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Messages - Zero Talent

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576
Off Topic / Re: Message to all Russians in these forums
« on: March 02, 2022, 19:33 »
Another powerful message from the chess world champion Garry Kasparov, a true Russian patriot:

Putin's war on Ukraine has entered its next phase, one of destruction and slaughter of civilians. It is also a part of Putin's World War, a war on the civilized world of international law, democracy, and any threat to his power, which he declared long ago.

The free world's denial of this war and decades of appeasement allowed Putin to threaten and conquer abroad while turning Russia into a police state. The price to stop him has gone up every time he has advanced unchallenged. Ukrainians are paying that price in blood.

If Putin is not stopped now, not prevented from destroying Ukraine and committing genocide against its people, there will be a next time and it will be in NATO, with an unprecedented nuclear threat. Do not let Putin escalate again in a time and place of his choosing.
Everyone is quoting my 2015 book Winter Is Coming and saying I was right & "listen to Kasparov". But will you still listen when I say this will take sacrifice and risk? Not just wheat and gas prices, not just empty chalets and unemployed lobbyists. Easy is over.

Or will you say that I am irrational, blinded by hate, as I heard in 2015? I hope not. Putin must be stopped because the unthinkable is now the possible. The world has awoken, at long last, and many steps I recommended last week are happening. It's not enough.

My recommendations:

1. I cannot demand NATO attack Russian forces directly, but I can speak from history & knowledge of Putin. A dictator who has already crossed every line cannot be prevented from escalating with restraint. If he destroys Ukraine, he won't stop.

2. We are not trying to appeal to the murderer in his bunker in the Urals. The message is to those who carry out his orders. Will they? Do they all wish to die? Putin will escalate anyway if he is not stopped now. He will, as he always has before, & the price will be higher.

3. Send Russia to the technological stone age. No support, no parts, no services. Oil boycotts aren't necessary if oil tech is unavailable. The industry will grind to a halt. This means a war footing in sacrificing, retooling & increasing production to substitute. It's war.

4. It's always tragic that ordinary people suffer, but they are not being bombed in their homes like Ukrainians. Every element of Russian society that can pressure Putin must know they have to choose between him & everything else. Some will cling to him, but for how long?

5. Clear message to Russian generals that they will suffer annihilation if one inch of NATO is touched. Send UKR every weapon, including the jets that have been blocked, as if Putin cares about the difference. Stop guessing about his thoughts and do what is needed.

6. Every day Ukraine endures gives opportunity to communicate this catastrophe to the only people who can really stop Putin, the Russian people, from oligarchs to commanders to protestors. Let all in the power vertical know they will be treated as war criminals. They are.

7. Leave nothing in reserve. Speed is of the essence to stop payments and catch them and their assets before they hide. Threats like "he doesn't know what's coming" don't work if Putin doesn't believe you. Show him. And show Russians there is no way back with Putin. Never.

8. Root out the corrupt politicians, businessmen & dark money that corrupted a generation to turn a blind eye or serve authoritarian regimes. Follow the donations, payments, gifts, influence. Hold them accountable. Down with Putin & his appeasers, glory to Ukraine.


577
Off Topic / Re: Message to all Russians in these forums
« on: March 02, 2022, 17:40 »
More than 70% of Russians are approving Putin's actions.
His approval rate went up during the war preparations and now and I'm reading that it went further up after the invasion!
 :o

So I'm afraid that this sensitive appeal made by BelieveInStock doesn't mean too much, under these circumstances.
It will be seen as "fake news" and "western propaganda" by a large majority.

Although I expect that some who approved Putin's invasion, may be afraid to speak up, especially now, when they crackdown on dissent harder than before.

Statistic: Do you approve of the activities of Vladimir Putin as the president (prime minister) of Russia? | Statista" style="width: 100%; height: auto !important; max-width:500px;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic;


578
Off Topic / Re: where is inflation headed?
« on: March 02, 2022, 15:38 »
.

579
Off Topic / Re: where is inflation headed?
« on: March 02, 2022, 15:20 »

I bought my first house fifty years ago for 40 thousand guilders is 20 thousand euros. I am now buying a shed for that.  ;)
I know. That's because there was a lot of money "printing" business going on, during all those 50 years.

580
Off Topic / Re: where is inflation headed?
« on: March 02, 2022, 15:06 »
The reason doesn't matter. A country's inflation is tracked and reported. Even if that is, for example, 1%.
Inflation can also arise if a country borrows too much. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic
Before burglars stole my old coins, I had old German banknotes of over a million marks.

A country would rather have a small inflation than a deflation. High inflation not, of course.

Yes Thijs, borrowing followed by printing money to pay the debt.
This is also mentioned in the article you quoted:
The debt problem was exacerbated by printing money without any economic resources to back it

Printing money (all kinds) and the inflation it generates, is a hidden form of taxation.

So the reason doesn't matter, because there is no other reason. Everything else is just supply-demand fluctuation.
The two factors may overlap, like these days, but the total price increase is not only caused by inflation. Only a part (an important one) is.

But politicians like to blame someone else for the additional hidden tax required to pay their excessive expenses.

Inflation is inflation whatever the cause. Hot is hot. it could be because of the sun, but also because I ran really hard.  ;D
I know that these two causes are close to each other.
Our house prices are rising way too fast. One reason is that too little has been built. Another cause is that rich people, foreign companies buy them up to rent out, driving prices up even further. There are still a few causes. But it also causes inflation to us.

No really, Thijs. Inflation is not the same as price rise.
As mentioned before, only a global and sustained price rise is inflation.
When the price is rising during the summer on your beach hotel, that's because of supply-demand, not inflation.
So that price is hot, but it's not inflation hot. It will fall back during the cold winter.
It's not a sustained price rise.

And yes, the home prices are going up because of the billions of stimulus checks thrown to the market in 2020 and 2021.
That's the perfect example of inflationary "money printing".

If the home prices are rising because of shortages, that's not inflation, because the money needed to pay a higher price for a home, must be taken from something else. So the global prices are not going up if the money mass remains constant on the market.

581
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: March 02, 2022, 14:46 »
I am not restarting anything, Martha. It very much looks like you are.

That thread was full of childish spamming replies and insults. That's a fact.

I'm happy to see it locked by the admins.
That thread rightfully belongs to the Garbage Bin.



582
Off Topic / Re: where is inflation headed?
« on: March 02, 2022, 14:09 »
The reason doesn't matter. A country's inflation is tracked and reported. Even if that is, for example, 1%.
Inflation can also arise if a country borrows too much. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic
Before burglars stole my old coins, I had old German banknotes of over a million marks.

A country would rather have a small inflation than a deflation. High inflation not, of course.

Yes Thijs, borrowing followed by printing money to pay the debt.
This is also mentioned in the article you quoted:
The debt problem was exacerbated by printing money without any economic resources to back it

Printing money (all kinds) and the inflation it generates, is a hidden form of taxation.

So the reason doesn't matter, because there is no other reason. Everything else is just supply-demand fluctuation.
The two factors may overlap, like these days, but the total price increase is not only caused by inflation. Only a part (an important one) is.

But politicians like to blame someone else for the additional hidden tax required to pay their excessive expenses.

583
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: March 02, 2022, 09:22 »

In all my 9 years on this forum, I don't recall a time when Leaf has pulled an entire thread down just because a couple of participants got into a disagreement. So this case was odd.

I suspect somebody other than Leaf decided to get rid of the thread, for whatever reason.

I attached the content of the Garbage Bin including its more recent than 9 years, Covid conspiracies locked thread, where participants also crossed the common sense and decency lines. The admins didn't get rid of it. It's still accessible.

A locked thread (see that icon) full of childish spamming replies rightfully belongs there too.

584
Off Topic / Re: where is inflation headed?
« on: March 02, 2022, 08:11 »
This not true at all. Inflation is the decline of the purchasing power of a currency for any reason and is measured most often by the increase of an average price level of a basket of selected goods. Thats all it is. It's cause is another matter.
Yes, you are right with one observation. Many who are commenting on inflation do not realise that inflation is referring to a sustained increase in the general price level (as distinct from normal fluctuations).

As I said, the labor shortage caused by the pandemic is temporary and we will recover from it. That's not inflation.
The surge of the oil price caused by the scarcity of Russian oil is temporary, therefore not inflation. Likewise, the price increase for rooms in beach resort hotels during the summer is temporary, therefore not inflation.

The economists' consensus is that inflation is caused by "the growth in the money supply, alongside increased velocity of money".
Besides, many have also "inflated" its meaning by using terms like "oil price inflation", "house price inflation", etc instead of just "price increase".

585
Off Topic / Re: where is inflation headed?
« on: March 01, 2022, 17:18 »
I would make the difference between inflation and the normal price rises, caused by high demand or resource scarcity.

When the oil price is rising because of high demand during an economic boom, that's not inflation. When the oil price is rising because of scarcity (e.g. less Russian oil), that's not inflation.
Even when the prices are rising more globally, because of workforce scarcity (e.g. during the pandemic), that's just normal fluctuation, not inflation.

Inflation happens when the governments are running out of money, and they have to cover their costs and commitments through one form or another of "money printing".
Inflation takes time to manifest itself. It takes time for the "new" money to be passed from the national bank to commercial banks, then to big companies, then to smaller companies and employees, and ultimately to prices. And maybe only after that to those who rely on inflation-adjusted incomes.

The higher an organization is in this inflation chain, the more it benefits, because they get their hands on the "new" money before the prices had time to catch up with the money surplus.

In the USA, both the Trump and Biden administrations "printed" money like there was no end. Trump even more than Biden (so far). So what we see now is the consequence of that governmental spending spree, e.g. "real" inflation, on top of normal higher prices driven by scarcity of specific products and productive workforce.

We may recover from the "normal" component, but the money surplus is here to stay.

586
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: March 01, 2022, 15:29 »

Oh no. Let's not talk about Corona now.

Yep! In case some didn't realize, there are two Corona threads in the Garbage Bin, already.
Plenty of "info" there! No need to repeat it here.

587
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: March 01, 2022, 14:20 »
That thread has been rightfully locked by the admins.
No edits nor replies are possible anymore.

Given the serious quality decay it suffered, it rightfully belongs to the Garbage Bin, where it can still be consulted, by anyone interested.

It would be nice if this thread lives on for a while Zero.

Yes, I'd like this very much.
Ukraine's tragedy is heartbreaking, and people should be able to hear varied opinions, not just what they get from their news bubble.

Maybe we should change its title and move it to the off-topic section.


588
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: March 01, 2022, 14:11 »
That thread has been rightfully locked by the admins.
No edits nor replies are possible anymore.

Given the serious quality decay it suffered, it rightfully belongs to the Garbage Bin, where it can still be consulted, by anyone interested.

590
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: February 28, 2022, 20:53 »
Yes, there are even claims that Stalin died not from a stroke but poisoned, when he was found paralysed and vomiting blood.
In that scenario, the main suspect is Tito. But there is no hard evidence to prove this hypothesis.

Anyway, one can't deny that that 50-50% written next to Yugoslavia was rather close to the reality on the ground.

Yes, Yugoslavia was a communist country, but yugoslavs were free to travel in the west, could own small companies, and overall Yugoslavia had the highest standard of living among communist countries (maybe together with East Germany).

Besides:
"United States supported Yugoslavias efforts in 1949 to gain a seat on the prestigious Security Council at the United Nations. In 1951, President Truman asked Congress to provide economic and military assistance to Yugoslavia. This aid was granted."

This looks very much like the "other" 50%.


Somehow, those percentages turned out to be rather close to reality on all cases, except for Hungary. But that's because of the 1956 Russian invasion.

591
Off Topic / Re: Russian photographers should be banned!
« on: February 28, 2022, 20:11 »

russia is 57th in per capita GDP well behind any other major industrial country (US is 13th), oligarchs control almost as much as the entire Russian GDP (even the massive inequality of the US 1% 'only' accounts for 40% of US GDP)

Here is an updated, 2022 list:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/gdp-per-capita-by-country

The USA is 7th, Russia is 53rd and there are 8 East European countries ahead of Russia. All of them EU and NATO members.
It shouldn't be a surprise that security and good trade relations are prerequisites for prosperity.

592
Off Topic / Re: Russian photographers should be banned!
« on: February 28, 2022, 17:27 »
I would like to express a few thoughts. In doing so, I would like to try to put myself in the minds of everyone involved.

NATO has made many mistakes. And I can understand to a certain extent that Russia feels backed into a corner. The West must work on itself! A policy that works on de-escalation would be very important.

But I'm not sure that the NATO issue is really what Putin is most concerned about. No one can see inside him.

As I said, NATO is not faultless. But Ukraine has given up all nuclear weapons in exchange for treaty assurances of state sovereignty and integrity.

Today Ukraine is a country without nuclear weapons - as agreed. But already in 2014 the integrity was violated by annexing Crimea. And after that, other territories.

What I can't understand - maybe because I lack some background knowledge and some emotional and cultural roots:

Russia has "only" 144 million inhabitants and gigantic amounts of mineral resources and raw materials. It is one of the most resource-rich countries on earth - with a rather small population compared to other resource-rich countries. Nevertheless, a large part of the Russian population does not exactly live in prosperity. Many are poor.

Why is it not possible to make 144 million people content and happy with these immense mineral resources? Why do people want to return to the "old greatness" and put world peace at risk? And risk that an endless number of states will turn against Russia? That precisely those that are not doing well economically will have even more problems? That there will be domestic unrest? Without economic necessity!

I do not understand it!

You are right, Wilm, with a small comment.
Putin is only using NATO's expansion as a "casus belli", to justify his Greater Russia ambitions, fueled by Russian irredentism.

It was not NATO expanding. It was the free democratic will of many countries who suffered under the Russian boot, deciding and voting to join an alliance able to guarantee their integrity. Putin believes that he is entitled to dictate, what sovereign countries should do, while his propaganda is blaming NATO for the expansion.
NATO forced no country to join.

593
Off Topic / Re: Russian photographers should be banned!
« on: February 28, 2022, 16:18 »
I agreed with America that Europe put relatively little money into their defense

Thank you, Thijs. This is the reality.
America should stop being the world police, and Europe should assume more responsibilities in relation to its own safety.
Thanks for clarifying. This is important coming from you, especially since some unprepared folks felt offended when I said it!
👍

594
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: February 28, 2022, 14:45 »
Good point.

Let's continue the history lesson with the shameful "percentage agreement" when Churchill, the "war hero", sold in cold blood, the east of Europe to Stalin, a man who murdered millions on a national scale.

In case you can't read Churchill's handwriting:

Romania
 -Russia 90%
 -The others 10%
Greece
-Great Britain (in accord with USA) 90%
 -Russia 10% (he scratched "the Others" and replaced it with Russia)
Yugoslavia 50-50%
Hungary 50-50%
Bulgaria
 -Russia 75%
 -The others 25%"

The checkmark is Stalin's.

I have to admit that this is worse than leaving Ukraine on her own devices, in the fight against another Russian tyrant, but fundamentally it's similar to what we see today.

yes, this callous betrayal of eastern europe was matched in later years by the hypocritical west being shocked by Stalin's takeovers (while at the same time Stalin in a rare move did not send support to the communists in the Greek civil war)

then there was the joint UK-USSR invasion of neutral Iran in 1941 https://www.rferl.org/a/1058759.html

Correct!
The communist party in Romania was basically inexistent, with no more than 1000 members, while in Greece, the communists were a powerful force.
And yet, Stalin betrayed his Greek supporters, while Britain invaded Greece, (mind you after the so-called end of WWII) to crush the communists.

All in line with the infamous Churchill-Stalin "percentage agreement"!

595
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: February 28, 2022, 12:08 »
Good point.

Let's continue the history lesson with the shameful "percentage agreement" when Churchill, the "war hero", sold in cold blood, the east of Europe to Stalin, a man who murdered millions on a national scale.



In case you can't read Churchill's handwriting:

Romania
 -Russia 90%
 -The others 10%
Greece
-Great Britain (in accord with USA) 90%
 -Russia 10% (he scratched "the Others" and replaced it with Russia)
Yugoslavia 50-50%
Hungary 50-50%
Bulgaria
 -Russia 75%
 -The others 25%"

The checkmark is Stalin's.

I have to admit that this is worse than leaving Ukraine on her own devices, in the fight with another Russian tyrant, but fundamentally it's similar to what we see today.


You cannot compare now to 80 years ago. that is simply bonkers, in fact that is what Putin is doing now and he is as mad as a box of frogs.

Lets just put this in perspective, times change and the world and societies were very different 80+ years ago, you miss all the nuance, pressures and the pragmatic decisions that were made for reasons at the time.

A wise man once said: "Those Who Do Not Learn History Are Doomed To Repeat It"

... and "strangely", history repeats itself. :(

Edit: My dear Martha, I know you can produce, some on-topic, decent arguments, instead of cheap ad-hominem and sexist attacks. I know you can do better!
Love  :-*

Well if you want a history lesson the second world war was merely the postponed continuation of the first world war.

Lets face it who at the end of the second world war was going to argue with Josef Stalin?

Yes, WWII is a continuation of WWI, and WWI is a consequence of older European conflicts.

Who was going to argue with Stalin? Not Churchill, the "hero", obviously!

The burning question is, who is going to argue with Putin, today, once he takes over Ukraine and more.

Anyway, the real history should acknowledge that WWII only ended in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell, and when the consequences of all those shameful WWII agreements (like Churchill's percentage agreement) were corrected (to a large extent).

And this makes today's conflict a continuation of WWII because Russia doesn't like these corrections.

History IS repeating itself.

596
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: February 28, 2022, 11:52 »
Good point.

Let's continue the history lesson with the shameful "percentage agreement" when Churchill, the "war hero", sold in cold blood, the east of Europe to Stalin, a man who murdered millions on a national scale.



In case you can't read Churchill's handwriting:

Romania
 -Russia 90%
 -The others 10%
Greece
-Great Britain (in accord with USA) 90%
 -Russia 10% (he scratched "the Others" and replaced it with Russia)
Yugoslavia 50-50%
Hungary 50-50%
Bulgaria
 -Russia 75%
 -The others 25%"

The checkmark is Stalin's.

I have to admit that this is worse than leaving Ukraine on her own devices, in the fight with another Russian tyrant, but fundamentally it's similar to what we see today.


You cannot compare now to 80 years ago. that is simply bonkers, in fact that is what Putin is doing now and he is as mad as a box of frogs.

Lets just put this in perspective, times change and the world and societies were very different 80+ years ago, you miss all the nuance, pressures and the pragmatic decisions that were made for reasons at the time.

A wise man once said: "Those Who Do Not Learn History Are Doomed To Repeat It"

... and "strangely", history repeats itself. :(

Edit: My dear Martha, I know you can produce, some on-topic, decent arguments, instead of cheap ad-hominem and sexist attacks. I know you can do better!
Love  :-*

Wiseman?

Oh you mean the Harvard professor George Santayana, who said Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

Yes, that Wiseman, indeed. Yours is the original form.

597
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: February 28, 2022, 11:26 »

As we all know, NATO gone too far with its expansion towards Russia. And Russia is not Japan, Serbia, Libya, Iraq or Vietnam. There is no problem, all ex Soviet Union countries are now independent. There is hate from the West, it has always been.

No, WE don't know that.

It's not NATO, it's the democratic free will of those countries, who freely opted and voted to join an alliance able to ensure their independence.

And the independence of former Soviet republics is only real for those ex-soviet republics that are today protected by NATO, like the Baltic countries.

Georgia's independence has been trampled by Russian tanks, the Russian army is still occupying Moldovan territory, Belarus's "independence" is a joke.

And we can all see what's going on with Ukraine's independence...

#russiantrollalert

598
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: February 28, 2022, 10:08 »

A wise man once said: "Those Who Do Not Learn History Are Doomed To Repeat It"



History Does Not Repeat Itself, But It Rhymes   ;)

That's a good one, Thijs!
Unfortunately, it also "rhymes" for those who do learn from history.  :(

599
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: February 28, 2022, 10:06 »
PS. My dear Martha, I know you can produce, some on-topic, decent arguments, instead of cheap ad-hominem attacks. I know you can do better! Love  :-*

I have nothing to gain from producing "some on-topic, decent arguments." There's no point. Not worth the bother.

And it is you, darling Zero, who produces cheap ad-hominem attacks.

Pathetic way to deal with fellow human beings. Just pathetic.

I fully intend to keep calling you out.

Yes, indeed: you have nothing now.
But I know you can do better than sexist and ad-hominem attacks.
I believe in you, Martha!

Love!
 :-*

600
Off Topic / Re: Will the Russia/Ukraine war affect sales?
« on: February 28, 2022, 09:53 »
Good point.

Let's continue the history lesson with the shameful "percentage agreement" when Churchill, the "war hero", sold in cold blood, the east of Europe to Stalin, a man who murdered millions on a national scale.



In case you can't read Churchill's handwriting:

Romania
 -Russia 90%
 -The others 10%
Greece
-Great Britain (in accord with USA) 90%
 -Russia 10% (he scratched "the Others" and replaced it with Russia)
Yugoslavia 50-50%
Hungary 50-50%
Bulgaria
 -Russia 75%
 -The others 25%"

The checkmark is Stalin's.

I have to admit that this is worse than leaving Ukraine on her own devices, in the fight with another Russian tyrant, but fundamentally it's similar to what we see today.


You cannot compare now to 80 years ago. that is simply bonkers, in fact that is what Putin is doing now and he is as mad as a box of frogs.

Lets just put this in perspective, times change and the world and societies were very different 80+ years ago, you miss all the nuance, pressures and the pragmatic decisions that were made for reasons at the time.

A wise man once said: "Those Who Do Not Learn History Are Doomed To Repeat It"

... and "strangely", history repeats itself. :(

Edit: My dear Martha, I know you can produce, some on-topic, decent arguments, instead of cheap ad-hominem and sexist attacks. I know you can do better!
Love  :-*

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