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Author Topic: Who else, besides Getty, is going to survive this recession?  (Read 13958 times)

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« on: January 26, 2010, 16:16 »
0
Maybe it's just winter depression but I got a feeling that soon we will hear some not so exciting news.


« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2010, 16:35 »
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I bet all the major agencies are doing just fine.  We've all heard the anecdotal evidence that when budgets are tightened, people who need art will turn to inexpensive sources like microstock to stretch their dollars further.  Some contributors might have a sense that sales for the agencies are down across the board, but keep in mind that the red arrows to the right are votes from individual contributors.  It may just be that the increase in uploads to the agencies is outpacing the increase in sales at the agencies, which is certainly not an indicator of their financial health.  The pie may still be growing while your own slice of it is shrinking due to increased competition.  I think the big boys are by and large doing well, but it's the small players (such as Crestock) that could fold any time.

vonkara

« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2010, 17:23 »
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There's no one who lost their home in Europe, neither in Canada, or Asia in general. Designers who use microstock are from everywhere in the world. Agencies that didn't survived, did it mainly because they do nothing except having a website IMO.

Following every big agency moves and sleeping while they don't move end to this. They can also do bad moves that end to nothing, like StockXpert with photos.com and DT with the questionable Myspace "card program??"

lisafx

« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2010, 18:24 »
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Actually, the time we should have seen the worst lowdown was 2009.  I think we are pulling out of this.  Slower than I would like, but things are improving.

I heard on the news today that Great Britain is officially out of recession and only has 7% unemployment.  Good for them!  Hope the US follows suit shortly :)

RT


« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2010, 18:47 »
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I heard on the news today that Great Britain is officially out of recession and only has 7% unemployment.  Good for them!  Hope the US follows suit shortly :)

You're right they did say that on the news today, but having watched a couple of in depth programmes with financial experts it would appear as normal it's not as good as those feeding the news channels would want us all to believe, the service sector showed a 0.1% increase over the previous quarter, what they haven't shouted much about is that the city was expecting a 0.6% increase and not forgetting that the recession was caused by a 4.8% drop in early 2009. So a simple way to look at it is take away 0.1% from 4.8% and we in the UK are still quite a way from rolling in clover.

We're due an election in May, I'd imagine there's going to be a few more happy announcements to come in the near future!

« Reply #5 on: January 26, 2010, 18:51 »
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The Microstock Poll Results (to the right) lag by one month.  In other words, the latest results are for last month (December).  December is usually the slowest month out of the year (because of the Christmas holidays).

I also agree with the remark that microstock (in general) is doing much better since the recession started, since they are the cheapest option available.

IS has stated "The good news is: there's lots of good news. We managed to grow significantly in the worst possible economic times. We now sell three times as many files as we did back in 2006. That's pretty amazing. What's even more amazing is the average number of downloads per contributor has also risen significantly since 2006. Thats a tough feat considering how quickly the collection has grown. Volumes are so high now we can tell in our hourly reports when New York goes for lunch or when theres a sandstorm in Sydney." (http://www.istockphoto.com/forum_messages.php?threadid=151691&page=1)

An email from FT stated "2009 has been an amazing year for all of us - through aggressive marketing and promotion efforts, we were able to more than double photographer payouts!"

A statement from Achilles of DT at the beginning of the month stated "Overall, the number of downloads is highest ever. There is no better parameter to track contributors' revenue than downloads." (http://www.microstockgroup.com/dreamstime-com/dt-in-trouble/50/)

lisafx

« Reply #6 on: January 26, 2010, 18:59 »
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I heard on the news today that Great Britain is officially out of recession and only has 7% unemployment.  Good for them!  Hope the US follows suit shortly :)

You're right they did say that on the news today, but having watched a couple of in depth programmes with financial experts it would appear as normal it's not as good as those feeding the news channels would want us all to believe, the service sector showed a 0.1% increase over the previous quarter, what they haven't shouted much about is that the city was expecting a 0.6% increase and not forgetting that the recession was caused by a 4.8% drop in early 2009. So a simple way to look at it is take away 0.1% from 4.8% and we in the UK are still quite a way from rolling in clover.

We're due an election in May, I'd imagine there's going to be a few more happy announcements to come in the near future!

Sorry (but not especially shocked) to learn it isn't as rosy as portrayed in the news.  I was hoping some country in the western world was getting it right.

« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2010, 19:14 »
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being a global economy, majority of investors portfolio does not consist of local investment. a viable investment consists of asian, US, europe, ..etc.. world .
metal, energy, commodities,etc... rise and fall in tandem.
when the market crash, there is a ripple effect even though it may appear that only US affluence and over extending their borrowing beyond their mean to hedge in the market . but really, a company in US is not as US owned as many non-investors think they are.
 As the saying goes several decades ago, Japan may have lost the war, but they won the battle and own USA. This is not comedy. Most US business that top Forbes are not US owned. 
And soon, when the Asian bubble burst, we will see another ripple effect.
Don't celebrate just yet. China's new millionaires are created only via their borrowing power, as once USA did.
In the last crash during the Yuppies generation, USA wealth  was actually financed by borrowing money. When the correction came, many of these properties were foreclosed and the banks were the ultimate losers.
Most of the wealthy did not have a net profit in their balance sheet nor did they own equity. They were always borrowing beyond their means.

This time, China and other parts of Asia has follow suit trying to be as affluent as their once super wealthy US "idols".

No, the recovery is far from being anything near.

Canada?
and for those who think that Canada was immuned from the markets crash in USA, check out CARP and Zoomer magazine. Your canadian seniors and those reaching retirement are hurting more than they like to admit.
Your BOC may paint a happy scenario, that only so as not to cause another correction in TSX. Don't fool yourself. Ask an investor or even those who hold RPP or other private pension plan. They are not snowbirds anymore for a good reason.  Check out those working in the departmental stores. Their work hours after festive seasons did not just get cut to almost nothing for the sake of giving them a rest. Certain dept stores was making money because the seniors were spending lots of money then. They don't do that as much after the correction.

The current markets only recovered very little. In fact the TSX has not even come close to where it was. It only rose to 12K,  and has never shown signs of even coming anything close to  the last high of 15K . not even close.. it hit 13k once or twice, a few weeks back, but  it is now way back close to 11K .

 People panic and took profits each time the TSX rose a little.  They don't even have the ability to wait for it to reach the past high of 15K. They don't have the ability to wait it out.
 You don't do that if your portfolio was "immuned" . You cash in and took profit and claim a loss because you no longer have borrowing clout with a drastically reduced portfolio. If your canuck investors were not hurt, they would have been able to wait till at least 15K. But we don't see any signs of such movement.
Your  " immuned " investors are grabbing whatever they can , because their piggy bank is broken. 
If you think it's bull, ask your bank manager or investment advisor.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2010, 19:41 by PERSEUS »

donding

  • Think before you speak
« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2010, 21:27 »
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Perseus....if that isn't a rambling statement I don't know what is....we all are effected by what is going on in the world...I don't need to ask my banker

jbarber873

« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2010, 22:27 »
0
My point of view is that there are 2 things going on at once. The first is cyclical- the economy goes up and down in cycles of prosperity and recession. I've been a photographer since the late 70's, and there are always good years and bad years. The commercial photography business tends to go into recession before the rest of the economy, and comes out ahead of it. So right now we are still feeling the effects of the recession. (BTW, most economists will tell you that the recession in the US ended last summer. It's purely a technical measure. Most of us would beg to disagree...)
The other factor is secular- that is, it's a long term permanent change in the business. That secular change is microstock, which in terms of it's penetration of the overall market has a very long way to go. One of the new features of microstock is the ability to see whats going on in real time, to share information among photographers on a worldwide basis. There has never been a market that allowed this in the past. Because of that, sometoimes it's easy to get caught up in the day to day details. But take heart, melastmohican, you are on the right side of history. This business has a great future, and it won't be owned by getty. They will be a player, no doubt, but Shutterstock, Dreamstime, yes, even Fotolia, are assured a place at the table. Some of the smaller players may consolidate, get bought or fade away ( see crestock) , but the pie is getting bigger every day. Ironically, the recession has accelerated this change, as buyers are forced by budgets to go to less expensive alternatives. As one of my long time assignment clients told me the other day, " i can't remember the last time i commissioned a photo shoot. It's all RF and microstock now".
It may look bad right now, but if I were just starting out, this is where I would be. It's where the action is.
And spring is right around the corner!

« Reply #10 on: January 27, 2010, 00:06 »
0
Perseus....if that isn't a rambling statement I don't know what is....we all are effected by what is going on in the world...I don't need to ask my banker


 dongding whatever,

if you like to read something I did not compose , here are 3 Non- Rambling
sites for you to take your blindfold off.

I wish I could say I composed these rambles, but unfortunately I cannot take the credit for them.


http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/



http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0208/debt-recession-america-wyoming-california-debt-weight-scorecard.html?partner=relatedstoriesbox

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0208/debt-recession-worldwide-finances-global-debt-bomb.html



But of course, you're still quite entitled to think everything is still American Apple Pie happy howdie doodie .
« Last Edit: January 27, 2010, 00:46 by PERSEUS »

« Reply #11 on: January 27, 2010, 02:26 »
0
I heard on the news today that Great Britain is officially out of recession and only has 7% unemployment.  Good for them!  Hope the US follows suit shortly :)

You're right they did say that on the news today, but having watched a couple of in depth programmes with financial experts it would appear as normal it's not as good as those feeding the news channels would want us all to believe, the service sector showed a 0.1% increase over the previous quarter, what they haven't shouted much about is that the city was expecting a 0.6% increase and not forgetting that the recession was caused by a 4.8% drop in early 2009. So a simple way to look at it is take away 0.1% from 4.8% and we in the UK are still quite a way from rolling in clover.

We're due an election in May, I'd imagine there's going to be a few more happy announcements to come in the near future!

Sorry (but not especially shocked) to learn it isn't as rosy as portrayed in the news.  I was hoping some country in the western world was getting it right.


i just wish the so called experts on tv would shut up here in the UK they talked us into a recession every time the bbc expert came on tv the stock market collasped we are coming out of it ,they are now being negative again for f***k sake lets be positive and get on with it  they are so doom and gloom .

« Reply #12 on: January 27, 2010, 03:50 »
0
"chasmcn" is right. The stock market in the UK ran around like babies with wet nappies at every announcement on the news, mainly because the big league investors were sweating about losing a few mil off their billion dollar fortunes. It's the little people in small/medium sized companies who are upbeat about the next quarter, and good luck to them.

I prefer to look on the positive side - but reckon some of the new sites/low earners will go.

 

ap

« Reply #13 on: January 27, 2010, 04:01 »
0
My point of view is that there are 2 things going on at once. The first is cyclical- the economy goes up and down in cycles of prosperity and recession. I've been a photographer since the late 70's, and there are always good years and bad years. The commercial photography business tends to go into recession before the rest of the economy, and comes out ahead of it. So right now we are still feeling the effects of the recession. (BTW, most economists will tell you that the recession in the US ended last summer. It's purely a technical measure. Most of us would beg to disagree...)
The other factor is secular- that is, it's a long term permanent change in the business. That secular change is microstock, which in terms of it's penetration of the overall market has a very long way to go. One of the new features of microstock is the ability to see whats going on in real time, to share information among photographers on a worldwide basis. There has never been a market that allowed this in the past. Because of that, sometoimes it's easy to get caught up in the day to day details. But take heart, melastmohican, you are on the right side of history. This business has a great future, and it won't be owned by getty. They will be a player, no doubt, but Shutterstock, Dreamstime, yes, even Fotolia, are assured a place at the table. Some of the smaller players may consolidate, get bought or fade away ( see crestock) , but the pie is getting bigger every day. Ironically, the recession has accelerated this change, as buyers are forced by budgets to go to less expensive alternatives. As one of my long time assignment clients told me the other day, " i can't remember the last time i commissioned a photo shoot. It's all RF and microstock now".
It may look bad right now, but if I were just starting out, this is where I would be. It's where the action is.
And spring is right around the corner!

wow, quite perspicacious for a first post. interesting for someone who's been through it all. in any case, hope you're right since i just started out... :)

« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2010, 08:26 »
0
i just wish the so called experts on tv would shut up here in the UK they talked us into a recession every time the bbc expert came on tv the stock market collasped we are coming out of it ,they are now being negative again for f***k sake lets be positive and get on with it  they are so doom and gloom .

Talk about 'shooting the messenger' ....

The BBC didn't 'talk us into a recession' at all, they simply reported the facts. The recession occurred because of absurd borrowing, lending and gambling by the banks in a ridiculously unregulated system.

It is laughable that the BBC's reporter Robert Peston is still blamed by some (idiots) for the collapse of Northern Rock. NR collapsed because it fuelled its rapid expansion by borrowing short to fund lending long __ a practice known to be a recipe for disaster for centuries. They inevitably collapsed when the supply of new money dried up, not because of the BBC.

« Reply #15 on: January 27, 2010, 08:54 »
0
Quote
i just wish the so called experts on tv would shut up here in the UK

I wish they would shut up here in the US too. I pretty much think the media contributes to the gloom and doom. It's a constant barrage of negativity.

Quote
The BBC didn't 'talk us into a recession' at all, they simply reported the facts.

I don't know about the BBC, but the news stations here in the US are pretty biased. The "facts" get turned whichever way works the best for them.

But enough about politics from me. Back to the OPs original question. Whoever had a sound business plan, saved and/or re-invested in their company instead of blowing money on fancy cars and summer homes and treated their employees, contributors and buyers with respect will be the ones that survive. IMHO.

« Reply #16 on: January 27, 2010, 08:59 »
0
i just wish the so called experts on tv would shut up here in the UK they talked us into a recession every time the bbc expert came on tv the stock market collasped we are coming out of it ,they are now being negative again for f***k sake lets be positive and get on with it  they are so doom and gloom .


Talk about 'shooting the messenger' ....

The BBC didn't 'talk us into a recession' at all, they simply reported the facts. The recession occurred because of absurd borrowing, lending and gambling by the banks in a ridiculously unregulated system.

It is laughable that the BBC's reporter Robert Peston is still blamed by some (idiots) for the collapse of Northern Rock. NR collapsed because it fuelled its rapid expansion by borrowing short to fund lending long __ a practice known to be a recipe for disaster for centuries. They inevitably collapsed when the supply of new money dried up, not because of the BBC.



well said gostwyck.
like donding , most ppl get their pulse of the economy on 2 mins soundbites on BBC, and CBC,etc.
and they wonder why their business had dried up.

For those others like donding who think there is a recovery already in place.
... "wow, the worst market correction since the great depression, and suddenly we have instant recovery".  Like everything in the mentality of fast food, we also now have an instant recovery, huh..
lmaorof

btw, collectively to further response to all those who think there is no longer a recession,
read this quote from CARP and Zoomer magazine,  after the Canadian woke up to more news of their new harmonized sales tax...
pg 98 ZoomerMag.com    THE HST . WERE WE CONSULTED ? nO ? written by Susan Eng
... Older Canadians have watched their retirement dreams vanish along with their savings un this market crisis

pg 99 ... CARP CALLS ON PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT
... They watch thousands of Nortel pensioners protesting on Parliament Hill... all to no avail...

Don't just take my ramble ... read it yourself,

twitter.com/zoomermag
facebook.com/zoomermedia

Better still, email or chat with the seniors to let them all know you think the recession is over.
lol...
dream on ppl, stop getting your update on the economy from the supermarket tabloids,
talk to the people who actually lost their pension savings ...

and stop smoking those bad weeds left over from your woodstock haze.. :D




jbarber873

« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2010, 09:04 »
0

wow, quite perspicacious for a first post. interesting for someone who's been through it all. in any case, hope you're right since i just started out... :)
[/quote]

well, i not sure if i want to be accused of being perspicacious, but I will say the 99% of the photographers, assistants, stylists and film processing labs that started out with me in 1977 are gone. Aside from not knowing how to do anything else, I have always tried to get out ahead of where things are going. I will admit to coming to microstock later than most of the people here, but i guarantee that I will make it work. Just because one company is dominant right now, technology has a way of rolling right over the biggest player. The biggest player is just the biggest target. Im my opinion, of course. Check back with me in 5 years.

donding

  • Think before you speak
« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2010, 10:07 »
0
Perseus....if that isn't a rambling statement I don't know what is....we all are effected by what is going on in the world...I don't need to ask my banker


 dongding whatever,

if you like to read something I did not compose , here are 3 Non- Rambling
sites for you to take your blindfold off.

I wish I could say I composed these rambles, but unfortunately I cannot take the credit for them.


http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/



http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0208/debt-recession-america-wyoming-california-debt-weight-scorecard.html?partner=relatedstoriesbox

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0208/debt-recession-worldwide-finances-global-debt-bomb.html



But of course, you're still quite entitled to think everything is still American Apple Pie happy howdie doodie .
PERSEUS....did I say I thought the recession was over?? No I said I dont need to ask my banker to know the condition of this economy. The recession is not over by any means, I dont need the news cast telling me it is over to know that it is not. We lost our house...we lost our business of 17 years...we went BANKRUPT because of this economy. We do not live the American dream of the American Pie as you put it. We live from paycheck to paycheck. If you think that is the American Pie then you need to take a good look at how this has affected everyone. Next time think before you say.

lagereek

« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2010, 10:26 »
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Yeah well,  Im not too interested in the global economy anymore. Everything is just fine, as long as the agencies were working with:

STOP SCREWING AROUND WITH THEIR BLOODY SEARCH ENGINES !!!!!!  adding insult to injury to the global economy.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2010, 10:30 by lagereek »

lisafx

« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2010, 11:51 »
0

I wish they would shut up here in the US too. I pretty much think the media contributes to the gloom and doom. It's a constant barrage of negativity.

I don't know about the BBC, but the news stations here in the US are pretty biased. The "facts" get turned whichever way works the best for them.


^^Ding, ding, ding!!  You have it exactly right Cathy.

For an example, the Tampa Tribune sent a reporter and a photographer to spend an entire day observing and photographing my husband's vocational training class and interviewing the apprentice electricians he teaches.   It was part of a big feature they are doing on the state of the economy.

All the questions the guy asked were leading, trying to get the electricians to say there is no work for them and how depressed they are about the state of the economy.  

Instead the apprentices were talking about the fact that they mostly all are working on electrical jobs, are making good money, and are extremely optimistic about the training they are getting and the future career prospects it is giving them.  

The story ran in the Saturday edition of the paper.   My husband's class and everything they said was COMPLETELY omitted from the story.  It wasn't even mentioned, as if the guy had never even been there.  

Instead, only the doom and gloom, negative portrayals from other people in other industries were included.  There was no balance or hope presented in the article at all.  

As cynical as I am, I was still quite surprised that this article was so nakedly biased.  It will make me much more skeptical about believing what I read, even in a so-called objective newspaper.

lagereek

« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2010, 12:12 »
0
Thats it Lisa!

Thats why its pointles even caring about it. Doom and gloom, thats what you get, even the British Financial-Times spreads nothing but disaster.
Its like listening to these guys preaching the end is coming, the destruction is near and its all because of car-exhausts pipes, etc.

Youre better off reading Donald Duck.

best.  Chris

« Reply #22 on: January 27, 2010, 12:20 »
0
Quote
Youre better off reading Donald Duck

Yeah, right about now I much prefer Disneyland than real life.

« Reply #23 on: January 27, 2010, 12:31 »
0
My husband's class and everything they said was COMPLETELY omitted from the story.  It wasn't even mentioned, as if the guy had never even been there.  
Well, it takes time to rewrite your article to match reality. That's why sports writers don't like close games.  :D

As far as the original post, 2009 was a rough year for a lot of people. I had a lot of friends that were let go from long time jobs. I count myself lucky that my freelancee work was steady and microstock was a constant earner. My piece of the microstock pie actually grew nicely last year. So if this is microstock in a recession, I'd love to see it when it comes out of it.

« Reply #24 on: January 28, 2010, 21:40 »
0
Hi All,

On the Macro side. Returns right now are much higher for us through our third party agencies that are mass distributed than our direct sales at Getty. These have hit a new low over the past three months. Motion is selling well for what little we have up but the stills there that are exclusive to Getty are tanking so bad it is off the charts, especially RF. Spend wisely :)

Hope this helps,
Jonathan


 

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