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Messages - hatman12

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1101
General - Top Sites / Re: Graph comments please
« on: April 26, 2007, 03:26 »
Quite right sharpshot, which is why I warn that my analysis could easily be a complete load of bollocks.  The key to chart analysis is knowing that most of the time it doesn't work.



1102
Well done leaf - $125 for a sale is good money.

1103
General - Top Sites / Re: Graph comments please
« on: April 25, 2007, 17:20 »
Well berryspun IF the trend follows the classic economic analysis, turnover or activity should drop to at least 61.8% of previous peak levels, and possibly as far as 50%.  We are seeing that already.

As with any recession, people will have to work twice as hard just to stand still; in the case of microstock that might mean having twice as many images just to keep the same income.

Many here are already seeing that happen.

The worst point of the cycle should be the first few months of next year, which will be worse than the first few months of this year.  But nothing goes in a straight line and activity will probably pick up towards the autumn and Christmas, only to plunge to lower levels afterwards.

Of course those who can stand the strain of this slowdown and continue to shoot and upload will reap the benefits when the next upwards cycle begins perhaps half way through 2008.  But it will get much worse before then.

I imagine those most likely to suffer will actually be the leading lights of the industry; those who have images with 500, 1,000 or even 3,000 downloads might find that those images are the first to fall off the tree.

But these thoughts might be complete rubbish of course.....

1104
General - Top Sites / Re: Graph comments please
« on: April 25, 2007, 15:52 »
Oh, I should have added that any form of analysis of those trend charts has a good 50/50 chance of being a load of bollocks of course........

1105
Adobe Stock / Re: Can this really be true..?
« on: April 25, 2007, 15:44 »
Well that's good news - if it is possible to achieve 10 downloads per day at FT then that is a target worth aiming for.

Thansk for all your reassurances on this thread everyone.

1106
General - Top Sites / Re: Graph comments please
« on: April 25, 2007, 15:40 »
I spent a lot of time looking at the Alexa charts after Michael mentioned them a few days ago.  Fascinating charts.

It is useful to compare the progress of individual agencies against each other; the biggest trend I noticed was that StockXpert appears to be making good progress and now appears to be ahead of FT (in terms of page view trends).  Perhaps those here who contribute to both StockXpert and FT could make some observations.

Saturation is a good word.  If these were financial markets or economic cycles charts I would interpret them as follows:

Each cycle within larger cycles tends to have five distinct phases (up, down, up, down, up) and it is very likely that the big burst of activity at the end of the last year was the final UP in that five phase sequence.  If so, we have entered the DOWN phase of a larger cycle.  The first down phase in a five phase sequence often lasts a Fibonacci ratio 38.2% of the previous cycle; if that cycle was 4.7 years then the down phase should be about 1.7 years.

Very likely that the market has reached a first saturation point; perhaps the flow of images has exceeded the flow of buyers, or agency competition is changing the market, or perhaps the buyers in the first cycle now have enough images to keep them going for a while.

If this analysis is correct, we should expect sales to remain at present lower levels for another year or so (broadly speaking) before the down phase ends and we enter the next five phase upwards cycle.


1107
Adobe Stock / Re: Can this really be true..?
« on: April 25, 2007, 06:44 »
Well, I am content to rely on the views of those who contribute to this board.

Sharpshot and fotographer, if you are able to obtain that number of downloads then I'll trust your judgement and stay with it.

1108
Adobe Stock / Re: Can this really be true..?
« on: April 24, 2007, 22:06 »
Do you work for FT Ian? (serious question)

1109
Adobe Stock / Re: Can this really be true..?
« on: April 24, 2007, 20:43 »
Out of interest I clicked on the 'top sales today' list and looked at some of the images; many had only one or two total downloads, but I was surprised to find that some of the images in that list have no downloads at all.  How an image can be a 'top sales today' image when it has had zero sales is beyond me, but there you are.

I am pleased I'm making sales at FT, but the company has a very dishonest feel about it, including the '400,000 photographers, designers etc' statement which is probably another misleading figure.

I reckon FT are selling no more than 100 images a day instead of the 10,000 announced in their last press release.

Would be nice if they would smarten things up a little; people aren't stupid and the buying community will be able to see straight through any misleading statements.  There is tremendous growth potential in microstock, but any business that tries to mislead its customers and suppliers will lose trust and fail.

1110
Adobe Stock / Re: Can this really be true..?
« on: April 24, 2007, 13:23 »
Well, based on the numbers in this thread, FT certainly aren't selling 10,000 images per day; in fact it might be only one tenth of that.

The problem is that once a business or businessman is prepared to mislead (3 million online images for instance) they get used to doing it and will mislead on other things as well.  One lie leads to another etc.

I recently looked at FT's forums and was astonished to see that any mention of sales and/or volume is banned, and this is listed in the 'rules' of the forums.  The controllers will immediately edit or delete any post that mentions sales, and also any post that mentions a competitor agency.

In my experience in life, if something is going well (lots of sales for instance) people want to shout about it, but if something is not going well they try to hide it, or start to tell lies.

Let's hope that all of these things are just early stage teething problems and that FT will start to become more honest and accurate.


1111
For me, last week at IS my $/DL was $0.49.

My overall total average is $0.73.

10 week running average is $0.64 so last week was below trend.

1112
Adobe Stock / Re: april sales?
« on: April 23, 2007, 22:10 »
And if the stastistics at Alexa are correct, page views at iStock have been falling off a cliff over the last week.

Fascinating.

1113
Adobe Stock / Re: april sales?
« on: April 23, 2007, 21:54 »
Hmm... never encountered Alexa before.  What a fascinating site.  Thanks for mentioning it Michael.

Yes, page views for the microstocks have been falling.

Comparing some of the micros, it appears that StockXpert is now getting more page views than FT!

1114
General - Top Sites / Re: How many images
« on: April 23, 2007, 18:15 »
Well I believe that in business one should play fair and at least not be misleading; 3 mill images 'online' implies 'for sale' and therefore appears to be deliberately misleading.

I think it would be appropriate for FT to actually state the number of images accepted and available for sale.  That would be the more professional approach.

1115
123RF / How's it going...?
« on: April 23, 2007, 17:15 »
How's it going for those who contribute to 123RF?

1116
General - Top Sites / Re: How many images
« on: April 23, 2007, 17:13 »
I am concerned about FT quoting that number.  It may of course be correct, but I think there are sufficient doubts to suggest that it isn't.

As a recent new contributor to FT I am actually quite pleased with sales progress.  But I feel uncomfortable all the same; its something to do with this massive headline number and the fact that their forums seem to be controlled and edited like something from Nazi Germany (I do not contribute to their forums).

It has a taste of 'dishonesty' about it and I am concerned about that.

Having said these things, I am pleased to be able to see the customers who buy, and with clients like BDO Stoy Hayward, FT are clearly making some progress into the professional market.

But of all the agencies, this is the only one where I feel I cannot trust them; I have been in business a long time, and at my age one gets a feel for honesty or untrustworthiness.

Let's hope that FT will make a leap forward and start to address these things.  They certainly won't attract a large number of volume photographers unless they do.

1117
Adobe Stock / Can this really be true..?
« on: April 23, 2007, 17:06 »
I only added FT to my list of agencies three or so weeks ago, encouraged by talk amongst the forum members here of an improvement in sales, exposure etc.

In my first three weeks I'm starting to generate sales, reaching a total of 25 downloads so far.  Early days, but progress.

In the first few days I commented on the 'ranking' numbers and asked for a few comments here.  As a complete newbie I was shown as position 13,500 with few images and hardly any downloads.

However now I appear to be at position 7800 with a total of 25 sales.  Can it really be the case that by selling 25 images I am already ahead of 6000 other contributing photographers?  Surely that cannot be right.  Can it?

I know that 20% of the contributors probably make 80% of the sales, but if these ranking numbers are correct it appears that FT must only have a very small number of photographers selling a decent number of images.

I am happy to be there as they appear to be able to sell my stuff and the trend is upwards, but clearly they have a long long way to go and need to eliminate some of these thousands of photographers with images that appear not to sell.

1118
Shutterstock.com / Re: 5c payrise but with conditions
« on: April 23, 2007, 16:58 »
Yes this makes sense - all the agencies have to do something to reward and retain the best and most prolific photographers; this is just a further example of trying to cut down on the huge numbers of occasional submitters and place an increased focus on those who actually generate the sales.

As with most businesses, 80% of the sales are probably generated by 20% of the contributors.  In microstock it might even be 90/10.

1119
Dreamstime.com / Re: Reversed sales this month
« on: April 23, 2007, 02:56 »
That's a good result - I recall you saying that you were generating some good income from SS litefeta.

1120
Adobe Stock / Re: april sales?
« on: April 23, 2007, 02:54 »
Yes, I have also been pleased with FT.

However, just to put things into perspective, I notice that Yuri Acurs now has the same images on IS as he has on FT.  His best selling image on FT has had sales of a total of about 170.  On IS that same image has sold 1300 times in the last three months!

Nonetheless I am pleased with FT, and DT also seems to be making some progress.  Both FT and DT need to bump up their marketing and promotional activities to take them into the next league.  FT has the best chance because it seems to be generating lots of customers from Europe and could try to become market leader there.

1121
Adobe Stock / Pricing...
« on: April 20, 2007, 02:27 »
I've only been on FT for three weeks so please excuse this newbie question:

Once an artist has achieved 100 sales they become a white something or other, then gradually move up the colour scale.  It seems that as one moves up the scale it is possible to specify higher prices for one's images.  For instance Yuri Acur charges 3 credits for a small image whereas I am only able to charge 1 credit.

Here's the question: once certain colour bands have been reached, can anartist specify a new price band for all his/her images automatically, or is it a question of going through each existing image and using the edit option to change the pricing?

1122
iStockPhoto.com / Re: New reviewer/standards at iStock?
« on: April 17, 2007, 13:33 »
Yes Sharply, I have noticed an increased level of strictness at IS over the past two or three weeks.

They appear to be increasing the priorities and flexibility for exclusives and becoming more strict for non exclusives.  I am not surprised at this.

BTW there is an interesting thread there which tables the differences in upload limits between exclusives and non; exclusives get 60 per week compared to 20 at bronze level.  A new exclusive comments on how his images are now accepted very quickly and how his downloads have increased massively since getting the exclusive tag.

Once again these things are not a surprise.

Over the next year or two I expect to see much more competition for exclusives at all agencies; after all, it isn't the number of images that will make them a success, it's having highest quality UNIQUE images that will be the key as competition hots up.

Prices and commissions should increase at a faster rate for exclusives.  It makes sense.

1123
Photoshop Discussion / Re: Making Sunbeams
« on: April 17, 2007, 13:25 »
Yes, leave the tree dark.

1124
General - Top Sites / Do multiple agencies damage sales...?
« on: April 16, 2007, 15:55 »
It might be early days for an observation like this (for me anyway); I started uploading to IS early in February and make what I thought was good progress.  I didn't bother with any other agencies except a few uploads to DT.  Sales at IS improved very micely and by the middle of March I was pleased with overall progress.  Then I decided to join SS.  Sales at SS took off sharply and I was mesmerised by the immediate positive result.

However my sales at IS peaked in exactly the same week that I joined SS.  Over the past four weeks the trend at IS has been down, but still very positive sales at SS.

Of course Easter is in the middle, perhaps wiping two weeks of proper statistics, but I jave a sneaking suspicion that somehow my sales at SS have damaged my progress at IS.

Perhaps I'm wrong and its all just coincidence.

Anyone else have any thoughts on this from their own experiences?

1125
Photoshop Discussion / Re: Oh boy oh boy....can't wait!
« on: April 15, 2007, 17:06 »
Well I'm using CS3 beta.  I like Bridge.  I also use Elements 4.

My view of Adobe products is that they are probably the worst designed software applications available, from the users point of view.  Adobe seem to be in the dark ages with difficult user interfaces, complete lack of easy right click options and a need to memorise a whole book of keyboard shortcuts.  And as for computer memory management, well the whole thing is a complete joke, all of their software gobbling up resources and exhibiting a complete disregard for efficiency.

Having said all of that, I enjoy CS3 despite the difficulties.  However, what PS has taught me is to concentrate on getting the best possible image out of the camera, removing the need for too much post processing.  As such I find Elements 4 meets my needs simply because my post processing requirements are fairly modest.  But even Elements 4 (a design completed two years ago and subject to many updates since) is woefully memory draining.

There are better designed software kits out there, but everyone wants to use PS because it is seen to be the professional's tool.

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