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Author Topic: Shutterstock Reports Q3 2014 Results  (Read 12486 times)

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Hobostocker

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« Reply #25 on: November 07, 2014, 07:22 »
+1
I'm not proposing it as a policy for them, I'm just saying that the insane rate of growth in the collection isn't necessary, if they added a million or two images a year it would probably keep things fresh enough for the buyers to be happy.

exactly ! an "infinity" collection with billions of images is just NOT necessary and a waste of time and money for everybody involved including photographers who are shooting stuff that has no value and will keep doing it as long as SS keep accepting their uploads.

where are they heading ? like Alamy with millions and millions of unedited cr-ap that nobody wants ?
"obscure" subjects ? hard to find stuff ? "long tail" ?

in the past it made sense to have a few million images on sale, but now ? every possible subject and location and concept has been shot to death from any possible perspective.




« Reply #26 on: November 07, 2014, 07:22 »
0
They don't need to sustain the growth in the collection. If they stopped accepting images today they could probably still keep growing the business for years.

^ I believe that this is not necessarily the whole picture. As follows:

Shutterstock is clearly all about the revenues today. The revenues are without question impressive.

But in terms of the future of the stock - and apart from the revenues today ... it has some aspects in common with social networking stocks. Those sorts of tech stocks are invariably also partly valued on the number of active users and the extent of that activity. Partly because there is always the (flawed IMO) expectation that an active membership represents a future potential other business opportunity - when the business inevitably diversifies as it must if momentum is to be maintained.

Any analysis of the future direction of the stock is going to take in account data which relates to active engagement. The number of contributing members and the amount of content being contributed will be a relevant number (whether or not it really should be). There has to be the sense that SS is still the big thing.

The stock price is crucial. A company with a falling stock price quickly comes under pressure. The whole market has been kept afloat by QE for the past few years - and despite that being wound down the reality is that govt money will continue to flow for years via existing commitments.

(IMO - this thing about the amount of membership activity potentially affecting the price or future price is something which contributors often ignore when trying to work out, for example, why standards do not gradually get tighter).

« Reply #27 on: November 07, 2014, 07:24 »
+1
There's a price beyond which it isn't worth paying

considering the actual 2.7 billion capitalization and their 44 million images it would cost roughly 60$/image which is laughable as 80% of those pics hardly sell once or twice in their lifetime.

i think it's obvious their goal is a far sell out.
3 billions $ for SS is totally detached from reality, they've already squeezed the lemon to the bone, all they can hope for is gaining even more market share.

But they've already sold it, when they floated it on the stock exchange. Also, bear in mind that images are worth several times as much to the agencies as they are to us, plus you can play strange money-market games with companies, the way that Getty has been played by its various owners - nothing really to do with the intrinsive value of it's libraries.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2014, 07:27 by BaldricksTrousers »

« Reply #28 on: November 07, 2014, 07:24 »
0
There's a price beyond which it isn't worth paying

considering the actual 2.7 billion capitalization and their 44 million images it would cost roughly 60$/image which is laughable as 80% of those pics hardly sell once or twice in their lifetime.

i think it's obvious their goal is a far sell out.
3 billions $ for SS is totally detached from reality, they've already squeezed the lemon to the bone, all they can hope for is gaining even more market share.

You might think that the price is ridiculous however the market, the people that actually stump up the money, clearly do not. The price is set by the market and that's what they value it at.

Hobostocker

    This user is banned.
« Reply #29 on: November 07, 2014, 07:24 »
+1
SS could take their market-share to 80% over the next couple of years ... and that would be a significant cause for concern.

i'm sure this is what's gonna happen, at this point SS has an unlimited supply of cash and nobody can beat them at their own game, certainly not FT or DT.

« Reply #30 on: November 07, 2014, 07:28 »
0
SS could take their market-share to 80% over the next couple of years ... and that would be a significant cause for concern.

i'm sure this is what's gonna happen, at this point SS has an unlimited supply of cash and nobody can beat them at their own game, certainly not FT or DT.

Or DPC?

Hobostocker

    This user is banned.
« Reply #31 on: November 07, 2014, 07:34 »
0
The price is set by the market and that's what they value it at.

they've good reasons to market SS so high but it won't last forever, SS is not a tech/media company that is launching new product every year or that is doing M&As, all they're doing now is preparing the company for a sell out and yes the most obvious candidates for this are companies like apple/MS/google/adobe.


PaulieWalnuts

  • On the Wrong Side of the Business
« Reply #32 on: November 07, 2014, 07:35 »
+5
SS could take their market-share to 80% over the next couple of years ... and that would be a significant cause for concern.

i'm sure this is what's gonna happen, at this point SS has an unlimited supply of cash and nobody can beat them at their own game, certainly not FT or DT.

I'd agree.

I hope all of you people who rely on SS for income have a Plan B in place. Because they are running over the competition like a steam roller. When they have dominant market share, and stock price growth stalls, they will have no choice but to start changing contributor terms to improve their financials. And at that point they know they will be able to do whatever they want to contributors. Because IS has proven contributors will take severe abuse as long as the money keeps coming in. And I think SS has learned from IS's games where that fine line is between money and abuse. It's only a matter of time.

« Reply #33 on: November 07, 2014, 07:36 »
0
They don't need to sustain the growth in the collection. If they stopped accepting images today they could probably still keep growing the business for years.

^ I believe that this is not necessarily the whole picture. As follows:

Shutterstock is clearly all about the revenues today. The revenues are without question impressive.

But in terms of the future of the stock - and apart from the revenues today ... it has some aspects in common with social networking stocks. Those sorts of tech stocks are invariably also partly valued on the number of active users and the extent of that activity. Partly because there is always the (flawed IMO) expectation that an active membership represents a future potential other business opportunity - when the business inevitably diversifies as it must if momentum is to be maintained.

Any analysis of the future direction of the stock is going to take in account data which relates to active engagement. The number of contributing members and the amount of content being contributed will be a relevant number (whether or not it really should be). There has to be the sense that SS is still the big thing.

The stock price is crucial. A company with a falling stock price quickly comes under pressure. The whole market has been kept afloat by QE for the past few years - and despite that being wound down the reality is that govt money will continue to flow for years via existing commitments.

(IMO - this thing about the amount of membership activity potentially affecting the price or future price is something which contributors often ignore when trying to work out, for example, why standards do not gradually get tighter).

I think you are somewhat flawed in this. From the point of view of 'data collection' and 'social engagement' it is not the contributors who might be valued but the customers. Contributors number in 10's of thousands whereas customers, who actually spend money, number in the millions. Not that your theory probably holds for this anyway.

Have you heard of Strava? Strava are a website that enables cyclists and runners to upload their rides or runs, recorded on a GPS device, that can then be compared to others who have ridden the same route or user-generated 'segment'. The basic service is free and, a bit like Facebook, Strava are trying to work out ways to monetise their success. One valuable asset they have is the details of millions of cyclists from all around the world who tend to be fairly well-off and who spend an average of $3K per year on cycling gear. A lot of businesses would pay dearly to access that data.

Would the email addresses of image buyers be equally valuable?

« Reply #34 on: November 07, 2014, 07:41 »
+1
The price is set by the market and that's what they value it at.

they've good reasons to market SS so high but it won't last forever, SS is not a tech/media company that is launching new product every year or that is doing M&As, all they're doing now is preparing the company for a sell out and yes the most obvious candidates for this are companies like apple/MS/google/adobe.

As BT has already pointed out 'they' can't be "preparing the company for a sell-out" ... because 'they' already sold it in an IPO two years ago.

For all we know Apple or Google (or any other potential purchaser) could already have been buying SS, share by share, for a couple of years.

« Reply #35 on: November 07, 2014, 08:08 »
+1
I think you are somewhat flawed in this.

I'm not wrong in essence although I could probably have worded my post better. The rate of growth of the collection is an important number. Rightly or wrongly it is one measure of growth which is being taken into account. We know this, it's obvious, from the reporting.

Suppose for example that they were to report that uploads had declined. That would be taken as a negative.

« Reply #36 on: November 07, 2014, 08:13 »
+1
I agree the dominant market share is a concern but its not SS's fault is it? I doubt this industry will look the same in 5 years - if I knew what it would look like i'd be far too busy making a fortune to be worried about 33c subs ;D

« Reply #37 on: November 07, 2014, 09:44 »
0
I hope all of you people who rely on SS for income have a Plan B in place. Because they are running over the competition like a steam roller. When they have dominant market share, and stock price growth stalls, they will have no choice but to start changing contributor terms to improve their financials. And at that point they know they will be able to do whatever they want to contributors.
I don't know if you have to wait that long, from what I remember every earnings report investor call has had a question about royalty rates and the company is beating expectations every quarter.  It might just take one quarter of meeting expectations?

« Reply #38 on: November 07, 2014, 10:03 »
+1
I hope all of you people who rely on SS for income have a Plan B in place. Because they are running over the competition like a steam roller. When they have dominant market share, and stock price growth stalls, they will have no choice but to start changing contributor terms to improve their financials. And at that point they know they will be able to do whatever they want to contributors.
I don't know if you have to wait that long, from what I remember every earnings report investor call has had a question about royalty rates and the company is beating expectations every quarter.  It might just take one quarter of meeting expectations?

That would be a very dangerous game for SS to play. Istock already tried 'management by quarterly target review' when H&F were their masters ... and look where it got them.

If SS were to destroy itself through greed, as IS did, then another agency or two would simply step up to take their place.

I'd definitely have concerns if Oringer were to walk away but I don't think he will. It's now a game to him. He wants to make SS as big as possible and he knows that he won't achieve that by messing with either his customers or his contributors. If short-term greed were in his nature then we'd already have witnessed it. Instead the opposite is true.

« Reply #39 on: November 07, 2014, 10:08 »
+1
I hope all of you people who rely on SS for income have a Plan B in place. Because they are running over the competition like a steam roller. When they have dominant market share, and stock price growth stalls, they will have no choice but to start changing contributor terms to improve their financials. And at that point they know they will be able to do whatever they want to contributors.
I don't know if you have to wait that long, from what I remember every earnings report investor call has had a question about royalty rates and the company is beating expectations every quarter.  It might just take one quarter of meeting expectations?

That would be a very dangerous game for SS to play. Istock already tried 'management by quarterly target review' when H&F were their masters ... and look where it got them.

If SS were to destroy itself through greed, as IS did, then another agency or two would simply step up to take their place.

I'd definitely have concerns if Oringer were to walk away but I don't think he will. It's now a game to him. He wants to make SS as big as possible and he knows that he won't achieve that by messing with either his customers or his contributors. If short-term greed were in his nature then we'd already have witnessed it. Instead the opposite is true.
So far they have been consistent in saying they aren't planning on changing the royalty rates.  One thing that bothers me from their answers is that some quarters they say the royalty rate has been and will be 28% while other quarters (including the most recent one) they said the royalty rate was about 30%.  Maybe that's not such a big deal but with the amount of money they are dealing with the difference between 28 and 30 percent is over $500,000 in royalties paid per month.
My point was more about investor pressure than how great Jon is, I'm not sure how much influence investors have over the company.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2014, 10:20 by tickstock »

Rinderart

« Reply #40 on: November 07, 2014, 11:21 »
0
- Image collection grew 44%; currently exceeds 44 million images and 2.1 million video clips

this is huge, how long they can sustain such a growth ? soon they will have 2-300 million pics on sale, how are we supposed to stand out or even to make steady sales there ? however, i'm sure most of the growth is in the top selling niches.

Mind boggling.  Every time I sell an image I think "someone picked that out of 40 million options".  How on earth did they find mine???

Always shocked also.

« Reply #41 on: November 07, 2014, 11:30 »
+7
"Mind boggling.  Every time I sell an image I think "someone picked that out of 40 million options".  How on earth did they find mine???"

I think that too, but I also sometimes look at the "what sold" thread, and think "someone picked that out of 40 million options".  How on earth did they pick that???" ;)


Hobostocker

    This user is banned.
« Reply #42 on: November 07, 2014, 11:36 »
+1
It's only a matter of time.

indeed.

they need us only as long as there's some serious competition, once they're a monopoly we'll be dumped like a sack of potatoes.

Hobostocker

    This user is banned.
« Reply #43 on: November 07, 2014, 11:41 »
0
As BT has already pointed out 'they' can't be "preparing the company for a sell-out" ... because 'they' already sold it in an IPO two years ago.

For all we know Apple or Google (or any other potential purchaser) could already have been buying SS, share by share, for a couple of years.

usually when they want to buy a public company they make an offer to the shareholders, these deals are always dodgy and behind doors.

however, it would be logical they sell to Adobe, but for whatever reason Adobe was never serious about stock,
i think they don't see it as a big money maker and selling stock is not part of their company culture.

« Reply #44 on: November 08, 2014, 14:33 »
0
Looks like they had a good quarter.  I wonder why they are down nearly 10% after the announcement.  Might be a good time to buy?

According to insidertrading.org two SSTK officers sold relatively large personal stakes on 03/11. i.e. just before the reporting.

« Reply #45 on: November 08, 2014, 23:24 »
0
I can bet that in 2/3 of the times they used the 'New files' filter. It will not get any better, especially for people like me who missed the last six to ten years.

sure but ultimately this factor alone WILL kill the microstock model because they won't be able to keep the promise of selling cheap but selling many times, you'll barely sell only once and for half a dollar, thus making it impossible to sustain the production costs.

i'm the first saying in stock you need a big portfolio but once the leading agency is doubling or tripling the size of its whole archive every year you just can't stay afloat, sooner or later your portfolio will be irrilevant, a drop in the ocean.

They have been able to double the size of the archive solely because IS failed to compete and so many small contributors came here to brag about their outrageous and never ending sales at SS.

Once all the IS exclusives have cut and run the growth at SS will stall. The will have a hard time maintaining current rates via new contributors generated by skill feed etc.


« Reply #46 on: November 08, 2014, 23:33 »
0
The price is set by the market and that's what they value it at.


they've good reasons to market SS so high but it won't last forever, SS is not a tech/media company that is launching new product every year or that is doing M&As, all they're doing now is preparing the company for a sell out and yes the most obvious candidates for this are companies like apple/MS/google/adobe.


As BT has already pointed out 'they' can't be "preparing the company for a sell-out" ... because 'they' already sold it in an IPO two years ago.

For all we know Apple or Google (or any other potential purchaser) could already have been buying SS, share by share, for a couple of years.


http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/sstk/institutional-holdings

« Reply #47 on: November 09, 2014, 02:00 »
+2
in the past it made sense to have a few million images on sale, but now ? every possible subject and location and concept has been shot to death from any possible perspective.

Actually, it hasn't. I shot Circassian chicken this week, which is a classic Ottoman dish, and SS did not have a single picture of it before that (though it did have something resembling a waldorf salad that was mislabelled as Circassian chicken, presumably because there was a walnut present).

Incidentally, it is interesting to see how poor the quality of food pictures on a google search is if microstockers haven't got stuck into the subject.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2014, 02:03 by BaldricksTrousers »

PZF

« Reply #48 on: November 09, 2014, 03:21 »
+1
But the issue is how many people WANT a picture of Circassian chicken etc. When we get into really tiny niches, the game has to be well nigh over. I could do pics of all the local variations of biscuits in Italy - can't imagine selling (m)any....
PS I have no idea what Circassian chicken is except it invoves walnuts (!) and maybe it is an extremely popular thing....somewhere....

« Reply #49 on: November 09, 2014, 04:18 »
+2
It's quite popular in the Middle East as part of a meze.  It doesn't matter if it is a tiny niche that only has 20 buyers a year if you are the only one with pictures of it. It's no different from shooting something that sells 20 million licenses a year, if evry picture of yours has a million competitors. In fact, it's better, because my image is always going to be on the first page of the search, if I shoot Girl With Headphones I probably won't be in the first 40 pages.
It's shredded chicken in a walnut, bread, stock, onion and spice sauce drizzled with a mix of walnut oil and paprika. It's surprisingly nice, actually.


 

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