Something has to change.  Or I'm out.

I used to wear rose-colored glasses.  I'd insist that people who knew what they were doing could continue to grow their microstock income into the foreseeable future.

People who've done this longer than me called me naive.  But I said I'd never hit the wall because I had a unique niche, style and workflow.

Ha.

Over the past year, the wall has come down on me.  Hard.  Overall, I'm down from last year by 25%. 

I still try to improve.  Explore new topics.  Come up with new styles.  The result?  Still down by 25%.

Increased my port size by about 20% in the past year.  Earnings down 25%.

I'm now thinking that if I'm still in microstock five years from now, I'll be earning around one third of what I earn today.
<<< NEWSFLASH from five years in the future -- 2020 -- see my answer to the 2015 me on page 5 of this thread! >>>

Your results aren't the same as mine?  You're probably either still new(ish) to micrsotock and have yet to hit the Wall (when your rate of portfolio growth is lower than the rate of total agency portfolio growth).  Almost every single veteran who has been in the top seller ranks for several years is singing the same tune today... earnings are down and by BIG numbers.

My family and I have become addicted to this income.  I've been desperately trying to hold on to as much as I can, thinking things will get better.  But reality is finally sinking into my thick skull.  I know I may have to give it up and move on, and the sooner the better.

I'm been trying alternatives.  Selling on my own doesn't work.  (OK, I get some sales, but a tiny fraction of what I earn from agencies.  It could never replace that income.)   Video looks to be in a similar state as photos and illustrations.  There's a price war, far smaller number of buyers, and video veterans seem to have it even worse than photogs and illustrators.

So what's the point of all this whining? 

1. Trying to talk some sense into the heads of people who think this is a place to make decent money.  Don't get fooled by your first few months of a few dollars here and there.  The glory days of microstock are long gone.  The competition is too fierce.  The laws of supply and demand will crush you.

2. A wake-up call to agencies.  Your experienced contributors are going to drop like flies if you keep playing the "my collection is bigger than yours" game with your competition.  Why would any artists with talent want to waste their time at this if there's no return?  I'm one of your top-selling contributors.  You've told me so yourself, reaching out to me for feedback on your processes and latest offerings.  And I'm thinking of throwing in the towel.  If many more of your top-sellers feel the same way, and this forum suggests that they do, that's experience that can't easily be replaced.  Yes, new contributors will continue to pour in to replace us, but it will take years for them to develop the market knowledge it takes to supply images that your customers demand.

Microstock is broken.  It's unprofitable and unsustainable for contributors.  If the agencies think they can survive with content from hobbyists, they're mistaken, but will soon have to learn that the hard way.

My earnings are down 20% this year.  And my port is about 20% larger than it was last year.  VERY discouraging, so the OP's feelings are dead on with me.

I've been thinking about this a lot lately.  What's the future of microstock if every contributor starts seeing 20% reductions year after year, despite pouring many hours every day into this?

Not only will experienced microstockers give up, but why would a newbie even start?  If new uploads don't sell anywhere, a newbie must see no reason to put time into this if there's no ROI. 

Which leaves the hobbyists, those who are just happy to put their pictures online, and if they make a sale, it's gravy.  These can't be the contributors the agencies want.  They certainly won't attract buyers.  (I'm sure there are talented hobbyists out there, just like the odd singer on karaoke night surprises you with genuine talent, but they are the exception.)

I used to see microstock through rose-colored glasses and I couldn't envision a future where it would all go down in flames, but my glasses are now shattered and I feel blind.  I can't see the future anymore, and I can't see a reason to do this much longer.  Like the OP, I may need to rub my eyes, face a different direction and find something more rewarding to do with my time.

Everyone's mileage will vary.

My DT numbers tell a different story.  They're solidly my #3 and have been for several years.  Trend line is healthy.

I don't see evidence of a daily cap.

What I do see evidence of is SS playing with search algos.  There have been multiple wild swings in what gets served first in search results, and those have drastically affected my sales.  But no daily cap.  My numbers, which I watch like a hawk, don't support the theory.

But here's the reality that is keeping my earnings down, and WAY down: the dramatic, depressing rise in competition.  That's what has capped my earnings, and makes it a losing battle to achieve any growth.  My earnings at SS and everywhere else are down about 30% vs a year ago.  I know that's a different type of 'cap,' and not at all what the OP is referring to here, but it's what keeps ME up at night: a very real wall that is affecting us more than any tin-hat conspiracy.

I'll add my voice to the chorus... Lisa was one of the greats.  A person of great class.

But my take on the original question... Is it too late to start in microstocking?

If I tried starting today, I'd be earning a tiny fraction of what I started earning many years ago.  I think if I saw such a tiny stream of pennies coming in from my first uploads, I would do the math and decide it was a waste of time.

Maybe some people will see the pennies come in and decide they can double those pennies by doubling their port size.  That will work for a little while.  But they'll soon hit the wall -- when their rate of portfolio growth can't keep up with the 40+% rate of agency library growth, and those pennies will start trickling away, no matter how much harder they work to keep them.

So, yes, I think it's too late to start if you want to make any decent money.  The question for me now is, when is it too late for me to continue hitting my head against the wall to turn my revenue slide around.  I just can't shoot and upload enough to make this worthwhile any more.

Comparing my earnings in the first 11 days of July 2015 vs July 2014:

SS up 10%
FT up 35%

(Port size up about 30% during this period, so I'm not thrilled with that SS number.)

Did wave 2 of the Google purchases hit today?  Woke up to a large number of $2 subscription credits this morning.  Anyone else?

Far as I can tell, the breakdown looks something like this:

Top 10 = $3,000+ per month

Top 50 = $2,000+ per month

Top 100 = $1,000+ per month

So I'm wondering how many people had earnings higher than normal on FT today (launch day).

I know I did, and they were significantly higher.  But it's hard to tell how much of that was from  this being a good microstock day in general (all agencies were up for me today) or the increased commissions on FT, as opposed to business driven by Adobe Stock.

I have to think with all the media attention many CC subscribers would have tried it out today.  Perhaps they would have downloaded a lot of watermarked images to use in comps, but maybe too soon to see actual sales as those comps would now be routing for approvals and purchase decisions could take some time.

(This logic would at least suggest that we've had higher than normal FT image views today, and indeed... today I had more daily FT image views than any other day in the past month.)

April 15 up about 8% vs Apr 2014.

Comparing April to March is pointless, since March is always better than April.   I was down 10% from March 15 (BME) to April 15, which is a typical difference between the two months, so nothing of great insight there.

EDIT: In terms of avg daily income, Feb 15 was my BME.  But since there were only 28 days in Feb vs 31 in Mar, the total was a bit off.  So I'm calling Feb my BME since daily avg income is the more useful number to analyze.

Seriously, Spring Break? Does that affect a lot of businesses in the US? In Europe, businesses will usually only be closed on Good Friday and Easter Monday. Some parents will take time off to be with their kids in the school holidays, but businesses don't close for the duration.

Are we actually debating whether Americans or Europeans take more time off?  Did I just walk into the Twilight Zone? 

Reality check: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/01/worlds-most-paid-vacation-days_n_3697394.html?

I'm not saying that America has the right idea on this.  Just that it's funny to see people scoffing at Spring Break when Americans are known for not taking much of a break.

Been doing this for nearly 8 years.

Yes, April is always slow.  March is great, then April is 10-20% lower than March.  Reasons are Easter and Spring Break (I don't think taxes are to blame... businesses don't shut down when they have to file their returns... otherwise we'd see April 13-15 be terrible, and I've never seen that).  May will bounce back up a little, then we fall back down from June through August.  Things will get better Sept - Nov.  First half of Dec will be strong, then we fall off a cliff due to the holidays.  Jan through March are very strong, and the cycle starts again.  It's all very predictable, and the larger your port gets, the less variation in this pattern (assuming you're not heavy in seasonal or holiday pics)