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Author Topic: Stock market default / reset - is it possible?  (Read 3788 times)

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Ron

« on: May 01, 2014, 15:56 »
+1
Hi all,

In the gist of the race to the bottom thats going on and momentarily being led by Fotolia, I have a question.

When a country defaults everything goes tits up, and everything will be reset and they start to build up again. Would something be possible in microstock?

For example the race to the bottom causes a chain effect, pricing goes rock bottom, earnings collapse, contributors stop producing, portfolios are being deleted. And then demand with outgrow supply and prices go up again, people start submitting again, and earnings go up, and we are all getting rich again.

Is it possible?


« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2014, 16:03 »
+1
I'd say no.   Or at least not for a very long time.

There's currently a vast oversupply of images, and they don't age very rapidly, or go bad sitting on the shelf, which would create demand for new work.  It would take years for that stock of images to become significantly obsolete in some way (technical standards, clothing and hair styles...).   Until then that oversupply will hold down prices because you can never get more than a tiny percentage of producers to cooperate in actions that weaken the position of the middlemen.

Current web technology and copyright law don't facilitate direct sales.   Buyers still expect to go to a single "web site" to shop for images of known quality and guaranteed usage rights.  A new market model has to evolve before the grip of today's middlemen can be broken.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2014, 16:20 by stockastic »

« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2014, 16:28 »
+5
I think that is exactly what is coming. It will start in the niches and maybe illustration first. At some point it won't make any sense to upload to the big guys. Then as it progresses deleting from the sub sites will follow as people start seeing them as stealing sales from better paying sites. Eventually the better product will be somewhere else and the customers will follow. With millions and millions of images it might take a while though. Seems to me like we are approaching the tipping point where contributors are about to not take it anymore. It's not worth it for new guys and the established guys are starting to get fed up and are looking for alternatives. Eventually those alternatives will start appearing more and more frequently.

« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2014, 16:39 »
+1
But when there is a bottom race and the buyer wants cheaper prices why not a squeeze out of the agencies? They totaly superflous in web 2.0. We have to use Symbiostock. Thats it!

« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2014, 16:47 »
+3
I'm a huge fan of Symbiostock and it works great for me. But it really is more of a foundation than an actual vehicle for change. There are a lot of possibilities to build great things off of this starting point but it will take very motivated people getting together to move Symbiostock beyond being just a good platform for individual sites. I think eventually small groups of contributors will gather together to build their own co-ops or pseudo agencies with Symbio as a basis. We aren't there yet though because people aren't ready for that next step. It's coming though. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 2-5 years.

Ron

« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2014, 16:50 »
+1
I'd say no.   Or at least not for a very long time.

There's currently a vast oversupply of images, and they don't age very rapidly, or go bad sitting on the shelf, which would create demand for new work.  It would take years for that stock of images to become significantly obsolete in some way (technical standards, clothing and hair styles...).   Until then that oversupply will hold down prices because you can never get more than a tiny percentage of producers to cooperate in actions that weaken the position of the middlemen.

Current web technology and copyright law don't facilitate direct sales.   Buyers still expect to go to a single "web site" to shop for images of known quality and guaranteed usage rights.  A new market model has to evolve before the grip of today's middlemen can be broken.
If portfolios are being pulled then the images are no longer there on the agency. At some point demand will be bigger than supply. Unless everyone moves on and let their port sit on the agencies. The trick is to lower the supply for the prices to rise again.

farbled

« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2014, 16:54 »
+1
I'm a huge fan of Symbiostock and it works great for me. But it really is more of a foundation than an actual vehicle for change. There are a lot of possibilities to build great things off of this starting point but it will take very motivated people getting together to move Symbiostock beyond being just a good platform for individual sites. I think eventually small groups of contributors will gather together to build their own co-ops or pseudo agencies with Symbio as a basis. We aren't there yet though because people aren't ready for that next step. It's coming though. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 2-5 years.

Yep, I can see this happening. Symbiostock for me is a platform, like Ktools. The networking side is something that is built by the user(s) and there can be as many as people want. You still have to go find your own customers for the most part. That's where people get frustrated.

I'm trying to get all of my work onto my own sites and off the micros )except one or two). Then I will feel more prepared for whatever comes to this industry.

« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2014, 17:04 »
+2
I'd say no.   Or at least not for a very long time.

There's currently a vast oversupply of images, and they don't age very rapidly, or go bad sitting on the shelf, which would create demand for new work.  It would take years for that stock of images to become significantly obsolete in some way (technical standards, clothing and hair styles...).   Until then that oversupply will hold down prices because you can never get more than a tiny percentage of producers to cooperate in actions that weaken the position of the middlemen.

Current web technology and copyright law don't facilitate direct sales.   Buyers still expect to go to a single "web site" to shop for images of known quality and guaranteed usage rights.  A new market model has to evolve before the grip of today's middlemen can be broken.
If portfolios are being pulled then the images are no longer there on the agency. At some point demand will be bigger than supply. Unless everyone moves on and let their port sit on the agencies. The trick is to lower the supply for the prices to rise again.
I think the agencies are counting on the fact that they have so many images that they are invincible to mass deletions. However, if they continue to lower prices and they aren't getting quality new content the low prices and reduced customers are going to cause them serious problems. One day I am going to wake up and read here on MSG that one of the big guys is just gone. The current ownership is bankrupt and nobody wants to salvage the pieces. That will be a very interesting day.

Ron

« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2014, 17:09 »
0
...... One day I am going to wake up and read here on MSG that one of the big guys is just gone. The current ownership is bankrupt and nobody wants to salvage the pieces. That will be a very interesting day.

Yeah, I have that feeling for a while now, mostly about IS. Something is up, agencies are changing a lot in their business model. Seems the struggle has started and I think at some point one of them falls over. I have added FT to the list now. At some point a few have to fall over. This cant go on for ever. And thats when the reset starts to happen.

I wonder what happens to the earnings. I could see them tell their contributors tough luck, you are not getting paid we dont have the money.

« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2014, 17:22 »
+5
I see Istock as more along the lines of being neglected to the point that it just sort of withers away. But Fotolia or DP seem like good candidates for just not being there one day. Not so much the low earners because I think they have figured out how to operate on whatever sales they get. As a small business owner I see a lot of similarities between my business and these smaller agencies. I can see them being very efficient and operating at a profit even with their apparent lack of sales. I bet they sell more than enough to make money for themselves. (FWIW - Most of these guys are not supporting the race to the bottom). Who knows... maybe they will be the ones who survive.

stocked

« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2014, 17:31 »
0
...... One day I am going to wake up and read here on MSG that one of the big guys is just gone. The current ownership is bankrupt and nobody wants to salvage the pieces. That will be a very interesting day.

Yeah, I have that feeling for a while now, mostly about IS. Something is up, agencies are changing a lot in their business model. Seems the struggle has started and I think at some point one of them falls over. I have added FT to the list now. At some point a few have to fall over. This cant go on for ever. And thats when the reset starts to happen.

I wonder what happens to the earnings. I could see them tell their contributors tough luck, you are not getting paid we dont have the money.
Thanks I requested my payouts immediately!

Ron

« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2014, 01:31 »
0
I see Istock as more along the lines of being neglected to the point that it just sort of withers away. But Fotolia or DP seem like good candidates for just not being there one day. Not so much the low earners because I think they have figured out how to operate on whatever sales they get. As a small business owner I see a lot of similarities between my business and these smaller agencies. I can see them being very efficient and operating at a profit even with their apparent lack of sales. I bet they sell more than enough to make money for themselves. (FWIW - Most of these guys are not supporting the race to the bottom). Who knows... maybe they will be the ones who survive.
I think you make a good point there.

« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2014, 02:05 »
0
yes there is no need for big mass agencies in future. I also think apart from Symbiostock will that thinking going forward.
Why do we need agencies today?

1. They make the billing for us.
2. They resolve for us the technical problems to run our own website.
3. They make promotion and generate buyers (The new promoter in future is Google not an Agency).

But these three points are less important in future cause it will be easier for contributors to do that by yourselfe.

Specialized agencies will be always exist in my opinion. Cause they take it down to a specific theme to find the buyers rare pictures.
And these buyers, it does not come so much on the price.



« Last Edit: May 02, 2014, 05:53 by R2D2 »

« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2014, 04:55 »
0
yes there is no need for big mass agencies in future. I also think apart from Symbiostock will that thinking going forward.
Why do we need agencies today?

1. They make the billing for us.
2. They resolve for us the technical problems to run our own website.
3. They make promotion and generate buyers (The new promoter in future is Google not an Agency).

But these three points are less important in future cause it will be easier to do it yourself.

Specialized agencies will be always exist in my opinion. Cause they take it down to a specific theme to find the buyers rare pictures.
And these buyers, it does not come so much on the price.

I think in a different dimension the current version of the stock market could have worked forever. As a graphic designer primarily, I know that all designers love imagery, and good imagery is even better. Most businesses don't have the means to produce their own. But, ALL businesses need it. Yeah, some steal it, actually many ... As do many graphic artists. Which is why it's increasingly important to have all of the watchful eyes here that we do.

If we'd have spun this around ... Maybe, when web browsers could start displaying images(or when people started painting in caves). Made people more aware that many things are the property of someone else ... and combined that with the simple idea that cheaper isn't generally better ... crap runs downhill ...

« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2014, 05:17 »
0
The claim that quality has its price should be our first message to the customers. The waste-can perhaps continue to buy at mass agenicies but not in the premium Symbiostock-sector ;D!

There will always be a need of stockimages, I think this market will also rise yet and in future.

But mass agencies simply superfluous, the contracts may be concluded directly between contributor and buyer in the future.
Mass Agencies are an outdated model.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2014, 05:21 by R2D2 »

« Reply #15 on: May 02, 2014, 05:24 »
+3
There won't be any 'default' or 'reset'. Microstock will increasingly become not worth producing new images for. In some niche categories we are already at that point. The world simply does not need any more images of some subjects. There are already enough and if you produce more of them then you will make very little money if any at all.

I wonder for how much longer agencies will continue to 'invest' in new content at the current rate. For example SS are approving new content at the rate of 300K per week. If each image costs say 10c to review and there is a 75% acceptance rate then they will be paying about $40K per week for reviewing those images. That's $2M per year. SS can certainly afford that but it might be of more concern for smaller agencies.

I'd assume that it will be the 'photo factories' that will be forced to scale down their operations before individual contributors. They tend to have much higher overheads and production costs. The return on capital invested in new shoots will surely lengthen to the point when it won't be worth doing so any more.

I guess one of the early indicators of such a crisis will be a reduction in SS's "new images approved this week". Currently that number is still increasing, which suggests the market is 'healthy'. When it starts to reduce it may mean that contributors are not finding it worthwhile to produce new content.


 

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