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Author Topic: Envato acquired by Shutterstock  (Read 2940 times)

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« Reply #25 on: May 04, 2024, 11:44 »
+3
While I'm not disputing that their growth is definitely slowing, there's not really anything in this chart that gives the impression they are ''going bust''.

If you compare their Q1 2019 revenue from licensing content to Q1 2024 - i.e. 5 years ago, where you'd expect to see a lot of growth, especially considering all the companies they've acquired since then - they're essentially flat. $163.3m in 2019 versus $173.8m in 2024

Paid downloads 2019 were 47.2 million versus 35m in 2024. The size of the collection has grown (832m versus 275m). For number of subscribers I have a Q1 2020 number of 209m versus 499m in 2024

They've been trying to plug the growth hole with acquisitions and still end up flat. I noted all the frothy exuberance about the new DDS business in the earnings call; that and Envato are their latest efforts to get back to growth.

At this point they have no more contributor royalties to loot and had better hope one of these other bets pays off



« Reply #26 on: May 04, 2024, 12:11 »
+1
"At this point they have no more contributor royalties to loot and had better hope one of these other bets pays off
"

I wouldn't be so sure of that, royalties can always go lower and the minimum payout can go down to 5 cent or even 1 cent.

« Reply #27 on: May 04, 2024, 14:02 »
+1
Hey everyone, for those of you who also contribute to Envato, theres been an interesting development over there. In a long thread, a CodeCanyon artist has proposed creating a separate artist-run platform, independent of Envato. If this sounds like something youd be interested in, you can reach out to him directly through his profile. This could be a great opportunity for artists looking for more control over their work.

his profile:  https://codecanyon.net/user/migli?_ga=2.34370530.211304898.1714848633-176431728.1713785863
« Last Edit: May 23, 2024, 08:48 by bennu99 »

« Reply #28 on: May 04, 2024, 14:49 »
+3
"At this point they have no more contributor royalties to loot and had better hope one of these other bets pays off"
I wouldn't be so sure of that, royalties can always go lower and the minimum payout can go down to 5 cent or even 1 cent.

I should have phrased that better: Looting contributor royalties more won't give them enough money to fill in the drop in income from operations - the royalties are already so low.

I compared both FY 2023 to 2022 and also Q1 2024 to Q1 2023.

In the FY comparison, income from operations declined 27% over the prior year, to $68.4m. With 153m paid downloads, if they took another $0.05 from contributor royalties from each that would net them $7.65m which would result in $76.05m income from operations and a 19% decline from the previous year.

For Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023, income from operations declined 51% to $16.121m and with 35m paid downloads, taking another $0.05 gets them $1.75m to boost income from operations to $17.871 and only a 46% decline

If SS took $0.08 more from royalties they can improve that to declines of 14% and 42% - better but still not an increase in income.

Doesn't mean they wouldn't try additional royalty cuts if desperate, but there's no easy path to pleasing investors left given how low royalties are already and how much paid downloads have decreased.

« Reply #29 on: May 04, 2024, 22:06 »
0
That is a great and very detailed response, thank you.

But they can just literally cut all royalties paid out in half, couldnt they? Over all plans over all their agencies, including the 60% payout for exclusive p5 content.

I hope they dont, but there is always the incentive for quick money.

« Reply #30 on: May 05, 2024, 02:47 »
+1
I predicted in 2021 that Shutterstock would start to go under in a few years. They have already lost the dominant position they had at that time. Their stock price has collapsed and investors are not seeing any value in their expensive acquisitions (P5, Envato now , etc).

They stabbed in their back contributors in the worst time possible, and the "North" remembers as the saying in the great fantasy series. Many top dog contributors abandoned SS altogether. Sure ...they might increase number of content but....have you seen what is added in the new images and videos.........amateur shots, they can take as many as they want, be larger as Flickr ever was but the great content consumers are going to other agencies where they find what they cannot on SS anymore. And no content data training will avoid the shipwreck.

So I want to give a prophecy again. In under 3 years a big dog like Microsoft , Google, Meta will swallow up SS and all their content at a bargain price. We might see stock well under 20$ at that time.

« Reply #31 on: May 05, 2024, 06:59 »
+1
"At this point they have no more contributor royalties to loot and had better hope one of these other bets pays off
"

I wouldn't be so sure of that, royalties can always go lower and the minimum payout can go down to 5 cent or even 1 cent.

Or even dare I say $0.00  :(

« Reply #32 on: May 05, 2024, 11:23 »
+2
Of all the acquisitions over the years has any actually seen growth after the fact? It's like they're buying agencies only to stifle them slowly. Shutterstock stopped innovating a long time ago and focused solely on putting more and more weight on the camel's back. One of these days it's going to be the final straw, fellow camels

« Reply #33 on: May 06, 2024, 09:49 »
0
I predicted in 2021 that Shutterstock would start to go under in a few years. They have already lost the dominant position they had at that time. Their stock price has collapsed and investors are not seeing any value in their expensive acquisitions (P5, Envato now , etc).

They stabbed in their back contributors in the worst time possible, and the "North" remembers as the saying in the great fantasy series. Many top dog contributors abandoned SS altogether. Sure ...they might increase number of content but....have you seen what is added in the new images and videos.........amateur shots, they can take as many as they want, be larger as Flickr ever was but the great content consumers are going to other agencies where they find what they cannot on SS anymore. And no content data training will avoid the shipwreck.

So I want to give a prophecy again. In under 3 years a big dog like Microsoft , Google, Meta will swallow up SS and all their content at a bargain price. We might see stock well under 20$ at that time.

If you keep predicting the same things maybe one of these years you'll be right. So far you are 100% wrong about SS going out of business. None of those will buy SS as the Micro market is dying. They would want something that has a future.

« Reply #34 on: May 08, 2024, 09:47 »
+1

If you keep predicting the same things maybe one of these years you'll be right. So far you are 100% wrong about SS going out of business. None of those will buy SS as the Micro market is dying. They would want something that has a future.

Stock price has fallen from 125$ only a couple of years ago to 38 now.......and it will keep sinking........it's game over for them........

Uncle Pete

  • Great Place by a Great Lake - My Home Port
« Reply #35 on: May 13, 2024, 14:00 »
+1

If you keep predicting the same things maybe one of these years you'll be right. So far you are 100% wrong about SS going out of business. None of those will buy SS as the Micro market is dying. They would want something that has a future.

Stock price has fallen from 125$ only a couple of years ago to 38 now.......and it will keep sinking........it's game over for them........

It was always a $35 stock, IMHO, but all the blue hairs and speculators were taken in by the potential gains. It's the same as Crypto. Investors need to get on the train and convince other people, after that, that the stock is going up and has growth potential. Then the new people, buy and raise the value. Eventually the number of larger fools, dwindles and the price falls, people get out with some profit and the price falls.

Some people will see the price dropping and buy, which brings up the perceived value again, and the little bounce makes things look good. Then it drops, and financial reports show the flaws, and the price drops more. Until the value reaches the real value, instead of the inflated potential value. In an optimistic world, SS pays decent dividends and is a $40 stock.

The ride is over, unless they come up with something new. Just buying to control all aspects of the market, isn't going to make them a hero again.

The last peak was Feb 2023 when it was at $80. All time peak was $125 in 2021.

But, no SSTK isn't going out of business. Yes, the game is over. They have taken all the profits from the contributors and dropped prices and image values, to the floor. I don't think they can go any lower. (but I've been wrong about that about Microstock, in the past)


 

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