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Author Topic: where is the $ heading??  (Read 13744 times)

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« Reply #25 on: April 29, 2011, 15:12 »
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There is a solution. A dollar is still worth a dollar here.  ;D

not if you want to buy something in other parts of the world  ;)

but on the other hand... making a vacation in the USA (or shopping) has become verry cheap (from an european point of view).


lthn

    This user is banned.
« Reply #26 on: April 29, 2011, 15:24 »
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Leave your money on Moneybookers or on Paypal if US dollar is your account currency and wait for a better time...
Probably next will be better...
One potential problem with that is that Paypal can refuse you access to your own account at any time. They can do this if there is a problem with your account, even if it is not your fault. You might keep this in mind if there is a chance that you will need the Paypal money in a hurry.

I used to keep a lot of money in Paypal back when they paid some real interest, but I stopped when I learned that they can refuse people access to their accounts. Paypal is not a bank.

Bank can refuse acces to your money anytime, its just something so far out and unbeleivable to most americans or europeans... but ask someone from argentina...

If the dollar collapses, millions of peple will be refused their money by the banks all over the world.


I think that happened in 1929. 
But, if you believe everything you hear (or read), none of this will matter after December 2012.   :o ;D

Things like that happened several times all over the world since that... but not of the magnitude we are facing now. What I'm afraid is that it will matter after 2012, for years and we'll have to live with it : )

« Reply #27 on: April 29, 2011, 17:29 »
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While we are bashing the US dollar, lets do a little bashing of the Euro. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro doesn't even exist in 5 years. Some prominent European economists are wondering the same thing, because ultimately Europe has to deal with the bipolar nature of its economic structure. On the one hand you have economies like Germany that are historically very strong, while on the other end you have economies like Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland that are in the toilet, and asking for hand outs. In the past this disparity was managed by the poorer countries devaluing their currencies...but that can't be done under a continent wide one currency system. At some point the Germans and the French are going to get tired of carrying the load, and how that plays out will be interesting.

As for the dire prediction that the US can't solve its problems....I'll bet when push comes to shove they will. It won't be pretty, but they will because they have to. And part of that fix will be to stop playing nice with the Chinese on their currency, and the massive trade imbalance it creates.

And something else to keep in perspective...despite all the doom and gloom, America's per capita debt was until the last year or so, on par with other major European countries.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2011, 17:35 by gwhitton »

velocicarpo

« Reply #28 on: April 29, 2011, 17:53 »
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While we are bashing the US dollar, lets do a little bashing of the Euro. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro doesn't even exist in 5 years. Some prominent European economists are wondering the same thing, because ultimately Europe has to deal with the bipolar nature of its economic structure. On the one hand you have economies like Germany that are historically very strong, while on the other end you have economies like Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland that are in the toilet, and asking for hand outs. In the past this disparity was managed by the poorer countries devaluing their currencies...but that can't be done under a continent wide one currency system. At some point the Germans and the French are going to get tired of carrying the load, and how that plays out will be interesting.

As for the dire prediction that the US can't solve its problems....I'll bet when push comes to shove they will. It won't be pretty, but they will because they have to. And part of that fix will be to stop playing nice with the Chinese on their currency, and the massive trade imbalance it creates.

And something else to keep in perspective...despite all the doom and gloom, America's per capita debt was until the last year or so, on par with other major European countries.

True. The Euro has its Problems too, which shows that the current system of Fiat lux money is not working. BUUUT....as you already said europe is sort of bipolar. You have the stable north (exept Ireland) and the unstable south. But if you ahve a look at the USA they more or less equal to states like Greece and have NO backup like Germany or France to hold them up. So the risk for the USA is definitly higher.

« Reply #29 on: April 29, 2011, 18:07 »
0
While we are bashing the US dollar, lets do a little bashing of the Euro. I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro doesn't even exist in 5 years. Some prominent European economists are wondering the same thing, because ultimately Europe has to deal with the bipolar nature of its economic structure. On the one hand you have economies like Germany that are historically very strong, while on the other end you have economies like Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland that are in the toilet, and asking for hand outs. In the past this disparity was managed by the poorer countries devaluing their currencies...but that can't be done under a continent wide one currency system. At some point the Germans and the French are going to get tired of carrying the load, and how that plays out will be interesting.

As for the dire prediction that the US can't solve its problems....I'll bet when push comes to shove they will. It won't be pretty, but they will because they have to. And part of that fix will be to stop playing nice with the Chinese on their currency, and the massive trade imbalance it creates.

And something else to keep in perspective...despite all the doom and gloom, America's per capita debt was until the last year or so, on par with other major European countries.

True. The Euro has its Problems too, which shows that the current system of Fiat lux money is not working. BUUUT....as you already said europe is sort of bipolar. You have the stable north (exept Ireland) and the unstable south. But if you ahve a look at the USA they more or less equal to states like Greece and have NO backup like Germany or France to hold them up. So the risk for the USA is definitly higher.

I think a fairer way of looking at the US is at the overall assets of its people. Is the US really broke when it produces consistently a $14 trillion dollar economy every year? I would say not. The reality is we are a lot like Greece, which if you look under the covers isn't broke either.  There are just alot of people who don't want to pay for the government services they demand each year from their politicians. For most of the 100 years America had much higher taxes than we do right now and we did just fine. In fact some of our greatest growth occurred with the upper tax bracket at 90%+ .

The minute we learn to live within our means and quite whining about a paltry tax rate in comparison to just about anywhere else....the better off we'll be.

« Reply #30 on: April 29, 2011, 18:32 »
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Just had a look at a 5 year chart of the Euro v USD and it's not near its highs.  Will be interesting to see if the USD bounces back or if it continues to slide and the Euro does make new highs.  GBP is falling against the Euro.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

« Reply #31 on: April 29, 2011, 18:43 »
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But if you put line between tops and line between bottoms you' ll see downtrend in long term...

« Reply #32 on: April 29, 2011, 20:38 »
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Well, Brazilian Real is very valued at the moment, what is actually bad for a good part of our economy, but the fact is that money is flowing in.

I look at hotel prices in Euros for my trip and they sound expensive to me until I convert them to Reais.

Not that I believe any stock site will start using Reais as a standard currency.  ;D

« Reply #33 on: April 30, 2011, 02:56 »
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Its the National Budget Deficit and not the trade deficit that is weakening the dollar in my view. After 30 years of Globalization, the large corporations have become trans-national with no national allegiance,  their lobbyists have bought enough politicians to rig the tax codes so they pay no real taxes, . . . . . Example: GE  had immense profits last year and payed no US taxes, in fact they claimed a rebate of $2 billion .  Exxon, which has become the most profitable company in history with immense profits,  pays not taxes . . .  they also got $150 million back from American tax payers.  That and the fact that the top 5%  of US tax payers have a effective tax rate of 16.5% says to to me that those Lobbyists have done their job over the years . . . .  the US is now a Oligarchy . . . . . .  their job now is to remove the rest of the New Deal, which the Republicans have just voted 100% to do in their latest budget in the House.

Sorry to non-Americans for this rant, but this is a family fight that does in the longer run effect everyone.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2011, 03:06 by etienjones »

« Reply #34 on: April 30, 2011, 02:58 »
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dup message, sorry
« Last Edit: April 30, 2011, 03:00 by etienjones »

« Reply #35 on: April 30, 2011, 04:00 »
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So, buyers get 20% or more less prices in last year only because falling of Dollar...

« Reply #36 on: April 30, 2011, 04:53 »
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So, buyers get 20% or more less prices in last year only because falling of Dollar...

1. Only NON US buyers. US buyers are most of the market...
2. 20% is quite a lot. in most contries the drop was a less steep.

Reef

  • astonmars.com
« Reply #37 on: April 30, 2011, 05:12 »
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1. Only NON US buyers. US buyers are most of the market...
2. 20% is quite a lot. in most contries the drop was a less steep.

1. Not sure about US buyers being most of the market
2. close to 50% in Australia

« Reply #38 on: April 30, 2011, 07:03 »
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1. Only NON US buyers. US buyers are most of the market...
2. 20% is quite a lot. in most contries the drop was a less steep.


1. Not sure about US buyers being most of the market
2. close to 50% in Australia


1. I am.
2. Not true. you can have a look here:
http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

« Reply #39 on: April 30, 2011, 07:15 »
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So, buyers get 20% or more less prices in last year only because falling of Dollar...

1. Only NON US buyers. US buyers are most of the market...
2. 20% is quite a lot. in most contries the drop was a less steep.

Thats not my case, my buyers arent in the US and thanks god if they were I would have another big 10% cut! I have like 10% income from USA buyers, maybe less
« Last Edit: April 30, 2011, 07:19 by luissantos84 »

« Reply #40 on: April 30, 2011, 07:42 »
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So, buyers get 20% or more less prices in last year only because falling of Dollar...

1. Only NON US buyers. US buyers are most of the market...
2. 20% is quite a lot. in most contries the drop was a less steep.

Thats not my case, my buyers arent in the US and thanks god if they were I would have another big 10% cut! I have like 10% income from USA buyers, maybe less

Being on so many sites how would you know this ?
I sell only on IS and more then 50% of purchases are from the USA.  I know other sites have a stronger presentce in the european market, but I am sure that most of IS buyers come from the US.  The US is the biggest market in general for IP.

Not that at matters really, I don't really care from where my buyers are, a long as they keep on buying :)

microstockphoto.co.uk

« Reply #41 on: April 30, 2011, 07:50 »
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Less than 10% of my Shutterstock sales are from the USA.
But I have many pictures of European cities in my port.
Percentage is slightly higher (about 30%) on Veer.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2011, 07:52 by microstockphoto.co.uk »

« Reply #42 on: April 30, 2011, 08:11 »
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So, buyers get 20% or more less prices in last year only because falling of Dollar...

1. Only NON US buyers. US buyers are most of the market...
2. 20% is quite a lot. in most contries the drop was a less steep.

Thats not my case, my buyers arent in the US and thanks god if they were I would have another big 10% cut! I have like 10% income from USA buyers, maybe less

Being on so many sites how would you know this ?
I sell only on IS and more then 50% of purchases are from the USA.  I know other sites have a stronger presentce in the european market, but I am sure that most of IS buyers come from the US.  The US is the biggest market in general for IP.

Not that at matters really, I don't really care from where my buyers are, a long as they keep on buying :)

Sorry but I if I say I know I guess I really know, NO? almost IS is the only agency not taking taxes from USA sales

« Reply #43 on: April 30, 2011, 08:29 »
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Less than 10% of my Shutterstock sales are from the USA.
But I have many pictures of European cities in my port.
Percentage is slightly higher (about 30%) on Veer.

Me too!

Even without lot of landscapes of Europe...

« Reply #44 on: April 30, 2011, 08:54 »
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Of course it depends from site to site, but what I see in FT is a very small % of US-buyers (easy to see due to the tax cut). Also in DT, but I can only see the tax cut clearly in subs, the % of US buyers is small. They are however the majority in FP, almost all my sales there are being taxed.

« Reply #45 on: April 30, 2011, 09:04 »
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Its the National Budget Deficit and not the trade deficit that is weakening the dollar in my view...".

What evidence do you base that on?  Over the last 5 years the dollar has been higher and it has been lower against most international currencies (exception might be the Swiss Franc).  If there was any great fear of the dollar dropping badly interest rates should be going up but 10 year TBill is about as low as it has ever been in the last 40 years and the 30 year Treasury is at 4.40%!  If people are willing to lend the U.S. money at that rate for 30 years they must have some confidence in the dollar.

fred

ShadySue

  • There is a crack in everything
« Reply #46 on: April 30, 2011, 09:18 »
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I sell only on IS and more then 50% of purchases are from the USA. 
Where did you get that figure? The last time I saw an official figure, which was ages ago, it was c40% from the US.

« Reply #47 on: April 30, 2011, 09:25 »
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I sell only on IS and more then 50% of purchases are from the USA. 
Where did you get that figure? The last time I saw an official figure, which was ages ago, it was c40% from the US.

OK just don't shoot me for getting it wrong by 10% ...
I know this by the hours in which I recieve sales.
I must say that ever since the last best match tweak the ex-US sales have gone up !

« Reply #48 on: April 30, 2011, 10:01 »
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Its the National Budget Deficit and not the trade deficit that is weakening the dollar in my view...".

What evidence do you base that on?  Over the last 5 years the dollar has been higher and it has been lower against most international currencies (exception might be the Swiss Franc).  If there was any great fear of the dollar dropping badly interest rates should be going up but 10 year TBill is about as low as it has ever been in the last 40 years and the 30 year Treasury is at 4.40%!  If people are willing to lend the U.S. money at that rate for 30 years they must have some confidence in the dollar.

fred


There are doubts about the health of the country's economy even though Geithner as said We will never seek to weaken our currency as a tool to gain competitive advantage or to grow the economy. . . . . . .  maybe.

S&P has recently suggested that that the United States' AAA credit rating could be downgraded.

The second-largest holder of Treasury debt, China, has stepped up rhetoric hinting that they might diversify their massive $3 trillion of currency reserves away from U.S. dollars.

Alan Greenspan has even attributed the dollar's weakness to large Federal budget deficits.

And who is buying all those government bonds.  The Fed has bought up hundreds of billions of dollars of  long-term U.S. Treasuries (QE2)

velocicarpo

« Reply #49 on: April 30, 2011, 10:42 »
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Well, Brazilian Real is very valued at the moment, what is actually bad for a good part of our economy, but the fact is that money is flowing in.

I look at hotel prices in Euros for my trip and they sound expensive to me until I convert them to Reais.

Not that I believe any stock site will start using Reais as a standard currency.  ;D

Yes! After living a couple of month in Sao Paulo I was fascinated with the power of Brazil. The real is very strong and will continue to grow. I actually thought about starting a real based internet business in this time. Nowadays I think I rather switch to euros.


 

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