cover 45% of the electric power generation, not the total energy demand. The latter is covered by about 20% with renewable energy. It should also be noted that the expansion of renewable energy production has been slowed down during the last years, for a number of reasons. So we still have a very long way to go and it won't be easy and it will take long time."

What you write is correct. For electricity generation, the share in 2020 was 45.2%, in 2021 it was 41.1%, for heat generation 16.5%, and for transportation 6.8%.

"And then again, France has only a little more than half the per capita CO2 emission than Germany (5 vs. 9.1 t). One of the reasons being their strong reliance on nuclear power."

Correct.

"Looking back, there can be little doubt that it was a mistake that Germany shut down the nuclear power generation so quickly."

As things stand now, that's probably the case. After Fukushima, people thought differently.
The question of the CO2 balance of nuclear power will be better judged by the countless generations after us than by us when it comes to storing, relocating, shielding, etc. nuclear waste for eternity.

Wilm · « **Reply #104 on:** July 21, 2022, 08:12 »

"But Germany also has a much larger manufacturing sector than France so this is also part of the explanation."

Yes, I think so, too.

"All of Western Europe is guilty of bragging about low emissions while outsourcing most of their manufacturing to China or other countries. It is VERY disingenuous and misleading. I am glad the younger generation seems to be able to see through this better than us old folks."

It is correct that Germany imports 40% more from China than it exports there. In this respect, you are right - of course, this is good for our own CO2 balance, because the dirt is produced elsewhere.

However, the CO2 balance of the USA would then worsen dramatically in comparison, because the USA imports more than three times as much from China compared to what it exports there.

Wilm · « **Reply #105 on:** July 21, 2022, 08:16 »

Quote from: UPLOAD-UPLOAD-UPLOAD on July 21, 2022, 04:48

Quote from: Wilm on July 21, 2022, 03:10
Joe,

And unfortunately, as you yourself have written, we are still waiting in vain for a breakthrough in nuclear fusion and other new technological advances.

Here ist the truth:
Perhaps the greatest stupidity of mankind - to give an allegorical example - is that it still thinks it can drive a V12 pickup truck with over 700 hp, weighing 2.5 tons and consuming over 20 liters per 100 km, to the bakery 500 meters away to get bread rolls.

Hahahahaha! I like that pickup truck. Have not seen one like this but it sounds like fun.
Germany has a massive problem producing electricity. That is why they are powering up coal powered plants.
The other problem is fuel. Fuel for cars and trucks is not that much of the equation. Fuel use for cargo ships is enormous.
About 60,000 gallons of marine fuel per day! Add in the airplanes and the military use and pretty soon you are talking big numbers.
Yeah, a lot of people all over the world are stupid crazy in their use of automobiles and trucks. But that is a tiny number compared to the industrial uses.
I myself right now drive a GMC Terrain. I get about 20 mpg give or take. I'm waiting for my new Ford Transit Connect cargo van so I can travel more and camp out. Because it's 10 years newer than my Terrain it does get slightly better mileage. About 24 mpg in city.
I have waited on that van for 6 months now and have only 6 more months to go. World wide chip shortage they tell me.
The blame game won't solve anything. Wishing won't solve anything. The truth is we are about 30 years from converting from current
energy production into carbon free energy production. There is nothing politicians, activists or loony tunes can do to speed this up.
Most of the goodies like converting CO2 into gasoline or other fuels is decades away. Most methods in the lab don't make it into reality because of cost or whatever. Those that do are decades from lab to mass production.
America is doing a super job in the green energy field. We have different states like California and Texas who have a totally different approach to name just a few. Once something becomes profitable to do you can bet the evil energy companies will jump on it.
For now the entire planet is on a fossil fuel diet because fossil fuels are cheap.
Me? I'm not going to worry about it. I'm 77 years old, so I'm not buying solar panels for my house. I will never get the money back.
I have 4 air conditioners in my home. Sometimes I use all four on full turbo blast. This week temperatures have been in triple digits every day. BUT the electricity I use comes from a nuclear power plant with natural gas plants to kick in when electric use spikes.
Coal fired plants in America are being converted to natural gas. It's a slow process. People seem to think a politician can just snap his or her fingers and cure the problem. Good luck with that.

Sorry, you are right, it's a V8 pickup - but power, weight and consumption data ist correct.

Zero Talent · « **Reply #106 on:** July 21, 2022, 08:19 »

All this discussion is OK, but there are other matters of much higher importance going on these days.
The global warming debate should not divert our attention from the abomination that is the invasion of Ukraine, for example, or from other reasons causing unnecessary deaths TODAY.
These urgent matters should be on the front page today, not problems that may happen 30 years from now.

This is a problem indeed, but a luxury problem.

Let's get our priorities straight.

Wilm · « **Reply #107 on:** July 21, 2022, 08:27 »

Of course, all this also affects me, because I wear clothes from China or Bangladesh, use Apple products from China, drink red wine from Australia, Chile or Spain, eat bananas from the Canary Islands and drive a car from Sweden...

Then there's the Internet usage. All the data traffic, streaming videos, etc. now consume more energy than global air traffic. And the trend is rising, if 4K and 8K formats eventually replace everything else.

I have to question my behavior and improve it.

Big Toe · « **Reply #108 on:** July 21, 2022, 11:53 »

Quote from: Zero Talent on July 21, 2022, 08:19

All this discussion is OK, but there are other matters of much higher importance going on these days.
The global warming debate should not divert our attention from the abomination that is the invasion of Ukraine, for example, or from other reasons causing unnecessary deaths TODAY.
These urgent matters should be on the front page today, not problems that may happen 30 years from now.

This is a problem indeed, but a luxury problem.

Let's get our priorities straight.

The war in the Ukraine may be more urgent now, but that does not mean that we can afford to ignore the climate change:

1. It is already happening. The average temperatures have already increased significantly.

2. We cannot decarbonize our economies in a few years. If we want to have near zero CO2 emissions in 30 years, we have to start in earnest now. And even then it will not be easy to manage it in this time frame.

3. There will always be some other crisis that seems more urgent at the moment. Now it is the war in the Ukraine, before it was Corona and next it may be about Taiwan or some other thing. We have to be able to handle the current crisies and still proceed with the energy transition.

cathyslife · « **Reply #109 on:** July 21, 2022, 12:16 »

Quote from: Firn on July 20, 2022, 13:53

Quote from: cathyslife on July 20, 2022, 13:24
LOL. Like man has any power over changing the climate.

You could benefit from following up with some science. You know, the intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behaviour of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment which scientists have devoted their lifes to in order to accumulate knowledge that makes them come to the conclusion that, yes, man has power over changing the climate. It's embarassing how many people think they have more knowledge over things others have studied for decades or how they think something like a quick youtube video can give them better education that decades of scientific study.

Thank you for the scolding, mother. I actually do read stuff from world climate scientists. Did you even watch the video, outlining how climate has changed over the centuries? Probably not.

I want to hear YOUR plan for how climate can be changed. There is lots we can do to clean up earth, but it still won’t change the climate.

I will continue to post my opinions here, just like everyone else. You think I’m an idiot? Bummer. Not going anywhere. Maybe you should not be one of the mean girls. Most of the time, I agree with what you say.

I am just like you. I read. I form an opinion. I do not think I know more than any climate scientist. I posted my OPINION. You do know the difference between expert facts and my opinion, right? Are YOU a climate expert? What makes your OPINION any more valid than mine? You guys crack me up.

Zero Talent · « **Reply #110 on:** July 21, 2022, 12:36 »

Quote from: Big Toe on July 21, 2022, 11:53

Quote from: Zero Talent on July 21, 2022, 08:19
All this discussion is OK, but there are other matters of much higher importance going on these days.
The global warming debate should not divert our attention from the abomination that is the invasion of Ukraine, for example, or from other reasons causing unnecessary deaths TODAY.
These urgent matters should be on the front page today, not problems that may happen 30 years from now.

This is a problem indeed, but a luxury problem.

Let's get our priorities straight.

The war in the Ukraine may be more urgent now, but that does not mean that we can afford to ignore the climate change:

1. It is already happening. The average temperatures have already increased significantly.

2. We cannot decarbonize our economies in a few years. If we want to have near zero CO2 emissions in 30 years, we have to start in earnest now. And even then it will not be easy to manage it in this time frame.

3. There will always be some other crisis that seems more urgent at the moment. Now it is the war in the Ukraine, before it was Corona and next it may be about Taiwan or some other thing. We have to be able to handle the current crisies and still proceed with the energy transition.

Let me be clear: global warming is real! I'm not saying that it should be ignored.

I'm saying that it shouldn't be on the front page or the main priority on our politician's agenda.

Urgent matters like the ones you described should always require our immediate attention and the prioritization of our scarce resources.

Innocent people being unnecessarily killed TODAY because of the madness of a paranoid dictator, by some deadly virus, by starvation, etc, should always be our main priority, ahead of threats that may (or may not) reach similar levels of destruction many, many years from now.

As I said, it's a rich-man problem. Luxury may come only after fulfilling basic necessities.

Milleflore · « **Reply #111 on:** July 21, 2022, 13:27 »

Quote from: Zero Talent on July 21, 2022, 08:19

All this discussion is OK, but there are other matters of much higher importance going on these days.
The global warming debate should not divert our attention from the abomination that is the invasion of Ukraine, for example, or from other reasons causing unnecessary deaths TODAY.
These urgent matters should be on the front page today, not problems that may happen 30 years from now.

This is a problem indeed, but a luxury problem.

Let's get our priorities straight.

What happened? Did you get out of the wrong side of the bed or something?

Anyway, the urgent part is that there is a critical USA midterm election coming up in less than 4 months time.

What happened to your Ukrainian war threads?

cascoly · « **Reply #112 on:** July 21, 2022, 13:34 »

Quote from: Wilm on July 20, 2022, 16:54

Quote from: cathyslife on July 20, 2022, 13:24
It’s just the latest thing we’re supposed to be afraid of. The sky is falling! The fix for climate change ... higher taxes! LOL. Like man has any power over changing the climate.

No, no human being can change anything. If these stupid aliens would finally stop tilting the earth's axis and irradiating the polar caps, the permafrost soils and the Amazon rain forests with their high-power lasers.
But as long as we cannot convert these aliens, we humans should in any case continue as before.

no, there's another conspiracy at play:
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/marjorie-taylor-greene-accuses-jewish-space-lasers-of-trying-to-shoot-down-santa

cascoly · « **Reply #113 on:** July 21, 2022, 13:50 »

Quote from: Wilm on July 21, 2022, 01:40

...

Against this background, I must naturally assume that Bezos' and Musk's private space programs serve solely to contact the aliens in order to participate in the extermination of their own customers.

Anyway: you can easily see that the aliens are a life-threatening problem.

one of the best scifi novels i've read in recent years is Cixin Liu's 3 body problem, which tackles that problem

https://grrm.livejournal.com/426205.html
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/tv/tv-news/netflix-3-body-cast-1235169990/

also apropos climate extremes, from one of my favorite authors -
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/50998056-the-ministry-for-the-future

In the aftermath of a horrific heat wave that kills 20 million people in India – Robinson describes thousands being “poached” in a lake where they fled to escape the heat

Robinson has a geeky, exuberant imagination and likes to pick up pieces of the world and examine them like a geologist examines rocks. In the novel’s 106 chapters, he riffs on blockchain technology, Jevon’s Paradox, carbon taxes, ice sheet dynamics, quantitative easing, among other things. He pays a lot of attention to how money moves around in a carbon-based economy, and may understand the financial underpinnings of the climate crisis better than any writer I’ve encountered. But he’s not afraid to get weird: He writes short chapters from the point of view of a carbon molecule, a photon, and a caribou. https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/the-ministry-for-the-future-interview-kim-stanley-robinson-1101738/

cascoly · « **Reply #114 on:** July 21, 2022, 13:57 »

Quote from: Big Toe on July 21, 2022, 11:53

...
The war in the Ukraine may be more urgent now, but that does not mean that we can afford to ignore the climate change:

1. It is already happening. The average temperatures have already increased significantly.

2. We cannot decarbonize our economies in a few years. If we want to have near zero CO2 emissions in 30 years, we have to start in earnest now. And even then it will not be easy to manage it in this time frame.

3. There will always be some other crisis that seems more urgent at the moment. Now it is the war in the Ukraine, before it was Corona and next it may be about Taiwan or some other thing. We have to be able to handle the current crisies and still proceed with the energy transition.

and for yet another priority:
https://www.cold-takes.com/ai-could-defeat-all-of-us-combined/

Holden Karnofsky has a solid history of thought-provoking blogs & actual action as co-CEO of Open Philanthropy and co-founder of GiveWell

https://www.cold-takes.com/about/

Zero Talent · « **Reply #115 on:** July 21, 2022, 13:57 »

Quote from: Annie on July 21, 2022, 13:27

Quote from: Zero Talent on July 21, 2022, 08:19
All this discussion is OK, but there are other matters of much higher importance going on these days.
The global warming debate should not divert our attention from the abomination that is the invasion of Ukraine, for example, or from other reasons causing unnecessary deaths TODAY.
These urgent matters should be on the front page today, not problems that may happen 30 years from now.

This is a problem indeed, but a luxury problem.

Let's get our priorities straight.

What happened? Did you get out of the wrong side of the bed or something?

Anyway, the urgent part is that there is a critical USA midterm election coming up in less than 4 months time.

What happened to your Ukrainian war threads?

Lol, I had a perfect sleep last night!

It's not just a thought that popped up in my mind this morning.

What I said above is also what I told to people who knocked on my door to ask me to vote for a representative, who had global warming on top of her agenda. I told them to move it to #10 or so, and to deal with urgent matters first, matters that are impacting people's life TODAY. Or else she might lose her election, allowing some Trumpet to take her spot in congress.

We can't afford to play God and trade the life of people who are dying today, against the life of people who may or may not die sometime in the distant future.

PS. Those Ukraine threads were not mine. I only replied to a couple of them, meanwhile deleted by the admin, for some unknown reason.

Milleflore · « **Reply #116 on:** July 21, 2022, 15:13 »

Quote from: Zero Talent on July 21, 2022, 13:57

Lol, I had a perfect sleep last night! It's not just a thought that popped up in my mind this morning.

What I said above is also what I told to people who knocked on my door to ask me to vote for a representative, who had global warming on top of her agenda. I told them to move it to #10 or so, and to deal with urgent matters first, matters that are impacting people's life TODAY. Or else she might lose her election, allowing some Trumpet to take her spot in congress.

We can't afford to play God and trade the life of people who are dying today, against the life of people who may or may not die sometime in the distant future.

PS. Those Ukraine threads were not mine. I only replied to a couple of them, meanwhile deleted by the admin, for some unknown reason.

There is a correlation between the two topics of course. I have been meaning to bring up Russia. With certain European countries still relying on Russian oil, that is empowering Putin.

There may not be an overnight solution, but I can't help but think that continually pushing this issue back to #10 priority is what has got us here in the first place. I understand that many Americans have other issues furthermost in their minds right now, but raising the issue, rather than burying it, may help to increase understanding and knowledge.

Right now there are deaths, destruction, and heat devastations happening around the world, maybe not so much in USA as in Europe at the moment, and even drastically affecting our very own contributor, Pacesetter, right here.

I'll go back to why I started this discussion in the first place. There is not much more to say:

Quote

"Extreme heat in 21 European countries and USA danger zones with 100 million plus population, threaten food supply, travel and even lives.

Multiple heatwaves across the globe. London officials saying they have never seen heatwaves on this scale before. In Spain, France, and Italy, wildfires are spreading rapidly. In major cities, travel is disrupted, trains & flights are cancelled due to the heat and causing a global ripple effect. Hundreds have died in Portugal. Over a 1,000 deaths in Europe. Scientists have been warning about global warming for decades, and now say that heat devastation is here and is a crisis." (Source: CNN)

"Heat alerts across 20 USA states. Fire west of Forth Worth burning more than 500 acres. Chalk Mountain fire burning 1,000 acres. Fires straining power grids in Texas. Boston declares heat emergency today. Sweltering summer that has shattered heat records across the USA. Climate prediction center forecasts dangerous conditions will prevail over the next few weeks for much of 48 states.

Today was the hottest day ever recorded in most of Europe. Record temperatures recorded in France, Ireland and Germany. Record breaking heatwave in UK. London has for the first time ever issued a red warning for extreme heat. Airport runways are melting. The sun is buckling train tracks. Surge of huge fires across UK's capitol. The British government has estimated that these extreme temperatures have been made 10 times more likely by human impact.

There were so many emergencies in London today that the Fire Brigade has run out of all their fire engines."**

This was the news that I woke up to this morning.

**CNNs words not mine.

Big Toe · « **Reply #117 on:** July 21, 2022, 16:23 »

Quote from: cathyslife on July 21, 2022, 12:16

I actually do read stuff from world climate scientists.

Is that so?

Quote from: cathyslife on July 21, 2022, 12:16

I want to hear YOUR plan for how climate can be changed. There is lots we can do to clean up earth, but it still won’t change the climate.

Except that it will. The release of greenhouse gases (mainly CO2, but also some other gases like methane) increase the temperature of a planet. Therefore, reductions in the release of greenhouse gases reduce this increase. There are also some gases that can reduce the temperature, like sulphur dioxide, although the side effects of that gas make it unfeasible to use it to control the climate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

Have your world climate scientists never mentioned greenhouse gases?

Wilm · « **Reply #118 on:** July 21, 2022, 16:40 »

Quote from: Zero Talent on July 21, 2022, 08:19

All this discussion is OK, but there are other matters of much higher importance going on these days.
The global warming debate should not divert our attention from the abomination that is the invasion of Ukraine, for example, or from other reasons causing unnecessary deaths TODAY.
These urgent matters should be on the front page today, not problems that may happen 30 years from now.

This is a problem indeed, but a luxury problem.

Let's get our priorities straight.

The most common reason for wars is disputes over access to important resources. If the climate issue continues to develop in this way, water will be the raw material that causes more wars than oil, gas and coal combined. And that won't just become a problem in 30 years.

The second most common reason is power. I fear that soon, near Ukraine, the Syrian conflict will be reignited. When you fear losing power (i.e. an election), you shift your domestic problems to the outside. The fire in Syria could be doused with gasoline once again by Erdogan in a very short time. He must show strength and divert attention from inflation and his country's economic problems. And he doesn't want to be talked into it by Putin and Raisi (Khamenei). Just as little, as China in relation to Taiwan. Or Hong Kong.

The first issue, Zero Talent, seems far away and the second so close. But we must not deceive ourselves there, because the first theme only seems more fictional and therefore not so important. But this is a fallacy.

Zero Talent · « **Reply #119 on:** July 21, 2022, 17:54 »

Quote from: Wilm on July 21, 2022, 16:40

Quote from: Zero Talent on July 21, 2022, 08:19
All this discussion is OK, but there are other matters of much higher importance going on these days.
The global warming debate should not divert our attention from the abomination that is the invasion of Ukraine, for example, or from other reasons causing unnecessary deaths TODAY.
These urgent matters should be on the front page today, not problems that may happen 30 years from now.

This is a problem indeed, but a luxury problem.

Let's get our priorities straight.

The most common reason for wars is disputes over access to important resources. If the climate issue continues to develop in this way, water will be the raw material that causes more wars than oil, gas and coal combined. And that won't just become a problem in 30 years.

The second most common reason is power. I fear that soon, near Ukraine, the Syrian conflict will be reignited. When you fear losing power (i.e. an election), you shift your domestic problems to the outside. The fire in Syria could be doused with gasoline once again by Erdogan in a very short time. He must show strength and divert attention from inflation and his country's economic problems. And he doesn't want to be talked into it by Putin and Raisi (Khamenei). Just as little, as China in relation to Taiwan. Or Hong Kong.

The first issue, Zero Talent, seems far away and the second so close. But we must not deceive ourselves there, because the first theme only seems more fictional and therefore not so important. But this is a fallacy.

No, I never said the problem is fictional. Global warming is real.
I'm only saying that it has a lower priority than many other urgent matters, TODAY.

People unnecessarily dying TODAY is an undeniable reality, people dying in the distant future is a probability.

Certainty beats probability.

If politicians will continue to neglect clear and present dangers, happening under their eyes, in favor of future problems that may or may not happen as we think today, they will only lose elections against global warming deniers, and we will end up being ruled by stupid people.

And that's the reality many idealists fail to acknowledge.

Justanotherphotographer · « **Reply #120 on:** July 22, 2022, 02:00 »

Quote from: Zero Talent on July 21, 2022, 17:54

No, I never said the problem is fictional. Global warming is real.
I'm only saying that it has a lower priority than many other urgent matters, TODAY.

People unnecessarily dying TODAY is an undeniable reality, people dying in the distant future is a probability.

Certainty beats probability.

If politicians will continue to neglect clear and present dangers, happening under their eyes, in favor of future problems that may or may not happen as we think today, they will only lose elections against global warming deniers, and we will end up being ruled by stupid people.

And that's the reality many idealists fail to acknowledge.

Climate change linked to to 5 million deaths in 2021 alone...

EDIT: I am not prepared to go to bat over this exact figure as I have only been able to find the headlines and not the original study (which may be behind a paywall). My point is climate change is causing many deaths today. There will always be another “more pressing” event to take the spotlight. More wars will even be happening because of climate change. Fighting over water, need for more liveable or farm-able land as areas become uninhabitable. We need to walk and chew bubble gum on this one.

Zero Talent · « **Reply #121 on:** July 22, 2022, 07:56 »

Quote from: Justanotherphotographer on July 22, 2022, 02:00

Quote from: Zero Talent on July 21, 2022, 17:54

No, I never said the problem is fictional. Global warming is real.
I'm only saying that it has a lower priority than many other urgent matters, TODAY.

People unnecessarily dying TODAY is an undeniable reality, people dying in the distant future is a probability.

Certainty beats probability.

If politicians will continue to neglect clear and present dangers, happening under their eyes, in favor of future problems that may or may not happen as we think today, they will only lose elections against global warming deniers, and we will end up being ruled by stupid people.

And that's the reality many idealists fail to acknowledge.

Climate change linked to to 5 million deaths in 2021 alone...

EDIT: I am not prepared to go to bat over this exact figure as I have only been able to find the headlines and not the original study (which may be behind a paywall). My point is climate change is causing many deaths today. There will always be another “more pressing” event to take the spotlight. More wars will even be happening because of climate change. Fighting over water, need for more liveable or farm-able land as areas become uninhabitable. We need to walk and chew bubble gum on this one.

You are not ready to back up that number, but you are still throwing it in the discussion. Not a good practice.

Anyway, here is what the WHO is saying:

The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that climate change is responsible for at least 150,000 deaths per year, a number that is expected to double by 2030

That's an order of magnitude less than your number.

In the US, there are claims of between 600 to 1300 deaths/year "linked to climate change". While these deaths are unfortunate, their relatively low number, can't justify climate change as a top priority.

You are proving my point. This type of exaggeration is impacting the credibility of those who make the climate change argument.
In fact, there are studies showing that due to technological progress, fewer people are dying from natural disasters today compared with a century ago.

Politicians who make such exaggerated claims are chasing their voters away, making room for climate change deniers.

Justanotherphotographer · « **Reply #122 on:** July 22, 2022, 08:02 »

Well it's the first study of it's kind and seems legitimate. I am not just throwing out headlines,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-07/climate-change-linked-to-5-million-deaths-a-year-new-study-shows#xj4y7vzkg

I'm just more cautious than most about these things and haven't had the time to review the paper. People more qualified then me have been reporting it as you can see.

Sorry trying to link on my phone while not at my best. I will fix tomorrow. You can google 5m deaths climate change and find it easily enough.

Milleflore · « **Reply #123 on:** July 22, 2022, 14:14 »

I finally found some backup to the news report I mentioned above. Its on Jake Tapper's podcast, if anyone is interested in listening to it.

https://edition.cnn.com/audio/podcasts/the-lead-with-jake-tapper/episodes/f54d0298-9268-41dc-b986-aed7017ec5f4

cascoly · « **Reply #124 on:** July 23, 2022, 19:59 »

Quote from: Zero Talent on July 22, 2022, 07:56

....

In the US, there are claims of between 600 to 1300 deaths/year "linked to climate change". While these deaths are unfortunate, their relatively low number, can't justify climate change as a top priority.

You are proving my point. This type of exaggeration is impacting the credibility of those who make the climate change argument.
In fact, there are studies showing that due to technological progress, fewer people are dying from natural disasters today compared with a century ago.

deaths aren't the main argument for dealing w climate change - the reason to deal w it NOW is that we continue to make the situation worse and future decades will bring much more serious effects

just one excample - the arctic icecap used to reflect a large portion of the sun's radiation (aka heat) now the arctic becomes open earlier each year, leading to more heating, leading to earlier disappearance.

droughts will worsen, coasts will be inundated, crops will fail- but one of the major reasons for lack of political response (not counting those who dont even admit it's happening) is that those are long term problems, but neither corporate concentration on short term profits, nor politicians who focus only on the next election lead to any effective response today

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